Round 11 AFL Preview

  Last Week           5/9           Season Total      57/91   Another average week last week.   The footy at the moment is troubling for tipping.   It could easily have been worse with Adelaide almost pipping the Pies and Hawthorn losing the unlosable.   The worst thing is that I invented all of these tools which I meticulously maintain to try to help me navigate this world of upsets and inequitable fixtures but then I haven’t really been using them.   I’ve been running this show on “feelings,” and it appears my feelings are seriously hurt.   So, it will be a bit of self-flagellation this week followed by a strict adherence to the code!...unless it just doesn’t feel right. Speaking of codes…decoding Brian Taylor is a part-time hobby of mine.   His commentary can, at times, be inflammatory and unintelligible.   But here are some things I have learned: A Chiseler:                                                 A drop punt A back-spinning chiseler:                   A drop punt A sli

Round 10 AFL Preview

  Last Week           4/9           Season Total      52/82   Please note:  It is, of course Sir Doug Nicholls Round and for the next two weeks you might see your teams name revert to its indigenous form. I just don’t know about this season anymore.  The choices seemed obvious leading into the round, but the only top 4 team to win their game was Sydney, and some extenuating circumstances around Fremantle’s state of mind may have contributed to that.  An appropriate aphorism is that this season is harder to pick than a broken nose.  Or is it that I’m just unlucky, in which case the aphorism would be, I’m so unlucky that if I fell into a barrel full of nipples, I’d come out sucking my thumb.  Ok, so not technically an aphorism but ChatGPT gave me the green light to work it in. Then we had our second draw of the season.  I only got to see the last 3 minutes of the match, which was the important bit, so it was a little exciting.  All this means that the ladder is pretty cramped with

Round 9 AFL Preview

Last Week           6/9           Season Total      48/73   I love stats, as you well know.   And I love the way people interpret them.   I watched with amusement, one of the footy programs during the week and the journalist was pressing this issue in the game that there have been 73 less free kicks for holding the ball to this time than last year.   He posed this head scratcher to Ross Lyon and framed it as “The Game is in Crisis.”   Ross Lyon simply said, “what’s that, 1 free kick per game?   I wouldn’t think that’s statistically significant.”   Loved it!   Unperturbed, the journalist pushed on still remarking the game is in crisis.   Afterall, it’s a better story than statistically insignificant. This weekend is Mother’s Day.   So, make sure you do something special.   The AFL has done something special by arranging for the top four teams to play the next four teams in the top eight to make for an exciting weekend where we can ignore our mother’s and watch a scintillating clash.

Round 8 AFL Preview

  Last Week           7/9           Season Total      42/64   Last week was a much better week than the previous one.  A score of 7 is respectable, but in a week where most got 8 or 9, I am left ruing my decision to trust Carlton, but was ok with the draw.  No one tips a draw and depending on your competition rules, you either got that as a win or a loss.  I was only one point off in my tip there and if Langford had’ve kicked straight, I would have been a classic smiling smug bastard.  But then if Jamie Elliott could take a mark, maybe the Pies would’ve won.  Ok, ok, I agree, Jamie Elliott can take a mark.  It was a good effort and reminded me a lot of myself (yeah, right!)  Of course, this brings up the age old debate about whether the AFL should allow draws or use extra time.  Golden Point was also touted as a solution, as was a good old game of DONKEY.  I found the debate interesting as it seemed to me that everyone (after the dust settled) was ok with having draws in our system a

Round 7 AFL Preview

  Last Week           2/8           Season Total      35/55   The competition keeps throwing us some curveball results in an effort to confuse and annoy us tipsters.   So confusing are the results that even my Statistical Leviathan thinks that Saint Kilda is the best team in the league currently (not from what I saw on the weekend) and Carlton aren’t even in the best 8 teams (not from what I saw on the weekend).   The worst thing about that is that I rely on the Statistical Leviathan when things aren’t obvious as it was designed to straighten up those curveballs.   But here we are after a very embarrassing score of 2 for the weekend with a gigantic statistical model I have been meticulously maintaining for 7 years and I just can’t trust it.   It’s also not lost on me that the only tips I got right last weekend, according to my preview, were because of house prices and ants. So, after such a poor tipping result last weekend, I say welcome to the Round 7 Preview – Hindsight Edition.

Round 6 AFL Preview

  Last Week           5/8           Season Total      33/47   The AFL has a habit of throwing up a lot of stories every week that can be written about.   And certainly, they get written about…a lot.   But perhaps not as much as the stories that don’t require being written about…journalists seem to write a lot about those ones too.   I imagine journalists have KPI’s about how many articles they write so they have to find stupid stories to write about.   I recall I had a job where the number of social media posts I did was a KPI.   I failed that KPI a lot.   The one time I achieved it I wrote a bunch of posts about ants.   My job has nothing to do with ants, I just know much about them, nevertheless, I wrote the posts, and they ticked the box that I achieved my KPI’s which kinda makes you wonder what businesses REALLY care about.   And journalists ask some ridiculous questions sometimes.   The other week a journalist, waiting patiently to ask his one question, finally got his chance wi