Round 5 AFL Preview
Your intrepid Previewer is away for a couple of weeks so the Previews for Round 5 and 6 have been done ahead of time. I’ll be about as far away from technology as humans can possibly be in this country and I’ll have no way of knowing what’s been happening in the AFL and what backflips either Analysts or Fredericks have been doing.
Adelaide vs Carlton Adelaide Oval Thursday Night
It’s Gather Round. Billed as a way to bring everyone together in
one place, during a pandemic, to see how we all get along? I see Gather Round as an experiment. Not in the medical pandemic sense where
people in lab coats are calculating R numbers and publishing papers just when
the P-value hits the specific spot that proves their hypothesis. No, this is an experiment where we say…”Hey,
Ed Sheeran! You think your Sheerios can
‘F-up’ an oval? Well we will play 6
games of footy in 3 days on one ground and show how to REALLY F-up an
oval.” This is the first of those 6
matches. At this point, I’ll be with the
wife and kids, likely on a boat in the middle of the ocean, trying to catch the
mother of all Dhufish. So really, I won’t
be too worried about the result of this one.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast
When I start talking about the inequities of the AFL with my mates we generally arrive at the same conclusions. You see, most teams enjoy a home ground advantage and all teams don’t play every team twice, so depending on who you draw in the fixtures and where and when and whether it is a great revenue raiser for the AFL, you’re just never going to get an equal competition. These inequities were the driving reason for me building a gigantic statistical model to try and even out all of these little uneven bits to try and work out who would win in a fair fight. The conclusion always reached is that the only way we will really find out is if all the teams gathered in the one spot on the same weekend and played each other on neutral grounds. Finally, the AFL are doing it! I can get some tangible evidence that the 8,000 hours I’ve spent gathering statistics, building models, testing, re-testing, building interfaces and losing my hair have not been a colossal waste. And yet, the AFL, in their wisdom, scheduled the event in the days leading up to a total solar eclipse, which is of greater statistical significance, so I won’t be around to verify any of this. On average, a total solar eclipse happens in any given area once every 375 years…and the AFL nailed it!!! So, I’m sorry to all of you. I have at my disposal the greatest statistical model ever seen by man, for predicting the outcome of a match between two sides on a neutral ground whom have both come from time zones different to that which the game is being played in, and I am unable to consult it to give you a true and accurate outcome of this match, so I’m relying on a straight up guess. Gold Coast by 6 points.
I heard Gil saying earlier in the year that
this was it. “I’ll stay at the helm
until Gather Round and then I’ll ride off into the sunset while you put some
fresh meat into this grinder.” It
appears not so. Either Gil is reluctant
to leave or no fresh meat is forthcoming.
We, the people, are left to suffer the pressed ham that has fallen to
the back of the crisper and collected some white spots and a greasy surface. But that’s ok…Nutsy will eat it, if we all
chip in $5 each. On the whole, this
should be a pretty good match. It’s a
shame I’ll be 6 hours from civilization with nothing but a satellite phone in
case things go wrong. But is it a
This game here is the one you come to
Gather Round for. Make a day of it. Head up in the morning, sample some lovely
wines, watch the footy and then stop in at the German village for a couple of
Steins of lager, a bratwurst, and some sauerkraut. I’ll be thinking of you while I’m spending 13
hours in the car driving from the middle of nowhere to the middle of another
nowhere. The game itself won’t be much
to look at it, but the beauty of the Adelaide Hills will compensate.
A bonnie afternoon down at Adelaide
Oval. If you left the Adelaide Hills
early enough and bypassed the steins and sausages, you might be able to make it
just in time for this one. You’d want a
Porsche though…maybe you can find a
Inspired scheduling by the AFL here. A double-header. The crowd will be filled with a mix of
Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Bulldog fans. The great thing about an all-you-can-eat
buffet is you can just focus on the things you want to eat. The AFL will just keep serving it up. After the hard fought contest between the
Dons and the D’s, you’ll barely have the smell of Deep Heat out of your
nostrils when you’ll be assaulted by the smell of fresh Elastoplast strapping
as the Power and Doggies take to the field.
However, the trick with the Buffet is working out just how long the
crayfish has been sitting in the steam tray.
The objective observers from Essendon and Melbourne will be treated to
the performance of the rabid Port Adelaide supporters…I suggest this is the
time you head out and find another spot for dessert. Now’s the time to avoid
If you’re turning up to this game, you’re
probably going to be sitting in stunned amazement at the ground staff for the
clean up job after back-to-back games the day before. All the pie wrappers, the bamboo sporks, the
broken teeth and countless beer cups will be gone and all that will be left is
the feeling of slight unease from
Greater Western Sydney vs Hawthorn
Many learned readers who have been to
Collingwood vs St. Kilda
Last match of the round and the 6th match of the weekend on this Oval. The groundskeepers will be nervously watching this as the trampled surface will be rife with knee-exploding divots and ankle-bursting depressions. If they can get through to the final siren without incident there is an esky full of Coopers on offer. At the time of writing this, both Collingwood and St. Kilda are the two remaining teams without a loss. Will this still be the case coming into this one? Will this be a ding-dong top of the table clash? It’s the run and gun open and free style versus the Lyon Ligature. Which style will be triumphant? Collingwood by 19 points.