Round 11 Preview

Last Week           5/9           Season Total      63/89

Last week was one of those weeks of reflection.  I don’t just mean that there were a few upsets, and I didn’t score as well as I might have hoped.  It was a week when we were reminded that there are certainly more important things than football.  We lost both Robert Walls and Adam Selwood last week under similar, but different circumstances, both who had far reaching connections within many AFL clubs and their loss was both duly acknowledged and deeply felt by all of the AFL community.  Vale both Robert and Adam.

As mentioned, it was a rough week for tipping last week with a number of upsets so let’s see if we can pull a couple back this week.

Geelong vs Footscray    Kardinia Park     Thursday Night

With all the smack that Bailey Smith has been talking about his old club, this match holds some interest, and it would be good to watch over the top of a cold one.  Geelong had an emphatic win over Port Adelaide on Port’s home deck but suffered some injuries that may cause some issues in the future.  Footscray also dished out a walloping and it can be said really have their shi… together.  They’ve won their last two matches down at Kardinia Park, so the venue holds no fears and they’re playing such good footy it’s hard to go against them.  Footscray by 5 points.

Essendon vs Richmond MCG      Friday Night

The Dons had a shocker last week and couldn’t land a tackle if it was attached to a fishing rod.  Meanwhile Richmond was well in the fight to the end with North, falling just short when it mattered.  This will be a good match and although Essendon are ahead of Richmond in the rebuild, shouldn’t expect to walk away with this one.  It’s the annual Dreamtime match as part of Sir Doug Nicholls Round which is always a great TV spectacle.  If the teams don’t inspire you, you can watch a movie once bouncedown is done.  Essendon by 11 points.

Carlton vs GWS                Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

They just can’t take a trick, can they?  Carlton fell short and need a win here to keep the season alive.  GWS are also in peril with a bunch of bad losses in their form line culminating last week with an embarrassing display against a red hot Freo.  It could be said that GWS also needs a win to keep the season alive.  This makes the match a hum-dinger and it’s perhaps sad it’s stuck under the roof in the dreary early Saturday timeslot when most people’s attention is still on their kids sports matches.  I’ll probably be mowing the lawn.  GWS by 21 points.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane   MCG      Saturday Afternoon

The small forwards at Hawthorn need to stop trying to deflect tackles with their necks.  It’s not only really annoying to watch, but really dangerous too.  As I age (ungracefully I might add) I’m starting to get issues related to nerve entrapment as they depart my neck.  It’s really unpleasant and if I could talk to Watson or Ginnivan maybe I could give them a good insight into the difficulties of day-to-day life.  Not that I ducked into tackles a lot when I played.  Mostly I was ducking swinging round arms which were commonplace in the country leagues.  Didn’t always get it right either and concussions were a common outcome…which might also explain a lot of things.  While they made it look close last week, they were well beaten up in the heat of Darwin and might suffer a bit on the return journey too.  Brisbane too would be bitterly disappointed with a 4th quarter fade out giving them their second loss at home.  Both in humid and stable conditions last week but they’ll descend upon a swirly breezy cold MCG on Saturday for this one.  The MCG is a ground where Hawthorn can play well, and Brisbane were a bit shabby there earlier this year getting a scrappy win over flailing Richmond.  But Brisbane’s winning streak at the ground goes back to the finals series last year and I think the ground holds no fears for them anymore and I expect this team, which is supposed to be dynastic according to experts, will bounce back.  Brisbane by 25 points.

North Melbourne vs Collingwood           Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

It wasn’t the most convincing of wins by North Melbourne last week, but they got there in the end.  Collingwood had yet another close encounter with Adelaide.  We might remember this game last year when North Melbourne were up by about 9 goals before Collingwood stormed home to take the win by a single point.  A couple of dodgy umpire calls at the end certainly helped but this year Collingwood are in better shape than they were last year, and so is North Melbourne.  If this game was at the MCG, I’d tip Collingwood without hesitation but North at Docklands is a slightly more difficult proposition.  Even through their good years, Collingwood have had patchy performances there and maybe it’s because they don’t treat the match there with respect.  And it looks that way again as Collingwood looks to rest a few of their weary old brigade.  Sidebottom will take a rest, DeGoey is still out.  Shultz is still woozy, Houston has a problem and Moore might be less.  On the other side there is dynamic youth looking to prove themselves against the leagues best.  They took half the points from Brisbane two weeks ago and taking a big scalp would be a KPI on Clarkson’s whiteboard.  Collingwood struggle with mobile forwards like Larkey and Xerri will prove a big challenge for Cameron.  I’m backing Collingwood’s system but don’t be surprised if North gets up.  Collingwood by 12 points.

Fremantle vs Port Adelaide        Perth Stadium   Saturday Night

The Dockers surprised a lot of people last week with an emphatic victory over GWS.  Not only was it a skilled display, but there was an element of ruthless efficiency in it too.  Their clearance work is second to none at the moment, but will face a test against the likes of Rozee, Butters, Horne-Francis, et al as they try to prove to the world that they’re not that shithouse and that succession plans really do work.  Luke Jackson was immense in the ruck, and I expect him to be so for the rest of the season while his manager explores some lucrative contracts back in Melbourne.  Jackson won’t be the only problem for Port Adelaide with the greater issue being that they actually are shithouse and that succession plans don’t work.  Port Adelaide by 32 points.

Adelaide vs West Coast                                Adelaide Oval   Sunday Afternoon

It was another near miss for Adelaide over Collingwood, but they still showed the power of their three-pronged forward line as the Pies could only put a safety cork on two of the prongs.  Then what can I say about West Coast?  They bagged their first win of the season in some emotional circumstances for a couple of reasons.  It would have been tough, and when news like that hits the playing group, you’re not quite sure which way it will sit with them.  But they can be proud of their effort, and I’ll admit, I couldn’t tip them last week but the evidence from the previous few games showed a linear improvement and I thought they were a chance.  Only their faithful would have tipped them and if you did, consider yourself out of the closet now.  Meanwhile, some further bad news for West Coast is Jeremy McGovern is struggling to overcome a concussion and has been referred to a Concussion Review Board.  Outcomes from this include the possibility of a medical retirement from the game so we wish him all the best whichever way it falls.  But without him the task of crippling Walker, dehumidifying the Fogg and un-tongue twisting Thilthorp will be near impossible, especially on the lush lawn of Adelaide Oval.  Adelaide by 42 points.

Melbourne vs Sydney   MCG      Sunday Afternoon

It was a stirring victory for Melbourne last week after venturing deep behind enemy lines and blowing up Brisbane’s game plan.  Sydney bagged a much-needed win against Carlton which now brings them within striking distance of the top 8.  The Swans are still down on some much needed midfield man-power and this could be the deciding factor as Melbourne’s midfield seems to have found some form fed by Max Gawn.  It’s a tough match to pick with Melbourne’s recent successes containing a few of the cellar dwelling teams but a few of the better teams in the competition too.  And Sydney having a similar form line.  Flip a coin, roll the dice, consult a medium on this one.  Sydney by 1 point.

Saint Kilda vs Gold Coast             Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight

The task last week was less predictable for the Saints given the news that West Coast was dealing with.  It would be a loss they are disappointed with, nonetheless.  Gold Coast continued their spotless record at Marrara after dispatching Hawthorn, holding off a spirited fight back.  One of Gold Coast’s two losses this season was at Docklands, and we were able to establish that Hardwick doesn’t like it there as he has verbally explained on a previous occasion.  The Saints like it there though, and I think they can get up for this one.  Saint Kilda by 19 points.

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