Round 12 AFL Preview
Last Week 2/9 Season Total 67/99
What a round of football that was. Scoring a 2/9 was so shameful that I have dared not show my face around the office this week. COVID whipping though our house this week is no excuse for poor tipping, although it may be the cause for some brevity in this preview.
An Open letter to the Carlton Football Club:
The people of the world.
I started to watch the
Just how good are Port Adelaide? At home, I would say they are potentially
unbeatable (except by
I can’t let Hawthorn pass without a comment on the off-field issue. The AFL stepped in and just wiped it all clean. It was a pretty puzzling statement put out by Gillon. It turns out if you don’t go looking for anything, you don’t find anything (a fact my wife reminds me of constantly). This is something that is not going to sit well with the media. Saying ‘there’s nothing to see here’ is like giving the media a microscope and pulling your pants down in an act of invitation. But we’ve covered dacking this year already.
West Coast vs Collingwood
It’s tough to make a case for West Coast against Collingwood. A team that was beaten by the then bottom team by 20 goals up against the top team in the competition, albeit without champion midfielder Steele Sidebottom who has now played 299.125 games. But West Coast did beat Collingwood last year in one of their two wins in the last 30 matches. This was a game where West Coast, desperate for a win to kick start the season, rolled out a bunch of underdone senior players…they got the win, but the senior players have never been able to get consistently on the park since then. However, I think Collingwood are taking an extended mid-season break to rest up for the back end of the year. They’ll do enough to control the match and get the win, but don’t expect any records to be broken. Collingwood by 59 points.
This is one of the games to watch this
weekend. Footscray will be stinging from
their narrow loss up in NT. Equally,
Gold Coast vs
A great victory against Footscray up in NT
last week. For some reason, Dew has
become the focus of Hardwick speculation by the media, even though both Simpson
and Voss are struggling. If they
continue to chalk up the victories, this speculation will soon abate.
Greater Western Sydney vs
Every week I check a teams record at a
ground to give me an inkling of how it might play out. That is except for teams playing at
We have entered the bye rounds. I’ll take this opportunity to do a quick mid-season review of the teams. This means I get to peer into my statistical model. This model rates the way games are played and won or lost and where they were played, what weather they were played in and who played in them. So sometimes a win by a team might just become a loss in the model. For example, only narrowly defeating an injury depleted side on your home ground might not be a win when we try to evaluate the strength of a side. The model also uses a reward and penalty process. So, losing to a team with a lower power rating to you will incur a penalty rather than rewarding points. Lastly, this model will take into account games you’ve played and games you haven’t played. Let’s take a look.
St. Kilda had a great start to the season but have cooled a little in recent rounds. A 7-4 start looks more like a 6-5 start when some penalties are applied. A miserly defense has proved them well, but they will need to settle quickly to maintain their spot in the eight. Saint Kilda had one of the best draws coming into the season and still have the best run of all teams coming home. No excuses for the Saints and they should scrape into the 8.
Fremantle also had a poor start to the
season. Bad enough to catch the ire of
the media. But underlying their 6-5
start is some good potential which has created a 7-4 start after
adjustments. However, they have a very
tough run home, especially in comparison to their matches up to now. On the verge of the top eight they will need
to play some very good football indeed in order to make the 8. But of those just outside the 8, trying to
get in they will be competing against