Round 23 AFL Preview

Last Week           3/9           Season Total      116/189 

Tipping doesn’t just have nobs on it, but any sense of predictability has gone way out the window.  I’ve tried rolling dice, I’ve tried using knowledge and data and none of it works.  The only approach I have left now is to sneak up on it.  And if that doesn’t work, I’m going to have to resort to hindsight, so you won’t get these tips until next week.

Teams are dipping in and out of contention and on the one hand you’d think the AFL would be loving it.  Two games to go and it seems that all 18 teams are still jostling for a finals berth.  Well, almost.  On the other hand, the AFL would secretly be tearing their hair out.  At one point, about halfway through the season, the top of the ladder was Sydney, Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood which in the first couple of weeks of finals would have netted the AFL CEO enough revenue to buy a small block of land in Sydney.  Now it’s looking like none of those teams will play finals and grounds that can only hold 30K – 50K will host finals.  The CEO would barely be able to afford an outhouse on that kind of income.  If the AFL wants to make any money out of this season, they’ll need to start paying some of those MCG free kicks that McRae was talking about.  Or charge the public hundreds of dollars to attend a final…

McRaes’ comments caused a stir after he revealed that a decision against the Pies would have been paid for them if the game was at their home ground.  It caused more of a stir than it needed to as he was just telling the truth.  This is why there are home ground advantages.  Collingwood call it their 19^th Man and like it or not, crowds influence umpires and ground familiarity helps home sides.  What was not truth was Horse firing back with the quote, “Collingwood has the biggest home ground advantage in the AFL.”  He's just buying into the media depiction of the us against them narrative for Victorian and Interstate teams.  It’s just ignorance to think that. Any old website can quickly give you the actual stats to see who benefits most from their home ground.  Look, here’s a table of Win/Loss for each team at their home ground in the last 10 years:

Team	Games	W	L	D	W%
Geelong	86	69	17	0	80%
Sydney	108	71	36	1	66%
Port Adelaide	134	84	50	0	63%
GWS	112	70	41	1	63%
Richmond	139	85	51	3	61%
Western Bulldogs	125	76	49	0	61%
West Coast	133	80	53	0	60%
Fremantle	130	75	54	1	58%
Adelaide	132	75	56	1	57%
Brisbane	125	71	54	0	57%
Collingwood	150	83	64	3	55%
Hawthorn	105	56	47	2	53%
Melbourne	129	66	62	1	51%
St Kilda	128	62	64	2	48%
Essendon	162	77	83	2	48%
Gold Coast	101	43	56	2	43%
Carlton	167	65	100	2	39%
North Melbourne	113	43	70	0	38%

So, you can see that Geelong has the biggest home ground advantage with its oddly narrow and half cut off wing of a ground and then it’s actually Sydney.  The problem Melbourne teams have is they share their home ground with multiple others, so they don’t always get as much of an advantage.  In fact, aside from Richmond (due to their previous long-term success), the registered MCG tenants of Collingwood, Hawthorn and Melbourne have very mediocre records at their home ground.  Essendon and Carlton share their tenancy between the MCG and Marvel which means even more shared home ground which dilutes their win percentage even further.  The interstate teams all have a much better home ground advantage.  But here’s the interesting twist.  Finals, particularly the grand final, are generally played at the MCG so the whole truth is that interstate teams have more of an advantage in the home and away season which makes it more likely for an interstate team to make it to the finals, but once they are there, the advantage lies more with any Melbourne team that made it to the finals (assuming the final in question is played in Melbourne), but it’s harder for them to get there.  Phew!  I think press conferences are too short for this kind of presentation and more attuned to the kinds of quips that get McRae and Longmire into trouble.

But enough of interesting Footy quibbles, The Olympics wrapped up with only a few competitors that went in the Seine getting sick so that’s basically a success.  Rachel Raygun did some breaking and broke the internet.  Everyone, intrigued at first wondering what this “Breaking” thing was is now much wiser for having watched it and collectively agree it doesn’t belong in the Olympics.  I’m waiting for Tiddlywinks or Pooh Sticks to be included.  I’m a frikkin’ champion at that kind of thing!

Two rounds to go, there’s action aplenty and if you’re anything like me, you’ve thrown away an unassailable lead in the last couple of weeks and are now hoping to Bradbury your way into winning the tipping.

Essendon vs Sydney       Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

Let’s continue the criticism, shall we.  Last Friday the umpiring was awful, but McRae can’t just say he was hard done by.  Sydney also copped some lousy decisions, albeit a bit earlier in the match.  Those umpires need to give themselves an uppercut.  Sydney was outstanding in the last quarter and showed what modern footy is all about.  Surge.  In recent years we have seen teams decide that losing a game by 1 point or by 40 points is no difference so when the chips are down, it becomes all-out attack.  If you get it right, you send your opponent into panic mode and defending becomes easier anyway, but it is high risk, high reward footy and crowds just eat it up.  Whether its Blakey cutting through a line with his mullet flowing behind him like an Olympic gymnast’s ribbon, or Heeney getting out of a tackle like a water polo player getting their togs out of their crack, this high-octane stuff is what is causing all us tipsters the issues.

For Essendon it was a different struggle with a real arm wrestle in the last half with Gold Coast coming ‘Over the Top’ (that’s an arm wrestling term) after the siren.  Dyson Heppel has joined the retirement ranks and made his announcement this week.  I think he is more of an assistant coach kinda guy.

So, who’s going to win this one?  As I said, I have tried many things this season to make sense of tipping and I’m going to resort to sneaking up on it.  This means I have to come up with a ser…Sydney by 25 points.  Whoah, where did that come from?

Gold Coast vs Melbourne            Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon

It was a great win last week by Gold Coast who finally got a win on the road.  Is this the start of something new?  Last gasp efforts after the siren are not the kind of thing that Dimma would want to see.  The AFL, on the other hand, seeing a win after the siren by their favourite child is just what they want.  Melbourne also had a tight finish.  It was another game that never really blew out and required no Lazarus effort, but Port did get them from behind in the last quarter.  Since then, it has been a week to forget for Melbourne with Neals-Bullen wanting out and rumours swirling that Petracca also wants out.  I guess when you split your spleen and the club says, get back out there, you may want to re-evaluate your partnership.  With all the unsettling inner turmoil at Melbourne it’s hard to see th…Gold Coast by 17 points.  Whoah, I wasn’t expecting that!

GWS vs Fremantle          Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

By the time GWS had beaten Brisbane last week, compared to all the other games, the 18-point margin was an absolute blowout.  GWS have found form at the right part of the season, winning their last 6 matches.  Have they got the balance right?  Fremantle took a misstep letting a significantly older team beat them on the fast deck of Perth Stadium.  As with the craziness of the season this puts them from cruising in second place to perilously close to missing the finals altogether.  Traditionally, the Showgrounds haven’t been a happy hunting ground for Fremantle with thumping’s coming from two of their three visits there.  But, Serong has been a star in the midfield this year.  Will he struggle against the hardened bodies of GWS?  Fremantle also has a few other niggles and injuries to contend with. All signs are pointing to GWS in this one but the key thing that we must consider is the fri…GWS by 14 points.  Whoah, did you see that?

Collingwood vs Brisbane              MCG      Saturday Twilight

Is it a case of enough said when it comes to Collingwood v Sydney?  Did McRae and Longmire say all that needed to be said?  Probably, although we can chalk up another win to the umpires this season which now means they are a lock for a home final.  I see that Sidebottom has signed on to go around again.  I’m not sure about that decision.  In a game that is getting faster and faster, he runs the risk of looking like an old man (if he doesn’t already).  But then, the game can be so fast that we sometimes experience time dilation which is good for those old blokes.  Brisbane had a loss last week, which, while I didn’t tip them, did say a few things in my preview that could have made some of you tip GWS.  You can thank me later.  This is the Grand Final rematch in that it is being played in the same spot between the same two teams.  For Brisbane is it a case that revenge is more important and that just facilitates the win or is it that they want to win because it is important for their season, and it just so happens that revenge is a byproduct?  For Collingwood, a loss will finally, categorically, rule them out of contention for the year.  No math can resurrect it from there, unless my math is wrong, which often it is.  So, all that is left here is to fina…Collingwood by 7 points.  Whoah, what was that?

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide           Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

A showdown late in the season.  Port poised to solidify a home final and Adelaide playing for shits and giggles.  Nothing would produce more giggles from the Crows fans than a win over the cross-town rival and it would no doubt produce the shits from the Port fans.  As stupid as it sounds, the season has been that weird that Port can still NOT make the finals from here.  They’ve been playing well…superb if you look at the Sydney game.  They’ve won 6 of their last 7 but against teams whose credentials now come into question.  Adelaide on the other hand have been pretty serviceable in recent weeks albeit losing more than winning (and let’s not count the match against Hawthorn – which is a biased and stupid thing to do).  I sniff an upset here, but it will tak…Adelaide by 11 points.  Whoah, it just came out of nowhere!

Saint Kilda vs Geelong  Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

The Cats went over to the West and showed little regard for the top 4 hopefuls in Fremantle, but then cats, in general, show little regard for anything really.  St. Kilda also had a win, but this was only over Richmond who currently are the pedestal to the column.  I actually like St Kilda in this one who only marginally lost to Geelong at Kardinia Park early in the season and the fast deck of Docklands will be to their liking.  Geelong will have sore legs after running around on the controversial Perth Stadium surface and another hard ground here and by half time some of their elder statesmen might be popping calves.  Ross Lyon is a wily old bast…Saint Kilda by 18 points.  Whoah, I was just there when all of a sudden, Pow!

Footscray vs North Melbourne  Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

Was it an unexpected loss last week or not?  I’m talking about Footscray of course.  With 2 minutes to go, North Melbourne certainly weren’t expecting it, but for Footscray, even with a poor record at Adelaide Oval, they’d been travelling well enough to get the chocolates.  I think North will trouble Footscray in this one with signs of good ball movement beginning in the midfield of North Melbourne.  But as we know, today’s game is built on moments, and it is Footscray who have the poise in those clutch times to be abl…Footscray by 22 points.  Whoah, I was like, doing it and then, like, it just, like, went pop! Like.

Hawthorn vs Richmond                                MCG      Sunday Afternoon

Those wascally Hawks got me again.  They just keep winning.  Their pressure is elite, and it will hold them in good stead.  I vow never to tip against them again in these final rounds (he says confidently when they have the two bottom teams to play).  It’s time Richmond turned the team over to the surgeons.  But then, can I make a case for the Tig…Hawthorn by 37 points.  Whoah, ok, I kinda expected that.

West Coast vs Carlton    Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

After a quick investigation I see that West Coast are favourites in this match!  These are truly uncharted waters.  A last gasp effort from Captain Fantastic (Allen) saw them fly back from Tassie with the 4 points and functioning toilets.  And everyone knows a well-relieved man plays better football, just ask Mark Williams or Alex Fasolo.  Speaking of pissing yourself, this is where Carlton fans are at right now.  The team has only 1 fit player with the rest all being sidelined for various ailments.  Luckily the fit player is Patrick Cripps who pretty much carries the team each week anyway, so they are still in with a chance this week.  But Crippa prefers to kick it to a forward line which will sadly be absent this week which doesn’t bode well.  It really is desperation time for Car…West Coast by 14 points.  Whoah, that really snuck up on me!

On a personal note, I’m hopeful to actually watch some footy this weekend as I lie on the couch with my balls in a sling.  But I’m sure there is much work to do.  Wish me luck!