Finals Week 2 AFL Preview - Semi-Finals

 Last Week           2/4           Season Total      129/211

It was a first week of finals footy that really illustrated why a pre-finals bye is just not compatible with the competition.  Three really ordinary games which were over mostly before quarter time.  At least there was one cracker in there!  For a season that was so close all year, it was a real let down.  Even if some unexpected teams got up.  Trade chatter continues for the supporters of the other 12 teams highlighted by a Mac Andrew signing which came with a price that allows plenty of Gold Coast Night Club money.  Actually $12M isn’t that much these days.  After buying a couple of rounds at the pub you’d be skint.  Stringer has been strung out.  Petracca said, “nah, actually we all love each other here at Melbourne” and nefarious people at clubs do nefarious deals to secure nefarious things (I’m talking about list managers).

 A couple of tantalizing games this week.  Let’s dive in and make some random selections…ah, er, I mean, statistically sound decisions underpinned by hard data.

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn         Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

I just can’t do it anymore.  I reckon I’ve been tipping Hawthorn to lose every week since they started winning.  I spoke last week about the pressure they’d bring and that it wouldn’t be enough given the pressure that Footscray would bring.  Then Footscray turn up like a vacuum (an absence of pressure) and just roll over for Hawthorn.  Are they just lucky?  Meanwhile, Port had a stinker against Geelong.  The old dogs gave them a fair mauling and it has been a week of wound licking for them.  I’m not sure if the crowd started booing Hinkley, but that is usually the kind of inspiration required to get them going again.  Butters is on one leg and that’s a real bummer for a cut-throat final.  Revenge might be on the mind of Hawthorn after that time when they let Port kick two goals in 5 seconds to win the match earlier this year.  All I know is that a straight sets exit for Port Adelaide will cause much consternation amongst the home crowd.  If attending, I wouldn’t park your car anywhere close to where fans may spill out and if they do lose, avoid flying to South Australia for a couple of weeks.  Ginnivan has already proclaimed they’ll be playing Sydney and as he behaves a bit like Kwisatz Haderach, one cannot go against his word.  Hawthorn by 9 points.

GWS vs Brisbane             Showgrounds                    Saturday Night

It was a free hit for Brisbane last week, getting to play a team that probably only marginally had the right to be there and also limped in like a lame horse.  But to Brisbane’s credit they were the perfect shotgun to remedy that issue.  GWS had the game all wrapped up before Sydney started that characteristic, “we have nothing to lose” surge football which is all or nothing and high risk.  It left GWS ruing some earlier misses that really could have put the game to bed.  Luckily, no matter how much further Brisbane go, they won’t be playing at The Gabba again which means their goals will generally be met with silence rather than Frozen ballads and John Denver ditty’s.  I said it last week and I’ll say it again, GWS is my pick, and I’ll stick with that.  Next time they meet Sydney it will be at the MCG away from the second biggest Home Ground advantage in the league and in front of a crowd of almost no Sydney supporters (or GWS supporters for that matter [and some may argue no footy supporters at all – it’s all corporates]).  GWS are a tough team to beat and as well tuned as Brisbane are, I’ don’t think they are at that level this year.  GWS by 16 points.