Last Week 2/9 Season Total 67/99
What a round of football that was. Scoring a 2/9 was so shameful that I have
dared not show my face around the office this week. COVID whipping though our house this week is
no excuse for poor tipping, although it may be the cause for some brevity in
this preview.
I trust that like most people I know who
read this, you don’t follow a word of it and were able to avoid the shame of
scoring a 2. Luckily, it was such an
ugly round for tipping in general that, for the most part, scoring a 2 only
dropped you back in the field by a single stroke. To continue Ross Lyon’s mantra, I’m going to
allow myself a mulligan on that one and strive to get a birdie on the
next. At least that’s what I can say
publicly. Behind closed doors there was
heavy analysis, harsh reviews and I’ve kicked my own arse amongst other methods
of self-flagellation. But after all
those reviews, I was able to come to the conclusion that it was not my
fault. Blame mostly lies with Carlton. And a little bit of blame to Melbourne,
Richmond, Geelong
and Footscray…but mostly Carlton. Fool me once, Carlton, shame on you, fool me 5 or 6 more
times though…
Anyway, lets see if I can pull a rabbit out
of the proverbial here this week.
Melbourne vs Carlton MCG Friday
Night
An Open letter to the Carlton Football
Club:
Dear Carlton,
FFS!
Yours sincerely,
The people of the world.
I started to watch the Carlton match last Friday and about halfway
through, I just felt an overwhelming depression and melancholy overtake
me. I had to change the channel
otherwise I’d need to take some mental health leave along with Dimma and
Clarko. I watched a reality show. I think so anyway. It’s hard to tell. These days they are so heavily scripted and
manipulated that they are pretty far from reality. Watching Melbourne, the next day was not a great
panacea. Both teams will be looking for
redemption this week with Carlton on a 4-game
losing streak and Melbourne
also losing their last 2. As far as Carlton and their backs being against the wall, I have come
to the conclusion that Carlton
are more of the outdoorsy type and simply don’t believe in walls. What bothers me the most about this is that Carlton has the potential
but are yet to show it. Maybe it will
take me tipping against them for them to show their abilities. That will infuriate me even more. Melbourne
by 17 points.
Port Adelaide
vs Hawthorn Adelaide Oval Saturday
Afternoon
Just how good are Port Adelaide? At home, I would say they are potentially
unbeatable (except by Adelaide),
but they’re yet to face a premiership fancy away from their home deck and beat
them. It’s hard to put something
together around that form and they may warrant a deeper investigation when I do
my mid-season review on them. Hawthorn
have hit a rich vein of form after a fantastic come from behind victory. Sicily had a
field day to rout the Saints in much the same way that Michael Corleone had a
field day at the end of Godfather Part I which is a nice connection back to Sicily. But Hawthorn, without Sicily and his thoughtless elbows, will not
be able to overcome Port Adelaide on their home ground. Port Adelaide by 28 points.
I can’t let Hawthorn pass without a comment
on the off-field issue. The AFL stepped
in and just wiped it all clean. It was a
pretty puzzling statement put out by Gillon.
It turns out if you don’t go looking for anything, you don’t find
anything (a fact my wife reminds me of constantly). This is something that is not going to sit
well with the media. Saying ‘there’s
nothing to see here’ is like giving the media a microscope and pulling your
pants down in an act of invitation. But
we’ve covered dacking this year already.
West Coast vs Collingwood Perth
Stadium Saturday Afternoon
It’s tough to make a case for West Coast
against Collingwood. A team that was
beaten by the then bottom team by 20 goals up against the top team in the
competition, albeit without champion midfielder Steele Sidebottom who has now
played 299.125 games. But West Coast did
beat Collingwood last year in one of their two wins in the last 30
matches. This was a game where West
Coast, desperate for a win to kick start the season, rolled out a bunch of
underdone senior players…they got the win, but the senior players have never
been able to get consistently on the park since then. However, I think Collingwood are taking an
extended mid-season break to rest up for the back end of the year. They’ll do enough to control the match and
get the win, but don’t expect any records to be broken. Collingwood by 59 points.
Footscray vs Geelong Marvel
Stadium Saturday Night
This is one of the games to watch this
weekend. Footscray will be stinging from
their narrow loss up in NT. Equally, Geelong will be keen to
atone for a rare home loss. Still
question marks over Geelong
with all their wins coming over the lower parts of the ladder and their losses
against the form sides continue to mount.
Even with all their home games on the run to the end of the season,
making finals will be a tough assignment now…but if they get there, the
potential to do some damage will be high.
Footscray by 11 points.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide TIO
Stadium Saturday Night
A great victory against Footscray up in NT
last week. For some reason, Dew has
become the focus of Hardwick speculation by the media, even though both Simpson
and Voss are struggling. If they
continue to chalk up the victories, this speculation will soon abate. Adelaide
equally had a great victory against Brisbane,
albeit at home. Both teams have a good
record at Marrara, and this is a true 50/50 proposition when looking at this
one. It’s great inside work versus silky
outside skills. I think the conditions
and the Dew (is that a double pun) will be the difference. Gold Coast by 9 points.
Greater Western Sydney vs Richmond GIANTS Stadium Sunday
Afternoon
Every week I check a teams record at a
ground to give me an inkling of how it might play out. That is except for teams playing at Kardinia Park,
no one wins there with regularity, except Geelong. It turns out except GWS too. My tips suffered from making such a bad
assumption. Future note. Richmond
was a bit lack-lustre and couldn’t get the job done against Port Adelaide, in
what was billed as the Hardwick Handover.
GWS are certainly a different team when Toby is up and about, and he
could very well be the difference in this game.
GWS by 23 points.
Essendon vs North
Melbourne Marvel Stadium Sunday Afternoon
North Melbourne had their moments last week, but Collingwood always seemed to be
able to keep them at arm’s length.
Meanwhile, it was Essendon’s turn to get in an extra training session
when they took on West Coast. Again, it
has been hard to make a case for North Melbourne
although they have a game that might trouble Essendon. North are a great clearance team and this
might give them enough impetus to be close enough to strike. A danger game for Essendon looms. Hopefully we see a game like Round 17, 1999. I still remember that game. Essendon won 158 to 132. Lloyd kicked 7 and Carey kicked 10. It’s sad to think most of the people playing
in this game would not have even been born.
Great, now I’m feeling old and depressed again. Essendon by 11 points.
Byes
We have entered the bye rounds. I’ll take this opportunity to do a quick
mid-season review of the teams. This
means I get to peer into my statistical model.
This model rates the way games are played and won or lost and where they
were played, what weather they were played in and who played in them. So sometimes a win by a team might just
become a loss in the model. For example,
only narrowly defeating an injury depleted side on your home ground might not
be a win when we try to evaluate the strength of a side. The model also uses a reward and penalty
process. So, losing to a team with a
lower power rating to you will incur a penalty rather than rewarding
points. Lastly, this model will take
into account games you’ve played and games you haven’t played. Let’s take a look.
Brisbane
Brisbane have had a barnstorming start to the season sees them with an 8-3
record in reality but a 9-2 record in The Model (I should give The Model a
name…other than Frankenstein). They have
been a very efficient team in both attack and defense, but their body of work
is built mostly on playing the better teams at home. The losses they have suffered this year are
twice in Adelaide
(Port and Adel) and Footscray down in their kennel. Brisbane’s
run home is slightly easier than their pre-bye matches so you would say, they
had a good draw and are destined for the top 4.
A double home final is probably on the cards which could see them slip
straight through to the big dance.
Saint Kilda
St. Kilda had a great start to the season
but have cooled a little in recent rounds.
A 7-4 start looks more like a 6-5 start when some penalties are
applied. A miserly defense has proved
them well, but they will need to settle quickly to maintain their spot in the
eight. Saint Kilda had one of the best
draws coming into the season and still have the best run of all teams coming
home. No excuses for the Saints and they
should scrape into the 8.
Sydney
Sydney has had a year to forget initially.
A spate of injuries, especially to key defenders meant that getting
traction in the season has been the realm of gutsy efforts. A 5-6 record is about par for them with few
adjustments happening in the model. Sydney’s run home is more
difficult than the run up to the bye.
Sitting just outside the 8 means someone in there will have to give way,
but his could be difficult. They get
some cattle back and they make the right moves and Sydney will be pushing for contention.
Fremantle
Fremantle also had a poor start to the
season. Bad enough to catch the ire of
the media. But underlying their 6-5
start is some good potential which has created a 7-4 start after
adjustments. However, they have a very
tough run home, especially in comparison to their matches up to now. On the verge of the top eight they will need
to play some very good football indeed in order to make the 8. But of those just outside the 8, trying to
get in they will be competing against Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast and maybe Carlton for a spot. Who will drop out from here?
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