Round 21 AFL Preview

 Last Week           5/9           Season Total      109/171 

There is so much to talk about.  The Aussies are killing it in Paris.  Not only do we have a few in the pool as we normally do, but we’ve bagged one in a canoe and also one on a bike.  The canoe was impressive as Fox just snuck into the final, floated down first and then had to wait for the entire rest of the field to go through.  Knife edge stuff.  I was most impressed by the Time Trial win by Grace Brown.  The road was wet and super slippery with most riders taking a fall and losing some bark and the rest being too cautious.  Brown blitzed the field.

The Olympics is a great time, where every 4 years I become an avid watcher of sports I just don’t get to watch any other time.  I watched the Korean women’s archery team win the gold medal for the 10^th time in a row.  That’s 40 years of being Olympic champions!  I’ve been watching Volleyball, BMX and skateboarding where it appears you’re past your prime once puberty kicks in!!  We’ve been treated to the power that is Simone Biles.  I personally can’t wait until the athletics program starts.

But the efforts on the pitch/pool/road/watercourse are secondary to the real story, which is Mark “Tubby” Taylor commentating the diving.  It’s an interesting take on diving as we get a better understanding of pike positions and the importance of knowing where your off stump is before your first dive.

The other big story is The Seine.  It’s the centerpiece of Paris’ Olympics and they spent almost 2 x Harley Reid’s next contract to clean it up.  Of course, torrential downpours have undone all that work as rivers of sidewalk poodle poo were washed into the river and the levels of E coli have risen to 8 times what is considered safe.  I for one think it adds something to the triathlon and the swim marathon events as the gold medal could be awarded, not solely based on who crossed the finish line first, but who was still alive to receive the medal.

Anyway, transport yourself 15,000km from that action and we have more important sport going on.

Footscray vs Melbourne               Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

The Western Bulldogs are officially calling themselves Footscray this week as they roll things back to sometime in the 90’s.  I’d love it if this was played on the quagmire that was Western Oval, but it will be played under the roof on a (ahem) well maintained surface at Marvel.  The Doggies have been a surprise packet the last few weeks.  It seems like only a few weeks ago that Bevo was being marched out the doors by the media.  Now he’s a hero after bagging some really tough scalps and they look likely to fill the vacancy in the top 8 that Essendon have left.  But Melbourne won’t want to be denied as they look to rescue their season where, like Collingwood, nothing short of a win is required.  It’s hard to tip against Footscray when you look at their recent form and the speedy Marvel deck is catnip to these mutts.  Footscray by 21 points.

West Coast vs Gold Coast            Perth Stadium   Friday Night

It’s a rare Friday Night double-header and I guess anything goes when people’s attention is on Paris (or on Trump and what comes out of his mouth).  Many West Coast players will be a bit more fleet of foot this week as they’re not weighed down by the fat paychecks in their wallets which the AFL relieved them of after a spiteful Western Derby.  Not-to-mention a few suspensions to come from it too.  Some big outs for West Coast which will work in favour of Gold Coast who rarely win away from home, but after losing at home last week, maybe they’ve flipped the laws of physics?  Gold Coast by 11 points.

North Melbourne vs Richmond                 Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

Both these teams have their moments in otherwise forgettable years.  Richmond’s was that win against ladder leaders Sydney, but this feat has been dulled a little recently.  North Melbourne has been in reasonably fine form of late although wins have still alluded them.  Dusty, Nankervis and Graham provide some much-needed reinforcements for the Tigers, but they do have to overcome the squadron of number 1 picks that North has at their disposal.  It’s a tough one to pick and this game will likely determine the spoon for 2024.  Do North Melbourne really need another number 1 pick?  Maybe they think so and this could be the plan.  After last year’s Harley Reid debacle, they may have learned their lesson.  Or maybe I’m just making up crazy theories so if they do win, I can say, “Told You!”  Richmond by 14 points.

Geelong vs Adelaide     Kardinia Park     Saturday Twilight

The Crows really disappointed me last weekend.  They’ve got a terrible record at Kardinia Park.  ‘Nuff said.  Geelong by 22 points.

Collingwood vs Carlton                 MCG      Saturday Night

An attempt to derail the party this week when racism reared its ugly head, but putting that aside, this week has all been about the celebration of Scott Pendlebury’s 400^th match.  It’s a lot of games.  Reading his stats was quite depressing as it puts my own age in perspective.  Because we consider Pendlebury old but then you realise you were in high school when he was born, had been in the workforce for 10 years when he played his first game and won his first premiership when I was feeling the effects of the GFC.  One interesting stat I pulled was that while he has played the most games in the crop of current players, has the most possessions of any player in history, but is not in the top 10 when it comes to Clangers.  Would you believe Lance Franklin has the most, closely followed by Dangerfield and then Dusty.  He has close to a 1:1 ratio of kicks to handballs as opposed to Kevin Bartlett whose ratio is 10:1.  Anyway, all of these stats are nice, and they’ll be brought up and talked about at length during the match and there will be much celebration of the man, while the team around him gets smashed by Carlton and their season effectively ended.  Carlton by 31 points.

Port Adelaide vs Sydney              Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

The Swans are getting their injuries at just the wrong time of the year.  Early ripe, early rot is the common saying.  But they’ve got to break their losing streak at some point.  They’d prefer to do it this week against Port than have to wait for the following week against Collingwood.  Port can be fragile at times and although they have a few recent wins under their belt they still have not looked convincing.  No changes for Port Adelaide this week brings a bit of stability that Sydney would kill for at the moment.  This is a tough assignment for Sydney who haven’t beaten Port Adelaide for 7 years.  This is the average length of a marriage in Australia!  But curiously, 7 years is also roughly the duration that human cells replace themselves, so no one is anything like they were when Sydney last beat Port.  Even more curious is that Uranus changes the sign it’s travelling in every 7 years so Astrologers think something life altering will happen.  But most importantly, 7 years is the period of time that Mediums and Spiritualists claim is the cycle of “What goes around comes around” so if Mediums are to be believed, Sydney is due.  Sydney by 8 points.

GWS vs Hawthorn           Manuka Oval     Sunday Afternoon

Hawthorn just keeps on keeping on.  Can they make it?  They’ve got two tough games followed by two easy games, so the balance says they’ll probably just miss out.  Nobody wants them in there anyway.  The first tough assignment is GWS this week in Canberra.  It should be noted that there will be frost.  Not Hawthorn full back Sam Frost.  He’ll be there but I’m talking about that icy coldness that makes men’s bits retract into their body and has Englishmen walking around in singlets.  Hawthorn has only been to Canberra once.  So long as they can find the ground in the maze of roads set out in true garden city style then we should get a good contest.  Their one and only match up here was a resounding victory to Hawthorn, but that was so long ago only Callan Ward and Luke Bruest can remember (actually many others played that day – but it doesn’t sound as good).  For some reason I just don’t have faith in Hawthorn and as mentioned previously, have been my bogey tipping team this year.  Reluctantly…GWS by 18 points.

Essendon vs Fremantle MCG      Sunday Afternoon

Fyfe failed to beat the rap so will sit this one out.  Essendon have fallen so far down the ladder that they have spent the better portion of this week filling out an incident report.  They’re still in with a chance, but with a couple of tough games in the run home it’s not a lay down misère.  Meanwhile, Fremantle have climbed so high on the ladder that they’ve run out of places to attach the lanyard.  My concern with this one is that Fremantle have a nasty habit of getting your hopes up and then dropping a game they should win.  They also have a nasty habit of losing the week after playing a Western Derby.  If this game was at Docklands, I’d put all the money on Essendon, but these teams are meeting at the MCG for the first time since 1999!  If you want to feel old, that was the year Napster was created.  I remember 1999 fondly for that time I spent 3 hours on Panasonics customer support line trying to work out if my microwave was still going to work after Y2K!  I digress.  Fremantle don’t fail me now!  Fremantle by 12 points.

Saint Kilda vs Brisbane  Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight

Last but, by no means least, those plucky young Sainters come up against a Brisbane juggernaut.  Saint Kilda have won their last 3 at Docklands but tend to struggle against the Lions.  I want to make a case for Saint Kilda, but I can’t.  Brisbane by 17 points.