Round 18 Preview

Last Week           8/9           Season Total      102/144

I’m back.  Well, sort of.  I’m still not terribly mobile and diligently doing my rehab to restore my ankle to its former glory.  But then, its former glory was as a relatively benign appendage underneath a repeatedly torn and largely useless calf.  Anyway, the surgery went well although I have discovered that clandestine government agencies should dispense with all the water boarding and electrifying genitals crap and just give their interrogation targets ankle surgery.  Not only was I in more pain than I would wish for, but the moon boot is possibly the most frustrating apparatus to contend with. 

I see that my time travelling was pretty darn effective when it came to footy tipping.  Maybe I’ve found a way to defeat the problem with time travel.  When you go and look at the future, you change it.  It’s a whole Schrodinger’s Cat / Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle thing.  That would probably have been good information to give you BEFORE I sent you tipping suggestions from the future, but then if you’re relying on me for cogent tipping advice then you’ve probably got deeper issues.  In any event, if I have solved that issue then I’d better get myself to the patent office.

Now that I’m back, I have to rely on historical facts to provide supporting reasoning for getting my tips terribly wrong.  Here goes… 

Carlton vs Brisbane         Marvel Stadium               Thursday Night

The media and coaches are all tuned into the same line and are calling July ‘Big Boy’ month and there is no reprieve here for a floundering Carlton as they face a foe who is one of the biggest of big boys.  The Blues got absolutely spiflicated by an all-powerful Pies outfit while Brisbane flexed their Big Boy muscles and showed Port that they are merely children sitting at the Big Boys table.  A lot has been written about Carlton’s woes of late and the pressure that is on Voss and the board.  This match will only serve to intensify that as they get the kind of bruising and battering that happens when boys wrestle with men.  It might not be all that well attended for a Carlton home game given most of the memberships have found their way into microwaves and scarves into pot bellies around the greater Melbourne area.  I also think the best thing Tom De Koning can do now is fake an injury to protect his brand and prospective contract.  Brisbane by 41 points.

Gold Coast vs Collingwood         Carrara Friday Night

As mentioned, the Pies worked over the Blues last week while Gold Coast dispatched Essendon in a last quarter trouncing.  This is the one and only matchup between these teams in the regular season which sees Collingwood travel up to Carrara for the 4th time in a row as the AFL continue to try and push the sport into the Northern states.  It’s also almost the 34th anniversary of the time Peter Daicos kicked 13 goals at Carrara.  Can the combined Daicii boys beat their old man?  I doubt it.  For Collingwood there are selection dilemmas aplenty with everyone contributing so well and a host of first 22 players still on the sidelines waiting to come back.  It’s a good problem to have, I guess.  But a bad problem to have is playing Gold Coast on their home patch where they have been rather dominant for a couple of years.  Is Gold Coast really a big boy?  I think Collingwood is but certainly there is motivation for Gold Coast as a win here would almost guarantee their place in the finals for the first time in their history.  Collingwood has theoretically already qualified and might not have as much to play for as players now go into preservation mode to ensure they’re still fit enough to play finals.  That’s the risk for the Pies.  Collingwood by 11 points.

Footscray vs Adelaide   Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

The all-conquering Adelaide forwards conquered another defensive unit last week, but this week they come up against a Footscray side that knows how to go on the attack.  This game will be a great watch with both teams being a lot more focused on the centre to forward area than the back.  Will either team care if they get scored against or is it just a case “score more than your opponent?”  I really don’t know where I am sitting on this one but will probably lean towards Footscray just because it’s at Marvel.  Adelaide isn’t so crash hot there.  They’ve had two wins in the last two visits, but that was against Carlton and Essendon by two points and two points respectively.  That’s a lot of two’s!  We all know how much Footscray loves it there.  Interestingly they usually play this out in Ballarat, so this is the first meeting here in 9 years.  Footscray by 17 points.

GWS vs Geelong              Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

The orange tsunami is coming for us all.  They have found their mojo again, albeit with the help of an easy kill against West Coast.  Geelong has easy kills galore in the back half of the season and this is perhaps their only test on the run home.  Last week it was easily pushing aside Richmond but building a seawall that can hold back a tsunami is a whole other task.  Especially in the tsunami’s backyard.  And if I’m going to keep the simile going, the tide is also turning against the Cats at The Showgrounds.  The four matches they’ve played there have gone Win, Win, Draw and Loss although they haven’t set foot on the Showgrounds since 2020.  Geelong is a well drilled outfit and GWS has beaten up a few minnows lately, but I think, now it’s big boy month, we’ll see just how much they’ve grown.  GWS by 15 points.

Richmond vs Essendon MCG      Saturday Night

Now that we are pretty much familiar with who will play finals and who will not, this game becomes a bit of a non-event for anyone who is not a diehard fan of either club.  Essendon will have a bit of confidence from their performance for the first three quarters against Gold Coast Last week, but Richmond will have to look further back in time to find confidence.  If you’re not interested in this one, there’s always The Evian LPGA, The PGA/European Tour Scottish Open or the Tour de France or Wimbledon.  Or you can do some ankle rehab.  Essendon by 23 points.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn                                Perth Stadium   Saturday Night

After a mid-season lull, Hawthorn bounced back into contention, but then contention runs all the way down to ninth on the ladder, which is where Fremantle are, trying to break into a spot in the finals.  This is a tricky match.  Fremantle looked to be humming along but was benefitting from a brace of home games against lowly opposition.  This match offers a real test against a Bonafide contender who has not beaten Fremantle at Perth Stadium since 2018.  If there’s one thing I’ve learnt from watching Fremantle it’s that the opposite of what you’d think will happen.  Fremantle by 6 points.

Melbourne vs North Melbourne              MCG      Sunday Afternoon

The Demons were certainly serviceable in Adelaide and North Melbourne had a spirited first half to celebrate their sesquicentennial but fell away in the end.  It’s still hard to tip North Melbourne even though they have shown flashes of brilliance this year.  Melbourne by 13 points.

Saint Kilda vs Sydney     Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

It’s clear that Saint Kilda aren’t going to play in the finals and if the commentators are to be listened to, Sydney are shoe-ins to play in the finals.  Apparently if they win seven of the last seven then they’ll be in the finals.  I think the commentators get a bit excited sometimes.  They forget that this also means that one of the many teams above them has to lose 3 of the last seven or, because of percentage, Sydney really has to win 8 of the last 7 or the teams above them have to lose 4 of the last seven.  Anyway, the calculations continue, and this will make the commentators talk it up more. Sydney by 31 points.

Port Adelaide vs West Coast      Adelaide Oval   Sunday Twilight

It was a dark night for Port Adelaide as Brisbane put their season to the sword.  Well, not really, according to some, they can still make the finals if they win all 7 of their last 7.  West Coast have been playing for other reasons this season anyway and haven’t been in the calculations for finals since 2 minutes into the first quarter of Round 1.  Because of that…Port Adelaide by 36 points.

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