Round 20 Preview

 Last Week           5/9           Season Total      113/162

 I’m pleasurably writing this while waiting for Rory to tee off at The Open Championship.  As I’ve gotten older, I’ve had a marked shift in my interest from footy to golf.  I didn’t watch any footy on the weekend and to be honest, didn’t really miss it.  To that point, I started to dive deeper into golf stats and wanted to understand what LIV has done to those golfers.  It’s not good.  Almost without exception (there are always outliers), they have all had a dramatic decline in their strokes gained since leaving the PGA and joining LIV.  What could be the cause?  Is it the fact that LIV is 54 instead of 72 holes?  No, their strokes gained are just as bad over those first three days.  Could it be that they’re not as comfortable in the pressure cooker of a Major tournament without drunken loud fans and blaring music?  Maybe?  Or is it just that they get their payday anyway, whether they do any good or not, so there is no incentive to advance that approach, correct that chip, practice that putt or develop that drive.  One things for sure, in my mind anyway, LIV has been very poor for golf and by extension, us viewers.

Anyway, back in the AFL (another product on the decline?), the season is tapering to its inevitably pointy end.  Some teams aren’t managing big boy month well and some are.  Let’s dive in. 

Hawthorn vs Carlton      MCG      Thursday Night

The Blues joined the winner’s list, and you could literally hear the valve release just a little bit of pressure before slamming shut again.  Hawthorn used their York Park advantage effectively and Ginnivan was also able to effectively be the annoying little jerk he likes to be.  Hawthorn have won the last couple of encounters with these two and by healthy margins too.  Carlton may have some extra motivation this week with Sam Docherty calling time on his career.  He’s had a strange journey broken up by three knee reconstructions and 2 bouts of testicular cancer (can you get it more than twice?)  While there was some improvement in Carlton last week, Hawthorn wants to stay in the race so it’s a bit hard to see a situation where Carlton wins this one.  But you never know what passion can do.  Docherty is a much-loved member.  Hawthorn by 28 points.

Essendon vs Footscray  Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

The first of a Friday Night double-header.  A lots been said about the AFL scheduling all these Essendon games for Friday / Thursday prime time slots.  I mean they were pretty ordinary when they drew up this back half schedule so who knows what they were thinking?  Footscray will be looking forward to playing a team outside the 8, who they know they can beat.  Footscray by 89 points.

GWS vs Sydney                                Showgrounds    Friday Night

Is it rivalry round?  It seems like all the states are playing intra-state matches this week.  The first is this battle of the bridge match.  Sydney still seems hell bent on causing chaos for top 8 hopefuls while leaving the door open by one or two femtometres to appease the fans.  GWS are starting to roll like the heavyweights we know they are and will be keen to not only end Sydney’s chances but secure themselves a top 4 chance.  They’ll want to be careful though as Sydney has an excellent record at the Showgrounds.  GWS by 18 points.

Gold Coast vs Brisbane                 Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon

Now is the time for Gold Coast to show their finals credentials.  If they want to be taken seriously, they need to beat Brisbane in their Gold Coast sanctuary.  They got a lesson from Adelaide last weekend and need to take the lessons from that match into this one.  Brisbane showed Footscray the ropes last week but never truly had the game sewn up until the very end.  They’re getting it done but still don’t seem convincing.  Gold Coast by 11 points.

Fremantle vs West Coast             Perth Stadium   Saturday Afternoon

A stirring victory by Freo last week overcoming a 22 point deficit in the last to snatch victory by the barest of margins and turning a bit of heat up on the Pies.  West Coast got a pasting from Richmond in a bottom of the ladder clash as they dribble to the line at the end of the season.  The big news for West Coast is that Harley has provided the means to stay an Eagle by presenting them with a price tag.  I’d be thinking I’d want to stay around there too if I was getting $20M or more.  But money isn’t everything.  If West Coast plans it right, they can invest in a father-son future too.  As The Beach Boys said,

The West Coast has the sunshine
And the girls all get so tanned
I dig a French bikini on the Cottesloe sand
Dolls by a Norfolk Pine on the land.

Or something like that.  Anything to get that stupid Heave Ho Freo song out of your head.  Fremantle by 43 points.

North Melbourne vs Geelong    Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

Here’s another push over match for Geelong.  North Melbourne kept Sydney’s dream alive last week while Geelong marched on through the wave of little league matches they have lined up.  North will be trying to get something out of the end of the season but all they’ll get out of this is how to hand 4 points over.  Geelong by 27 points.

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide           Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Showdown number 58 with the overall score at 29 to 28 in Adelaide’s favour.  They say this might be a good time for Ken to bow out and hand over the reigns to Carr so he can get some early prep work into the team.  It provides a nice opportunity to say goodbye to the fans.  It’s a shame its an Adelaide home game as he won’t get the goodbye he would be thinking.  A shellacking followed by some animated salutes from the Adelaide folk is what he should expect.  Adelaide by 33 points.

Richmond vs Collingwood           MCG      Sunday Afternoon

It was a good win on the road for a young Richmond side and a tight but unrewarding finish for Collingwood at home against Freo.  I have to stop writing this early in the week because I then go and change my tips based on what happens afterwards.  The Collingwood match was another example.  When I saw the teams showed Moore as the only tall down back with Amiss, Tracey, Voss and Jackson floating it, it was not going Collingwood’s way as Freo’s midfield would still generate enough supply.  Especially as Moore is not a lockdown defender, evidenced by Voss’s 6 goals.  Anyway, the Pies will start to get troops back over the next couple of weeks and should just about be at the end of McRae’s patented “pre-finals heavy training block” so maybe they will have a bit more energy this week.  But then again, maybe they’re just old and slow as we thought early in the season and they have the dreaded wobbles.  Richmond will tell us more.  Collingwood by 22 points.

Saint Kilda vs Melbourne            Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight

At the time of writing, the outcome of Steven May is still pending.  It didn’t look malicious to me.  The outcome was pretty devastating for the Carlton lad, but I didn’t see May trying to put the hurt on.  If anything, he made his arm go limp in an effort to lessen the impact.  David King is an idiot, saying he picked him off.  Sometimes I wish that guy would shut up.  Almost as bad as Kane Cornes.  Steven May or not (and most likely not) I don’t think it will help them against Saint Kilda.  Saints by 16 points.