Finals Week 3 AFL Preview - Preliminary Finals

Last Week           0/2          Season Total      129/213

Last week was a disaster.  In more ways than one.  I didn’t get a tip right which was a real bummer, but not only that I now have very little interest in any of the teams going any further and have to summon all my strength to analyse these games and provide insightful reasons to tip a team or not.  That being said, coming off a zero from the semifinals doesn’t really prove to anyone that the things I’m doing here are profound or insightful.  But then getting 1 correct, or even 2 correct wouldn’t have proven that either so we’re back into that realm of making random selections, or at least making sense of randomness by trying to find patterns in the data which is all we can really hope for.

GWS lost in dramatic circumstances after coughing up a 44-point lead and this a week after coughing up a 28-point lead, and, if you want to take it further, they coughed up a 17-point lead last year to lose the Prelim.  That’s a lot of coughing, but they say losing can be like a disease and it can be contagious.  As a doctor, which I’m not, I’d prescribe a lot of bedrest and two sessions of soul searching a day until symptoms abate.  But then soul searching is not often a useful pastime and is usually done in error and most people don’t like what they find so perhaps just a good stiff gin and tonic.  In all seriousness, I think this will leave a scar.  The worst part of it all is that the team I had backed in from before the season start is now out and to quote Dusty Springfield, “I just don’t know what to do with myself.”  Or am I quoting Burt Bacharach, isn’t he a philosopher?  Or is that Carol Bayer Sager, her name has an “S” in it.  I’m rambling now, you know you’re rambling when you start quoting Monty Python.

The biggest story of the week came out of Ken Hinkley’s mouth.  Old Kochie has him wound up like a cheap alarm clock and any time his springs will go “sproing!”  I think most entertaining was how the narrative shifted as the week wore on.  At first it was how bad and disrespectful and childish Hinkley was.  This was led mostly by Hodge and Lewis who have a commentary style about as objective as Eddie MacGuire.  It was “Hinkley’s a grown man” and Ginnivan was turned into some kind of 11-year-old kid who didn’t know any better and couldn’t stand up for himself.  Once the AFL handed down their ridiculous sanction, the narrative suddenly shifted to “that little twerp got what he deserved” and “if they can’t take it, they shouldn’t dish it out” which they have been doing all season long.  It was entertaining to say the least and reminded me of watching interactions between attendees at my sons daycare.  One day we’ll grow up and maybe that’ll be the day the human race takes the next important evolutionary step.  A man can dream, can’t he?

More trade news is hotting up for the 14 clubs not playing anymore but that is largely overshadowed by American political debates.  I enjoy golf, and it comes with a lot of hazards, but they are next level in the US with guys with automatic weapons in the bushes.  To be honest, I’d just take the stroke penalty!  My understanding is it was just a Springfield immigrant trying to bag his next feed.

Anyway, I remember the joy I used to have looking forward to Preliminary Final weekend, but to be honest, I’m going to have to find some gems in the statistics to regain the rage in what has felt like a very, very long season.

Sydney vs Port Adelaide              SCG        Friday Night

The first of the matches this weekend is the big dance between Sydney and Port.  It would seem that Port has the measure of Sydney in recent times with the last 8 matches going in Port’s favour.  This includes 5 at Adelaide Oval and 3 at the SCG.  The most recent of course being that 112-point shellacking back when our attention was on the Olympics.  Prior to that it was a more subtle 2-point win at the SCG.  This is probably the most likely comparison to draw as it was the most recent night match at the SCG.  The recent history stat hides the true SCG tale though (which we already know is the second biggest home ground advantage in the league) where they have played 17 times and Sydney have won 11 of those by an average margin of 39 points.  Only 3 of their 17 SCG matches have been at night with Sydney winning two of those.  And it’s forecast to be nice, almost perfect weather conditions for footy whereas last time about 4mm of rain had fallen that day which made things a bit greasy.  I think all signs point to Sydney.  It was a top, energetic win last weekend by Port Adelaide and I think they played their Grand Final then.  Who knows, maybe Ginnivan will be there anyway, and we’ll all be apologising to him for simply tweeting the truth.  Sydney by 32 points.

Geelong vs Brisbane      MCG      Saturday Night

The Cats get to play a home game at the MCG.  On the one hand this is good news for Brisbane given the advantage that Geelong has at Kardinia, but the disadvantage Brisbane has at the MCG is profound.  Geelong’s old brigade will be well rested but having to leave a few of those old-timers out as they can’t get back into the team of more youthful runners at the moment is not a bad thing.  I touched on Brisbane’s woeful MCG record which is just 2 wins in the last 18 outings or, if you want to go back further, it’s 4 wins in the last 30 outings.  But better here than at Kardinia where they haven’t won since their last Premiership.  They also haven’t beaten Geelong in a final since 2004 which was when they fell short of their 4-peat.  I didn’t really want to get into specific match ups until the Grand Final but there are some tantalizing ones in this one.  Both teams have very mobile forwards in Danniher and Cameron and very competent midfields with a good mix of bulls, elite runners and skillful users.  I think this game gets decided across the half-back lines where teams will support their defence against very able forwards and then carry the ball through midfield lines.  Brisbane’s inaccuracy has hurt them this year and they will need to sort that out if they are to win this one.  Brisbane has kicked 333 goals and 336 behinds this year while Geelong have kicked 341 goals 256 behinds.  Geelong prefers to get the ball in closer to goal which goes a long way to kicking a better score.  The key that gets me though is Geelong’s soft run into the finals and even then, they caught Port on a bad night.  Brisbane is match hardened and seem to be peaking at the right time.  But did they spend all their petrol tickets in a fighting comeback last week?  Can they do it twice in a row on the road?  All of a sudden, I have piqued my interest in this one.  Brisbane by 6 points.