2025 Finals Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

 Finals Week       0/2          Finals Total         0/6

Another disappointing week of football finals and another disappointing result from my tipping.  With only three matches left, the best I can do is get 33% and I think the best option for me now is to see if I can keep this going and go through the whole finals without tipping a winner.  Of course, I only have myself to blame by outing myself when I said that the games are too predictable.  But to be honest, I have been experimenting with this final series by tipping purely on feeling and not considering the stats at all, just to understand if my system really holds up.  Had I followed my system (which was outlined a couple of weeks ago) I would have 4 out of 6. 

All of the action is off the field.  And I’m not just talking about the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo where incidentally the champion pole vaulter broke the world record for the 14^th time.  He’s amazing and I suspect he was born that way…pole vaulted right out of the womb!  What I’m really talking about is what it’s like to be an AFL captain these days.  Loyalty is waaay out the window.  First of all, Oscar Allen wants to go, then Zach Merret and now Jy Simpkin.  And given the way Essendon have reacted, I’d suspect the clubs are none too impressed.  Essendon have taken the scorched earth approach to negotiations in the hope that they can make Zach look like such a bastard that no-one will touch him.  But I think we can all agree that the real problem here is Sam Mitchell.  We are waiting to find out just when it was that Jy had a coffee with him.  He’s very unrepentant about it too.  I guess he’s just Espresso himself and he doesn’t understand the Brew Haha he is causing.  Let’s not put Mitchell in Perkatory and remember that sometimes, Drip Happens, I mean Latte Da!  Maybe having a coffee with Mitchell is just Grounds for Celebration.  Clubs have started to use their soft cap to develop a device similar to a shark deterrent.  Basically, it’s an electro-magnetic device worn around the ankle that emits a frequency that makes Sam Mitchell feel uncomfortable when he comes near.  The idea is he loses interest and goes to the café on his own.

We have two great Preliminary Finals this weekend to look forward to.  For the record, my system says to tip Hawthorn and Collingwood but let’s see if I can convince myself otherwise.

Geelong vs Hawthorn   MCG      Friday Night

The Cats were straight through to a preliminary final after doing a job on Brisbane while Hawthorn only just scraped into the 8 and brushed aside the ladder conquerors, Adelaide to book their place in this all-important final.  Saying this final is important is a bit of an understatement really.  I mean, you lose, and you wouldn’t help but feel that it’s a wasted season and a win gives you the chance at ultimate glory.

These two teams have a great finals rivalry that began with the last grand final in the VFL era (1989) and have seen them meet on seven more occasions through the 90’s and 2000’s.  Now I know they played in 1963 but there’s only so far that you can go back and draw relevance.  The important statistic we can draw from it is that Hawthorn won 6 of those 8 finals but the average margin has only been 15 points.  Half of the finals matches have been decided by a goal or less.

How do we break this match down between the Hollywood Hawks and the Cotton On Cash Kings?  Will the extra money in the pockets of the Cotton On Super Baggy Jorts be worth it? (Look up that item of clothing, it is a real thing).  Or will Hok-ball or Unsociable behaviour be the big winner?  Will the week off be beneficial or a hindrance?  Will the Hawthorn brat pack spend too much time rehearsing goal celebrations and not enough time training running patterns and 2-minute drills?  Has Geelong provided Dangerfield with enough free coffee that he doesn’t feel the need to go have one with anyone?

Geelong has winners all over the ground and a forward line that can dominate the Hawks.  But Hawthorn has heart and is led up front by that wily old campaigner (Norman) Gunstan.  Heart might not be enough.  What you need is hard, uncompromising football that has no room for showboating.  Geelong by 20 points.

Collingwood vs Brisbane              MCG      Saturday Twilight

If the Friday night match is a fizzer, then maybe this one will light up the MCG.  Collingwood took a week off after the Qualifying final win which gave a chance for some of the aging stars to not only prepare but also get back from injury.  Brisbane took the long way around after a loss to Geelong and then sweeping aside Gold Coast in what was a low-pressure final.  Both sides are teeming with finals experience, and this match sees the two oldest and the two most experienced (as in games played) clubs going head-to-head.

A lot gets said about the age of Collingwood, but what if we look a bit deeper at that. 

	Average Age	Average Games
Collingwood	28.7	160.3
Brisbane	26.6	140.9
Difference	2.1	19.3

Is 2 years a big difference?  There’s only about a year’s games experience between them.  Are Collingwood skewed because of Pendlebury and Sidebottom?  What if we take away the oldest two and the youngest two from each list?

	Average Age	Average Games
Collingwood	28.6	147.9
Brisbane	26.5	141.2
Difference	2.1	6.7

The age difference doesn’t really change but they get a lot closer on games.  Note, these data points were taken after the Qualifying Final.

Anyway, maybe age and experience are a falsehood to hang our hat on as the older team also benefits from an extra week off. 

I really don’t know who’s going to win this one.  Brisbane is a younger side with about the same amount of experience, but we don’t think that’ll be important.  Both understand each other’s game styles well.  Brisbane’s forwards got a hold of Collingwood last time, but this was because the Collingwood backline was missing 2 of its 3 key posts.  Collingwood’s forwards can be hit and miss and the Brisbane defence is well equipped.  In the middle, Collingwood has great users in Daicos, de Goey, Sidebottom while being led by Pendlebury.  Equally Brisbane boasts the likes of McCluggage, Rayner, some Ashcroft’s and are managed by Zorko.  Even the rucks look pretty evenly matched.

I think what we’ll see is a tight match early and then the game will open up with both teams taking it on and taking risks in more of a shootout.  Who will win, is anyone guess?  I can’t even tip a draw.  Brisbane by 1 point.

The Brownlow

Thought I’d add a little note about the Brownlow which will be held before my last preview of the year.  One thing I know for sure about the Brownlow is that the umpires don’t know enough to be making these kinds of decisions.  But if I was a betting man, which I kinda sorta am.  The top of the polls will include these people:
N Daicos
M Rowell
N Anderson
B Smith
C Serong
M Bontempelli 

Maybe in that order, maybe not.  The rest of the teams either haven’t won enough matches or have too many other players in the team that will steal votes.

Good luck if you’re teams in a Prelim.  Otherwise, good luck for other reasons.