Last Week 3/9 Season Total 119/171
Every now and then the competition throws
up a round of upsets. The important
thing is to be on that train when it arrives.
Sadly, I was not. But neither was
anyone else in the competitions I am in so damage was limited. The most irritating thing about it all was
that for the first time this season you could confidently sit down with the
ladder predictor and feel like your machinations would be correct. Then all of a sudden you have to waste more
time doing it all again!
This week was the start of retirement
season in the AFL. It started with a
bang when Buddy Franklin, injuring a calf, got the scans back that made him
pull the pin on his career. Like Buddy,
calf injuries ended my career early too.
Yep, you read that correctly, I just compared myself to Buddy
Franklin. I’d say that I was a lot like
Buddy in my short career in country footy, the only real differences were a
shit-tonne of ability and about 1040 goals (and perhaps about 8 inches in
height)…otherwise absolutely identical.
Regular readers will note I have been
urging you all to get along and see Lance in the flesh one more time. Those that were putting it off have now
missed out. I’m reminded of a Douglas
Adams book, “Last Chance to See” where he details the need to go and look at
(and protect) some of Earth’s wildlife before they are become extinct. Which points me to this quote, “Humans are
not an endangered species ourselves yet, but this is not for lack of trying.” Of course, this has absolutely nothing to do
with Buddy’s retirement but is an important bit of information to have. If you would like some evidence, spend 10
minutes on Tik Tok. Shannon Hurn also
pulled the retirement ripcord this week and he is likely just the first in a
number of departures we will see in the West this year. I’m sure there will be more retirements to
come in the next few weeks, and all I can say is get out to the footy over the
last few rounds of the season as this could be your last chance to see.
One of the other two major bits to come out
of the weekend was Touk’s tackle on Zorko’s tackle. Is this why they call it your tackle? There’s certainly no love lost between these
two players and the aftermath through the media has almost reached the same
heights as Johnny Bairstow versus…well…all of Australia. I’m hopeful to see the team sheet this week
with Zorko in the OUTS column with “bruised penis” or “squished scrotum” simply
because I think it would be funny. But
that’s the 15-year-old boy in me speaking.
The older gentleman in me crosses his legs and winces at the mere
thought of it.
Lastly, what in blazes are Port Adelaide
doing down there when it comes to head clashes!? Anyone looking at the vision of the
collision, in any time frame could tell that both those players needed a SCAT
test. I think maybe the doctor was
confused about the test. Spending all
that time waiting for a player to do a poo and then analysing that sample isn’t
really all that revealing for a head injury.
But perhaps this is what integrated medicine is these days. Me, I prefer a more classically trained
medical practitioner. Side note on this
subject, if you have put off that bowel kit you get after age 50…take my advice
and get it done. Now on one hand they
don’t do the test on a guy who was clearly unconscious, albeit briefly, and
send him back out again and the other guy they do the test on him and say he is
fine, and just sub him out with a migraine.
I’m not an expert in migraines but I’m thinking if you didn’t have one
before you got your head knocked in and then had one after your skull was
smashed, it’s probably related to the incident, and you shouldn’t play next
week either. Anyway, expect the AFL to
come down heavily, the fine to be rather large (the AFL will need the money for
the upcoming court cases), the club Doctor to be seeking new employment
opportunities next season and Kochie to be a man of ill-tempered disposition
for a few weeks. Hinkley better watch
out!
Speaking of knockouts, I see that the
Matildas made it through to the knockout rounds, Tayla Harris will be taking a
couple of weeks off pre-season training (presumably) and Australia lost
the last test.
What’s going on in the footy this week?
Footscray vs Richmond Marvel Stadium Friday
Night
It would seem that the Bulldogs just can’t
take a trick. Leading by a reasonable
margin last week they had the rest of their defence go down with injuries and
this allowed GWS to roll over them. The
Tigers were well in the match with Melbourne up
until about halfway through the last quarter when Melbourne juggernaughted their way to
victory. These two teams are separated
by half a game, and neither can afford a backward step here so the game will be
rich viewing indeed. But Richmond has a
well-documented dislike for Marvel Stadium and haven’t won a match there since
2021. Then again, they are getting
Footscray at a pretty good time with a backline bereft of anyone who does it on
a regular basis. So, what’s more
important, having no backline or not liking the ground? My theory here is that not liking a ground
affects your backline AND your forward line AND your midfield AND everything
else so Footscray by 16 points.
Not that it will change my tip, but given Richmond’s penchant for fast and furious
footy, I couldn’t help but notice their team sheet contains both Coulthard and
Mansell. If they pick up Raikkonen in
the draft, I’m going to get suspicious.
Essendon vs West Coast Marvel Stadium Saturday Afternoon
Finally for West Coast a second win on the
board. It looked like they were going to
romp it in, but a good fightback made the final quarter compelling
viewing. I saw the West Coast crowd rise
as one at final siren in jubilation, but I didn’t see the club song. Maybe someone can enlighten me, but how to do
you make a circle with 4 people and have 18 people in the middle to celebrate
their first win? Where do you get enough
Gatorade to shower 18 people with? West
Coast needs to be careful now. One more
victory like that and Harley Reed gets his non-public wish not to go West. That won’t be a problem this week with a game
away from home against the Dons.
Essendon will be keen for a win after three losses on the trot and they
really need this win to stay in contention.
Some percentage will help and I’m sure they’ll get it. Essendon by 49 points.
Adelaide vs Gold Coast Adelaide Oval Saturday
Afternoon
Boy oh boy didn’t The Crows dish out
another Showdown lesson to Port last week?
An evening stroll in the park for Tex
had him kick 7 to keep in touch with Charlie Curnow for the Coleman and the
team has been able to strut up and down Hindley St all week with chests puffed
out. But the same with Gold Coast who
smashed their perennial bully off the park last week too. I’ve always said, if you’re getting bullied
the best course of action is to go up to the antagonist and kick him in the
nuts (or in this case squeeze the living daylights out of them). A damaged agate serves as a permanent
reminder not to be messed with. Gold
Coast are going to need to bring that sort of fight to this match too. Well, not the EXACT same sort of fight, but
be hard and tough at the ball…the football…you know what I mean. Adelaide’s
speed can kill a team, but Gold Coasts toughness will be telling. A close one here, but Adelaide has a bit more to play for than Gold
Coast. Adelaide by 14 points.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood MCG Saturday
Twilight
It’s hard to get a read on what The Pies
dished up last week. Take nothing away
from Carlton,
but Collingwood also seemed a bit off.
Kicks were a bit wayward, and intensity looked a bit down. Certainly, some of this was to do with the
effort and intensity that Carlton
brought but some of it can be portioned to the end of a long month that
Collingwood set themselves for. This is
the troublesome part of footy tipping for us regular folks. The Pies have all but locked away one of the
top two spots and maybe have a bit of hesitancy in their legs as they try to
preserve themselves for finals and teams like Carlton, or in this week’s case
Hawthorn, can come along and pick them off just by body lining the player a
little bit. Hawthorn themselves were
blown off the park in a fast first quarter last week by the Saints but worked
their way back to being a chance late, falling at the final hurdle. This match should be pretty similar. Collingwood by 37 points.
Geelong vs Port Adelaide Kardinia Park Saturday Night
What a tantalizing match up this will
be. Geelong was reading from the wrong script
last week by losing at home. This brings
words like “cooked” and “old” into conversations about them. Add to that a couple of hamstrings to some
key players and there is real risk of them dropping this one at home too! You have to go back to 2015 to find a time
when Geelong lost two games in a row at Kardinia Park,
which incidentally was the last time Geelong
did not make the Finals. However, those
two losses were 8 weeks apart. You must
go all the way back to 2006 to find two losses in consecutive rounds at Kardinia Park.
Port Adelaide
is also starting to see the word “Cooked” in articles about them. After umpteen wins in a row, they have now
lost their past three. Also, when
looking at history you need to go back to 2007 to find a time when they won at Kardinia Park.
Anyone remember 2007? Geelong beat Port Adelaide
in the Grand Final by 119 points.
History is interesting, but it doesn’t help to pick a winner in this
game. Hawkins and Blicsavs are important
to Geelong, but
as important as Aliir and Jones are for Port.
The importance of this game is highlighted by the pub patron who went
and head-butted Jeremy Cameron this week in an effort to get him to miss the
match with concussion I suppose. My
guess is this was just Hinkley in disguise trying to get Kochies pins out of his
back. Geelong by 11 points.
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney GIANTS Stadium Saturday Night
Here we go, the 26th battle of
the bridge and one the Swans face for the first time without Buddy Franklin at
the club. Sydney have found some late season momentum
to put them in the frame for a finals spot and GWS have won their last 7 to put
them into 6th spot on the ladder.
I’ve been saying it for a while that GWS are a better side than their
ladder position was showing and now the ladder has finally caught up with
them. The trick here is to pay attention
to the details. I have gone back through
both these teams’ winning runs in minute detail and you know what it
revealed? I’ll tell you but keep this
little secret to yourself…it’s tipping gold.
Going through past matches in detail reveals absolutely nothing. There, I said it, the secret to my success is
out. But I don’t like taking blind
guesses either, so I need something to anchor my analysis on. Oh dear, that means I need to fire up the
statistical leviathan and run some simulations.
You know what that shows me? It’s
a real 50:50 match. But if I flex the
decimal places then it’s a 50.00001:49.99999 match so on that basis, with
utmost confidence, GWS by 6 points.
North Melbourne vs Melbourne Blundstone
Arena Sunday Afternoon
This is going to be a bit unfair, but North Melbourne are not going to win this one. Coming back from a loss in WA and then going
all the way down to Tasmania
they lose 3 days of preparation already.
Clarkson takes the reigns again this week. Alastair that is, not Jeremy, although I
think watching Jeremy Clarkson coach North Melbourne would be far more
entertaining. Melbourne looks like they are going through
the motions until finals start. Melbourne
by 42 points.
Saint Kilda vs Carlton Marvel
Stadium Sunday Afternoon
Carlton is on the rise. It is very
exciting for Carlton
supporters. I remember when journalists
were camping outside Princes
Park to ambush board
members and try and find out when Voss was being sacked. This almost seems like a season ago. Now they’re talking about how much damage
they are going to do in the finals…when they haven’t even qualified yet. They were solid against Collingwood and
caught Port at a good time but we’re thinking Port aren’t the team they were
pretending to be. Otherwise, their list
of wins includes 14th, 15th, 16th, and 18th
on the ladder. Importantly though, this
produces momentum and momentum can be important. It will need to be with their run home now
against 5th, 2nd, 14th, and 6th. This will be more telling of how they have
improved and will see them dancing precariously with the qualifying line. Saint Kilda similarly have a tough run home
and if they want to stay in contention for a finals spot are going to need to
stomp on teams like Carlton. I’m looking
at this match as potentially the game of the round. Both teams like to move the ball cleanly and
quickly but Carlton
launch from the centre while Saint Kilda launch from defence. On that basis I think Carlton
will win as defensively they are similar, but Carlton has a more potent attack. How will St. Kilda deal with Curnow? Carlton
by 21 points.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Perth
Stadium Sunday Twilight
Nothing is more infuriating than when your
team puts in such poor performances to rule them out of finals contention and
then play a game like Freo did against Geelong
to prove that they could play finals…if they wanted to. Frederick’s
goal of the year contender has been replayed frequently, but to put that in
context, the shallow pocket-cigar shape of the ground means that was more like
taking a shot in line with the edge of the centre square on any other
ground. Ha, this coming from a guy who
has a lifetime goal average of about 0.2 and was often named in the forward
pocket. That being said, in the country
leagues usually 2 minutes into the first quarter some chain-smoking farmer
would swap out of the centre bounces with me so he could rest for the remainder
of the match. What am I talking about?
I’ve already established my Buddy-like credentials so I should be an
authority…as you were Frederick. Brisbane
will be hurt by the loss to Gold Coast.
Their supporters wouldn’t have liked that. It’s the sort of loss that really bruises the
members. But these things really testes
one’s fortitude. Ahhh, if only Chris
Johnson was still playing for Brisbane,
I’d have material to go on with, they do have Jack Payne and, if you think
about it, Eric Hipwood. I digress, Brisbane will be
desperate to atone for the loss last week and put their finals campaign back on
track. Fremantle may be reveling a
little too much in their great win last week.
It could go the other way, but Brisbane
by 27 points.
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