Round 24 AFL Preview

 Last Week           5/9           Season Total      121/198

A formal inquiry has been lodged.  There will be a full inquest with findings handed down in a Royal Commission with heavy input from the AFL and Sporting ombudsman.  An injustice has been dealt through deceit and trickery that will not stand.  Collusion is afoot.  All West Coast had to do was, at home, beat a Carlton team that consisted of pretty much only 1 of their top 22 players, but in losing, and badly, West Coast have all but assured that their most hated enemy, Fremantle likely will not make it and, at the same time, Carlton’s most hated enemy (well, everyone’s most hated enemy) will likely not make it.  This is the kind of skullduggery one expects in other sports and is on par with controversies like The Hand of God, Nancy Kerrigan and Lance Armstrong.  A dark day in sports indeed.  We’ll see what action, if any, the AFL takes on these matters.  Not to mention that it buggered up my tipping!  Which was the real tragedy here.

One person who won’t have to worry about any of that nonsense is Dan Houston.  I was expecting a NASAesque headline, “Houston, we have a problem.”  There probably was one in the papers somewhere as they are not very original when thinking up these things.  If any, I would have expected The West Australian, but I think they were still sinking the moon boot into Simmo.

This is it for 10 teams.  The last game they’ll play this year when there is nothing to look forward to other than Mad Monday.  Still a lot of machinations that can happen inside the top eight and some remote chances of teams sneaking in.  How will it all play out?  Let’s over-analyze it now and then get it wrong, shall we…?

Melbourne vs Collingwood        MCG      Friday Night

Maths is a hell of a thing.  I’m going to try not to give Collingwood supporters hope, like most newspapers have done this week.  They do this because if Collingwood supporters think the season is alive then they click on links and buy newspapers, and everyone makes money.  The truth of the matter is that Collingwood need to make up such a gap in percentage to displace either Carlton, Hawthorn or Footscray that some unprecedented things in the history of time and space need to happen.  Is it a zero chance?  No.  There is a chance and Collingwood supporters should fully expect to be playing finals…(Mwah, ha, ha).

Here's the rub.  The actual amount depends on opponent scores, but all will become much clearer after this game.  As we are into predictions though, to displace Carlton the combined margin of Collingwood beating Melbourne AND Saint Kilda beating Carlton needs to be in the range of 195 – 205 points.  To displace Hawthorn, that combined margin needs to be about 220 – 230 points and to displace Footscray, the combined margin needs to be about 450 to 470 points.  Collingwood are hoping that, not only they crush the spirits of Melbourne after their Petracca love-in during the week, but that Saint Kilda sneak Plugger back onto the field, it becomes Opposite Day in Tasmania and North Melbourne become The Harlem Globetrotters and Hawthorn the Washington Generals or that GWS accidently break the laws of Physics.  It should be noted that the last time Collingwood won by 100+ points Microsoft released Windows 8, Curiosity rover landed on Mars and GWS just entered the AFL (hence the thrashing).

The alternative to this is that Collingwood supporters storm the AFL capitol building decreeing that the results were faked, and that the premiership defense was stolen…but we know how that turns out already.  The important thing on the line is to feed Naicos to see if they can get him over the line on Brownlow night.  Collingwood by 15 points.

Geelong vs West Coast Kardinia Park     Saturday Afternoon

This game has no consequence for West Coast.  They can’t move from their ladder position.  Is pride a thing for them after last week?  Or is this another opportunity for them to screw over Fremantle?  Most important is probably for West Coast to make it look like an attractive option to be the coach of.  It seems like more people are announcing they are dropping out of the coaching race than have actually submitted an application.  Which reminds me, I’d like to officially announce I’m withdrawing from consideration of the West Coast head coach position.  Mainly because I don’t like The West Australian Newspaper…they scare me. Geelong on the other hand can finish anywhere from 2^nd to 8^th so a bit might be riding on this one for them.  If they lose, they might have to play an away game at the MCG, but if they win, they could find themselves playing a home game at the MCG!  The risk for Geelong is that they don’t take any risks.  Geelong by 23 points.

Richmond vs Gold Coast               MCG      Saturday Afternoon

A dead rubber.  Gold Coast would like to give their supporters hope for the following season while Richmond potentially farewell some retirements and trade options.  Will Bolton make his way to West Coast or Fremantle?  Richmond by 8 points.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne York Park             Saturday Twilight

Another game where the result is pretty irrelevant to North Melbourne other than a bit of pride, but Hawthorn can finish anywhere from 4^th to 10^th.  A double chance is a nice reward if they can pull it off, but this Tasmanian Tussle will unlikely produce that.  Maybe an MCG home final finishing 5^th or 6^th should be their goal.  Hawthorn by 47 points.

Brisbane vs Essendon    Gabba   Saturday Night

The Lions blew it last week.  Up by 3 goals with about 5 minutes to go and then The Pies did that surge football thing and managed to snatch it.  Essendon also blew it.  In two ways.  One by not even getting close to winning, but also denying a club hero a home goodbye because they thought they might win without him.  Essendon officially can’t make it to finals this year.  Well, to be clear of all doubt, it is actually possible, but this would require no less than three clubs currently in the 8 to be found bringing the game into disrepute and being stripped of premiership points.  Never say never.  Brisbane can finish anywhere from 4^th to 9^th and while a home final is likely, will it be in week 1 or 2?  Is this a time for them to try to run all of the ladder predictor machinations and use advanced game theory to work out the most optimal path to victory?  Maybe not.  Just let it play out.  Farewell Dyson.  Brisbane by 34 points.

Sydney vs Adelaide        SCG        Saturday Night

It is possible for Sydney to finish as low as 3^rd, but anywhere other than 1^st is pretty unlikely.  Now is the time for them to strike because the AFL change the rules to make things happen.  Did you know no team has gone back to back since the introduction of the 6-6-6 rule?  Adelaide will be a much worse side without Rankine who might not even be able to enjoy himself on Mad Monday as he was knocked into the following Tuesday.  Sydney by 21 points.

Footscray vs GWS            Mars Stadium    Sunday Afternoon

Sunday is where it is at.  I remember the AFL invented the floating final round fixture so they could avoid Finals-bound teams playing on the last Sunday.  This week all the Sunday games are important to the makeup of the Final 8.  Go figure.  This is the crackerjack match of the round with GWS safely in the top 4 and Footscray all but safely in bottom 4 of the top 8.  A win is the difference between a home final or not…most likely anyway.  Other results might influence that.  This is a match up mostly full of spite and a hot contest which is an enjoyable watch.  I’m still on the GWS train.  GWS by 12 points.

Carlton vs Saint Kilda     Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

Simple equation for Carlton.  Win and they’re in.  It was a stirring victory last week, which is still to be ratified after the inquest, but it was true back-to-the-wall stuff.  Or was it?  Sometimes we have to remind ourselves that they were playing the third worst team in the league.  I’d like to point out my perfect prediction that Geelong would fade away in the second half of the match and the Saints would overrun them.  Hey, one perfect prediction out of 198 isn’t bad, right?  Throw enough darts… Saints would fancy themselves here and a lot might ride on who comes back for Carlton, if any?  Because I like the drama, and we want to give Fremantle a sniff, Saint Kilda by 19 points.

Fremantle vs Port Adelaide        Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

The tension in the final match of the regular season hinges entirely on the other Sunday matches.  If Carlton loses, then Fremantle have a chance of making the 8, which means they’ll probably lose.  If Carlton win, Fremantle have no chance and so they will probably win.  For Port Adelaide, if GWS win, Port Adelaide will need to win to guarantee two home finals.  If Footscray wins, the match is unimportant to Port Adelaide as their ladder position won’t change.  It’s set up for a fascinating finale to the regular season.  No Dan Houston is an important factor in this match.  But a midfield battle of the triumvirate of terror in Butters, Horne-Francis and Rozee against the triumvirate of terror in Serong, Jackson and Young will fill your bellies with delight.  It’s a game worth sitting down and seeing how it unfolds.  Despite their second on the ladder position, I haven’t been a fan of Port Adelaide all year.  I think they are fragile, and the pace and pressure of Fremantle will be too much.  If it’s a dead rubber in Ports eyes, Freo might roll them and sneak into the 8.  Fremantle by 1 point.