Round 22 AFL Preview

 Last Week           4/9           Season Total      113/180 

Tipping officially has knobs on it.  If you picked Port Adelaide to beat Sydney last week you were guessing.  If you picked them by 100+ points, then you are certifiably insane.  The AFL say they want it this way.  There were so many games within a goal last week that you could feel really hard done by if you scored as low as…I don’t know, say, 4.  Yes, I feel hard done by.

Retirement season has begun in earnest with Dusty, Hawkins and Gaff officially pulling the rip cord on their careers.  We salute them for their contributions and wonder where in future they will pop their heads up.  Dusty likely will slink into the night the same way that Plugger did, and Hawkins and Gaff are also not likely to go the media route.  I’m predicting thigh modelling for Hawkins and runner for Gaff.

Of course, there is also a small sporting event going on in Paris at the moment where the Aussie ladies are kicking butt and taking no prisoners.  In fact, at the time of writing we have 21 gold medals issued with 18 of them being women.  When I read news articles about women “influencers” complaining about men in the Australian dating scene, it seems we are a pretty apathetic bunch and just need to pull our finger and try a little bit.  As we know, dating ability often translates directly to sporting ability.

Anyway, it’s almost the end of the season.  Many teams are still alive and vying for an ever-shrinking pool of top 8 spots.  Let’s take a look in detail at what’s going to happen and definitively determine the winner.  Or at the very least roll these percentile dice that I have (thanks to a misspent youth of dungeons and dragons).

Sydney vs Collingwood SCG        Friday Night

It’s an understatement to say there’s a lot riding on this.  Sydney copped an absolute pizzling last week at the hands of Port Adelaide.  When it was 72-0, I just assumed there was a mistake in the control room.  Perhaps there was in a way?  Collingwood had a miraculous win over the Arch Enemy in Pendlebury’s 400^th and it was made sweeter (according to their supporters) that it was by less than a goal after McGovern missed a set shot after the siren by a long margin.  Anyway, all that is for nought now as these two teams face off.  Sydney needs to arrest an alarming late season freefall and Collingwood just need to keep winning if they want to be a part of September.  Desperation is a great part of the human condition, but who will be more desperate?  The dice says 72% chance of Sydney by 30 points.

Brisbane vs GWS             Gabba   Saturday Afternoon

A lot has been talked about Brisbane and their run of 9 straight wins.  But with an average ladder position of those teams being 11, perhaps it’s hardly surprising?  This one is a bit more of a tester, but they do host GWS at home which helps.  GWS are coming off a good come from behind victory over Hawthorn in the nation’s capital.  They’ve had some time to de-ice, and I reckon they could fancy themselves in this one.  But I’m not brave enough to tip them.  Roll those dice and what do I get?  84% chance of Brisbane by 8 points.

North Melbourne vs West Coast              Bellerive             Saturday Afternoon

It was essentially this game last year that determined the destination of Harley Reid and henceforth will be forever known as the Harley Reid Cup.  The match has no bearing on anything in the ladder or anything other than some joy for supporters, hope for next season, or perhaps advertising for potential coaches.  It seems more people DON’T want the West Coast job than want it.  My thought was that Dusty retired so he could apply for the role.  It might be a good option for West Coast as his stature, his tattoos and his alleged bikie support group might just stop the West Australian media from hassling him.  Anyway…dice time.  96% chance of North Melbourne by 18 points.

Fremantle vs Geelong   Optus Oval         Saturday Twilight

Stoppage work in the last 20 seconds of a match will be the focus for Longmuir this week.  Essendon just waltzed that out last week.  That’s not to say he doesn’t need to spend any time focusing on stopping a last quarter run (Perhaps Longmuir and McCrae can get together on that one!)  Geelong just squeaked home against Adelaide and while a win is good, just pipping 15^th placed Adelaide at their own fortress would send alarm bells ringing.  It’s tough to win on the road this season, but then this season just throws any old result at you.  Better consult the dice.  63% chance of Fremantle by 21 points.

Essendon vs Gold Coast                                Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

As I mentioned, Essendon pipped Fremantle in the last seconds of the match last week, but more alarming was the first three quarters which I would normally say is the kind of display that has you losing next week.  But then they are playing Gold Coast, who are on the road.  No dice required…100% chance of Essendon by 10 points.

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide      MCG      Saturday Night

I would say that Melbourne’s season is over.  Perhaps there is some fluke of mathematics that gets them in, but it probably involves imaginary numbers, irrational numbers and some kind of Tensor theory to make it work.  Speaking of unusual mathematics, what happened with Port Adelaide last week?  I figured it was some kind of manifestation of the Monty Hall Probability Problem.  Maybe that’s a better way to deal with tipping than relying on knowledge, statistics or the truth, which all seem unreliable.  Dice are easier.  58% chance of Port Adelaide by 25 points.

Carlton vs Hawthorn      MCG      Sunday Afternoon

After a missed kick after the siren, Carlton have taken a tumble down the ladder in the last few weeks.  They need to correct this trajectory if they want to play finals this year.  Hawthorn was narrowly beaten in the ice of Canberra last week and are difficult to beat if they bring their A game and your own game is barely B+.  Both teams will be desperate with both requiring a win for their own nefarious needs.  The dice have not been kind to us on this one.  50% chance of Carlton by 1 point.

Richmond vs Saint Kilda               Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

There’s no fairytale send off for Dusty.  I’d be surprised if we even see him at the stadium on Sunday.  He’ll more likely be sitting in a pub with Swanny, tweeting harsh comments and downing a pot or two.  This is another game which holds no consequence other than giving supporters some hope or more flesh to dissect in the off season.  I’ll roll the dice because I think it will help.  77% chance of Saint Kilda by 14 points.

Adelaide vs Footscray   Adelaide Oval   Sunday Twilight

The form that Footscray has been in, it’s hard to go past them.  The last few weeks they’ve played with that ethos of “coming to chew gum and kick ass, but they’re all out of chewing gum.”  While Adelaide is having an annis horribilis, I’m inclined to think, on occasion, things just fall into place for them.  They’ll take a lot from pushing Geelong to the limit and it wouldn’t surprise me if they pulled one out here.  They might just bring the bubble gum.  Better consult the dice.  53% chance of Footscray by 6 points.