Round 8 Preview

 

Last Week           7/9           Season Total      44/62

Firstly, let's address Anecdotal Bias. This occurs when individuals use stories, poor memory, or the propagation of someone else's story or opinion as a basis for their statements rather than examining data and arriving at purely statistical conclusions. Each year during the MCG Anzac Day match, commentators often say, "It doesn’t matter where they are on the ladder." However, data suggests otherwise. If you rely on commentators' opinions for your selections, you may be misled.

Let’s analyze this more closely. There have been 30 meetings between Collingwood and Essendon on Anzac Day (excluding 2020 due to COVID). Out of these, there have been 2 draws, and the team ranked lower on the ladder won the game only 9 times. This equates to 30% of the time, or conversely, the higher-ranked team wins 63% of the time.

The belief may originate from the first match, which was a draw, where one team was 14th on the ladder and the other was 3rd. Historically, the match is played early in the season after the teams have had only 4 matches prior (but ranging anywhere from 3 to 6), allowing for significant variations in the ladder positions. Below is a breakdown of instances when the lower-ranked team has won or the match has ended in a draw, categorized by increments of 3 positions of separation on the ladder:

Difference in Ladder Positions	Times Lower Team Has Won or Drawn
1 to 3	5
4 to 6	2
7 to 9	3
10 to 12	1
13 to 15	0
16 to 18*	0

*prior to 2011 it was only a 16-team competition.

Extending our analysis further, the ladder positions are primarily determined by the number of premiership points, or victories, and the team's percentage. Below is an overview of instances where the team positioned lower on the ladder has secured a win or the match resulted in a draw, categorized by the difference in the number of wins each team had leading up to the Anzac Day Match: 

Difference in Number of Wins	Times Lower Team Has Won or Drawn
0	4
1	5
2	1
3	1
4 or more	0

It is evident that the position of the teams on the ladder significantly impacts the likelihood of their success. Statistics indicate that a team higher on the ladder has a 63% chance of winning, whereas a team lower on the ladder only stands a chance if the difference is negligible or at most one win less.

Furthermore, historical data shows that the three-win difference between the teams resulted in a draw. Therefore, only once has the team lower on the ladder won when the number of wins separating them exceeded one, reflecting merely a 3% chance of winning. These are not favourable odds.

Phew!  I hope that clears that up.  Now if you’re having a punt, you know what to do.  Maybe Two-Up is a better option.

I’m also glad that this weekend we can get our voting done.  I’m sick of the ads and especially sick of the signs on the roadside.  I understand putting A sign up on the roadside but the same sign 11 times in 200 metres is a bit excessive.  However, I do enjoy the variations in vandalization across those 11 signs.  I was shocked to see in a TV interview that our local member didn’t actually have horns as many of the pictures I’ve seen tell me otherwise.

Lots to talk about in footy circles this week.  Let’s get into it.

Essendon vs North Melbourne  Marvel Stadium               Thursday Night

The Bombers rallied in the Anzac Day match but were out-gunned and out-classed with a few late goals blowing out the margin.  North Melbourne fought hard and besides a short period where Port kicked 4 goals in quick succession, they were better than Port for the most part.  Plus, they managed to get Horne-Francis fired up.  He looks like an angry young man at the best of times so to see him when the red mist descends is great.

I think that North is a chance in this match.  They are pretty good on the Marvel surface and Essendon have their struggles with injury.  I’ll leave it with Essendon this time, but reserve the right to change my tip after I see the result…is that allowed?  Essendon by 11 points.

Saint Kilda vs Fremantle              Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

Ross Lyon went nuclear on some of his younger players (and the rest of them after the game).  The media were shocked and aghast at this and have turned it into a ‘bigger than it should be’ story because the youth generation don’t like to be yelled at and coddling and using the term ‘put our arms around him’ is the way to get things done these days.  Truth is, maybe Ross knows what motivates best.  Sometimes it’s through hugging it out and sometimes it is yelling.  Freo can expect a strong response this week.  The Dockers themselves put on a top-class show, and I’m not just talking about the Anzac celebrations.  They pressured and got into free space in a scary display.  As every Dockers supporter knows though, let’s see them back it up now.  History tells us that Freo is a 50/50 chance at Docklands.  Saint Kilda by 2 points.  Longmuir to yell at his players.

Footscray vs Port Adelaide          Mars Stadium    Saturday Afternoon

The Doggies have been a surprise packet this year.  Winning without their chief ball movers.  Now their ball movers are back, and they love playing at Mars…formerly Eureka Stadium.  I’ve been reading a book about the potential for colonization of Mars and the difficulties that we would encounter trying to do it.  Mostly we need some incentive, and I reckon if we sold the idea as a good place to send Port supporters then we’ll be able to solve all the technological issues straight away!  Port got the job done against North but weren’t that convincing.  I think maybe the danger of a Hinkley early sacking has passed, but they’re not going to beat Footscray on Mars.  But hopefully Horne-Francis fires up again. 

It should be a good match, but don’t expect to see any good come out of Mars.  I mean, the chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one…but still they come.  Footscray by 22 points.

Adelaide vs Carlton        Adelaide Oval   Saturday Afternoon

The Blues are back baby!  Still with questions over their head because they’d only beaten 17^th and 18^th on the ladder, they came out and gave Geelong a lesson who are sitting in the top 8.  It was costly though with suspensions and injuries coming with it.  There was also much conjecture over free kicks with the final tally being 20 – 11 in favour of the Blues.  Some social media reports I saw had it 87 – 0 in the last quarter alone, but maybe I need to stay off the Geelong socials.  But nevertheless, they got the job done and now come up against Adelaide who will have a point to prove after a miserable night out in Perth.  They might hope that The Fog returns.  They’d like to see him steaming out of the forward 50 (groan!)  Adelaide by 17 points.

Collingwood vs Geelong              MCG      Saturday Night

The Pies have now extended their winning run to 10 and have another chance to prove their premiership credentials against another contender.  They get a full 7-day break into this game so it should be all hands on deck, but maybe see a few oldies not make the trip to Perth the following week off a shorter break.  Can the old heads of Collingwood out-think the wise old Cats?  Certainly, Jeremy Cameron hasn’t been playing well this year but if anyone is going to play him back into form it’s Collingwood.  They are his bunny team with one of his highest average returns against Collingwood (just under 4 goals a game).  I’ve seen him kick them from impossible spots…even not inside the field of play!  I think Geelong will be stinging from a poor outing last week and Collingwood’s inability to lock down those big mobile forwards will give them the edge…but only slightly.  Geelong by 5 points.

West Coast vs Melbourne           Perth Stadium   Saturday Night

Oh My!  What could happen in this game?  Is Melbourne back to powerhouse performances or are they just tricking us because we forget that they’ve only beaten Fremantle and Richmond?  If West Coast put their back into it, they could get this win.  This is a big chance for them.  I want to pick West Coast and I think they will win, but am I just going on Anecdotal Bias?  Melbourne by 12 points.

Sydney vs GWS                                SCG        Sunday Afternoon

What happened to Sydney last week?  I was listening to it in the car, and they were up by a few goals and seemingly in control when I stepped out.  I got back a few hours later only to find they lost by 7 goals!  They just stopped!  A puzzle to solve indeed.  Another conundrum that needs to be solved is GWS.  Flag favourites at season start they now are just clinging onto a spot in the top 8.  We know they’ve got the cattle but at the moment they seem like that stubborn kind of cattle that won’t budge…even when you put the feed out.  Surely, they are better than a listless Sydney though and I see them chalking up a win in the Battle of the Bridge.  GWS by 21 points.

Hawthorn vs Richmond                                MCG      Sunday Afternoon

The Hawks got their much-needed win but were less than convincing against West Coast.  Sure, it was a 50-point win, but West Coast are, sad to say, a whipping boy at the moment and Hawthorn should have demolished them by 100.  Perhaps if they had’ve kicked straight.  Richmond showed a bit of pluckiness to get close to Melbourne in the Anzac Eve match and should be able to get Balta out on the field for this one before racing home for his 6pm curfew.  He’d better hope that traffic is light on Kings Way.  In a great cost-cutter for Vic Police they didn’t need to fit him with a GPS tracker.  They just pipe the Champion Data feed during the day and the paparazzi will follow him home when the time comes.  Full, traceable documentation.  Hawthorn by 34 points.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast                 Gabba   Sunday Twilight

The last match of the round sees Brisbane square off against Gold Coast in the good old Q Clash.  Or, if we pick the halfway point, it could be the Battle of Beenleigh.  These teams are sitting 2^nd and 3^rd on the ladder, but technically only on percentage with one loss each, the same as the top team.  But they’ve played a different number of games and it’s all very confusing until the AFL can squeeze in that lost match somewhere.  But who cares as we can say for sure that it doesn’t matter where these teams are on the ladder when it comes to the Q Clash! (Don’t get me started).  Brisbane you’d think should get the chocolates here being a more battle-hardened team but there’s much to like about Gold Coast this year and it wouldn’t surprise me if they asserted some intra-state dominance.  It’s a scalp they’d dearly like in order to confirm their newfound status of contender.  But away from Carrara and in the flanks of the Gabba I’m going for…Brisbane by 13 points.