Richmond vs Carlton MCG Thursday
Night
The 2023 season kicks off with the
traditional firecracker match between Richmond
and Carlton. When the AFL first came up with this great
idea (well the clubs did – the AFL just said, yes) it quickly turned into a
disaster as Richmond were a perennial 9th placed team and Carlton
were doing ok after their recovery from their Salary Cap breach in 2002. Then it was just as much a disaster as Richmond built their dynasty while Carlton languished. But these clubs have consistently opened the
season every year since 2007 (except 2014 when they played in Round 2 for some
reason). How will these teams shape up
for the year? Time will tell…or maybe
statistics can tell us. Based on
previous results, the margin is likely to be between 20 and 30 points But more likely to be 28 points if Carlton win and more likely to be 20 points if Richmond win. Confused?
Just tip Carlton
by 23 points
Geelong vs
Collingwood MCG Friday Night
If you talk to any Collingwood supporter
worth their salt they’ll tell you straight away that this is the Grand Final we
should have had in 2022. Any Geelong supporter will
then retort, “Which we would have won.”
The Geelong
supporter might be right too. The Cats
have beaten the Pies 7 of the last 9 matches (or 10 matches if you prefer round
numbers) and you’d have to go all the way back to Collingwood’s premiership
year in 2010 to find a time when Collingwood beat Geelong in a final. It’s been different off-seasons for the two
teams with Geelong saying goodbye to some club champions/future coaches and
Collingwood spending more time dealing with ‘mates’ filming mates and shopping
that footage around for profit… Jack needs some better mates. Ollie Henry has gone to join his brother at Geelong and that kind of
turncoat switching could be the deciding factor…cue the boos. Collingwood by 6…poetic.
North Melbourne vs West Coast Marvel
Stadium Saturday Morning
For most, this contest holds about as much
interest as a sea sponge migration, but North Melbourne
supporters will be watching intently to see if Clarkson can pick this once
mighty club up off the canvas. West
Coast supporters will be watching intently to see if their players look fit and
interested. But daylight savings means
that for West Coast supporters at least, bouncedown is before pub opening times
so drowning their sorrows to a poor season start will be a little more
difficult. North
Melbourne by 11.
Port Adelaide
vs Brisbane Adelaide Oval Saturday Afternoon
A few Port Adelaide stalwarts chose to go
around again and if vision of them in the pre-season matches is anything to go
by, they probably shouldn’t have. In the
meantime Brisbane
shed some talent during the off-season, which may have the effect of
streamlining their talent pool, although that pool can be pretty shallow if
injuries bite as the season wears on.
The Lions have been knocking for a while now and it is only so long that
continued unanswered doors are walked away from. Interestingly, these two teams have not
squared off at Adelaide Oval since 2019, probably due to Covid, but when they
do play there Port usually trounce the Lions (in fairly recent history,
anyway). On the strength of that, Port
Adelaide by 29.
Melbourne vs
Western Bulldogs MCG Saturday Night
It’s difficult to reconcile these teams
form since the 2021 Grand Final. I was
at that game and felt it was a tense contest, except for the last 15
minutes. Since then, Melbourne have had in-fighting and teams
seemed to work them out a bit last year such that they were beaten twice on
their home deck by visiting teams to go out in straight sets. The Bulldogs on the other hand fell away so
much that they only just scraped into the 8 and were forced to travel to
Fortress Freo. Melbourne will be stinging more from their
straight sets exit last year and will be looking to put an early stamp on this
season. Melbourne by 38 points.
Gold Coast vs Sydney Heritage Bank Stadium Saturday
Night
It’s that time of year again. The time when we read the fixture and see a
new Stadium name we have never heard of and wonder where that could be so we
look it up and find out it’s just a new incarnation of Carrara Oval. Back in the late 80’s and 90’s it would have
been great to go there and see the likes of Ablett, Dunstall, Beasley and
Daicos kicking bags against the struggling Brisbane Bears. Now it is just a passing interest to see the
progress of one of the AFL’s pet projects and in this case against one of their
most successful relocations. Gold Coast
importantly need to get those early wins on the board to help drive revenue in
the right direction but Sydney need to make a statement following last years
Grand Final debacle otherwise external scrutiny will be turned up a few
notches. For that reason alone, Sydney will not want that added pressure so Sydney
by 35 points.
Greater Western Sydney vs Adelaide GIANTS Stadium Sunday Morning
A Sunday morning game and here in WA this
is an even earlier start at 10am thanks to Daylight Savings. Adelaide
will be travelling over to Giants Stadium, aka Showground. This has not been a happy hunting ground for Adelaide since their off
season camp (funny I can point to that as a moment in time like BC/AD) although
there is barely enough data points to call it a viable sample set. Adelaide
looked pretty sharp in the pre-season, if you can rely on that as good
input. I see this as a battle of two
teams who were embarrassed by Richmond
in a Grand Final, both of which, never really recovered. I’m going to pick Adelaide by 9 points
but only because I have some friends that will be excited about that.
Hawthorn vs Essendon MCG Sunday
Afternoon
The AFL has put together a pretty stellar
season start and this is one of the ‘celebrations of Victorian Footy’ that they
have included in Round 1. After the
Hawthorn Dynastic years, times have been lean and more so in recent years. A big cleanout in the off season and an
injection of youth might be just what was needed. Essendon have been in no-mans-land since the
peptide dramas an AFL career ago and years of promise have fallen short time
again. What will we see on this Sunday
afternoon? Hopefully a close and
somewhat spiteful game as promised by the Bombers players in the lead-up talk
to this one. Maybe this is their
year? Sounds like a strong enough reason
for a tip. Bombers by 25 points.
Saint Kilda vs Fremantle Marvel Stadium Sunday Twilight
Match of the round? Maybe not, but with Ross Lyon back at the
helm of a club, it’s sure to be the press conference of the round. I don’t think that Saint Kilda have the
firepower to overcome a rising Fremantle.
Will Ross resort to his, drag the game down to such low heights that anyone
can win to give his team a chance or has he learned something in his time away
from the coal face? Longmuir has some
new weaponry in his arsenal with Luke Jackson returning to the state and a fit
Fyfe freely fumbling forward forays.
Given that Justin has already heard everything that goes on inside the
Saints box, I think Ross will likely get schooled in modern football…and
OneDrive. Fremantle by 46 points.
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