Last Week 5/9 Season
Total 63/89
Last week was one of those weeks of
reflection. I don’t just mean that there
were a few upsets, and I didn’t score as well as I might have hoped. It was a week when we were reminded that
there are certainly more important things than football. We lost both Robert Walls and Adam Selwood
last week under similar, but different circumstances, both who had far reaching
connections within many AFL clubs and their loss was both duly acknowledged and
deeply felt by all of the AFL community.
Vale both Robert and Adam.
As mentioned, it was a rough week for
tipping last week with a number of upsets so let’s see if we can pull a couple
back this week.
Geelong vs Footscray Kardinia Park Thursday Night
With all the smack that Bailey Smith has
been talking about his old club, this match holds some interest, and it would
be good to watch over the top of a cold one.
Geelong
had an emphatic win over Port Adelaide on Port’s home deck but suffered some
injuries that may cause some issues in the future. Footscray also dished out a walloping and it
can be said really have their shi… together.
They’ve won their last two matches down at Kardinia Park,
so the venue holds no fears and they’re playing such good footy it’s hard to go
against them. Footscray by 5
points.
Essendon vs Richmond MCG Friday Night
The Dons had a shocker last week and
couldn’t land a tackle if it was attached to a fishing rod. Meanwhile Richmond was well in the fight to the end
with North, falling just short when it mattered. This will be a good match and although
Essendon are ahead of Richmond
in the rebuild, shouldn’t expect to walk away with this one. It’s the annual Dreamtime match as part of
Sir Doug Nicholls Round which is always a great TV spectacle. If the teams don’t inspire you, you can watch
a movie once bouncedown is done. Essendon
by 11 points.
Carlton vs
GWS Marvel Stadium Saturday Afternoon
They just can’t take a trick, can
they? Carlton fell short and need a win here to
keep the season alive. GWS are also in
peril with a bunch of bad losses in their form line culminating last week with
an embarrassing display against a red hot Freo.
It could be said that GWS also needs a win to keep the season
alive. This makes the match a hum-dinger
and it’s perhaps sad it’s stuck under the roof in the dreary early Saturday
timeslot when most people’s attention is still on their kids sports
matches. I’ll probably be mowing the
lawn. GWS by 21 points.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane MCG Saturday Afternoon
The small forwards at Hawthorn need to stop
trying to deflect tackles with their necks.
It’s not only really annoying to watch, but really dangerous too. As I age (ungracefully I might add) I’m
starting to get issues related to nerve entrapment as they depart my neck. It’s really unpleasant and if I could talk to
Watson or Ginnivan maybe I could give them a good insight into the difficulties
of day-to-day life. Not that I ducked
into tackles a lot when I played. Mostly
I was ducking swinging round arms which were commonplace in the country
leagues. Didn’t always get it right
either and concussions were a common outcome…which might also explain a lot of
things. While they made it look close
last week, they were well beaten up in the heat of Darwin and might suffer a bit on the return
journey too. Brisbane too would be bitterly disappointed
with a 4th quarter fade out giving them their second loss at
home. Both in humid and stable
conditions last week but they’ll descend upon a swirly breezy cold MCG on
Saturday for this one. The MCG is a
ground where Hawthorn can play well, and Brisbane
were a bit shabby there earlier this year getting a scrappy win over flailing Richmond. But Brisbane’s
winning streak at the ground goes back to the finals series last year and I
think the ground holds no fears for them anymore and I expect this team, which
is supposed to be dynastic according to experts, will bounce back. Brisbane
by 25 points.
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Marvel
Stadium Saturday Night
It wasn’t the most convincing of wins by North Melbourne last week, but they got there in the
end. Collingwood had yet another close
encounter with Adelaide. We might remember this game last year when North Melbourne were up by about 9 goals before
Collingwood stormed home to take the win by a single point. A couple of dodgy umpire calls at the end
certainly helped but this year Collingwood are in better shape than they were
last year, and so is North Melbourne. If
this game was at the MCG, I’d tip Collingwood without hesitation but North at
Docklands is a slightly more difficult proposition. Even through their good years, Collingwood
have had patchy performances there and maybe it’s because they don’t treat the
match there with respect. And it looks
that way again as Collingwood looks to rest a few of their weary old
brigade. Sidebottom will take a rest,
DeGoey is still out. Shultz is still
woozy, Houston has a problem and Moore might be less. On the other side there is dynamic youth
looking to prove themselves against the leagues best. They took half the points from Brisbane two weeks ago
and taking a big scalp would be a KPI on Clarkson’s whiteboard. Collingwood struggle with mobile forwards
like Larkey and Xerri will prove a big challenge for Cameron. I’m backing Collingwood’s system but don’t be
surprised if North gets up. Collingwood
by 12 points.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Perth
Stadium Saturday Night
The Dockers surprised a lot of people last
week with an emphatic victory over GWS.
Not only was it a skilled display, but there was an element of ruthless
efficiency in it too. Their clearance
work is second to none at the moment, but will face a test against the likes of
Rozee, Butters, Horne-Francis, et al as they try to prove to the world that
they’re not that shithouse and that succession plans really do work. Luke Jackson was immense in the ruck, and I
expect him to be so for the rest of the season while his manager explores some
lucrative contracts back in Melbourne. Jackson
won’t be the only problem for Port Adelaide with the greater issue being that
they actually are shithouse and that succession plans don’t work. Port Adelaide by 32 points.
Adelaide vs West Coast Adelaide Oval Sunday Afternoon
It was another near miss for Adelaide over
Collingwood, but they still showed the power of their three-pronged forward
line as the Pies could only put a safety cork on two of the prongs. Then what can I say about West Coast? They bagged their first win of the season in
some emotional circumstances for a couple of reasons. It would have been tough, and when news like
that hits the playing group, you’re not quite sure which way it will sit with
them. But they can be proud of their
effort, and I’ll admit, I couldn’t tip them last week but the evidence from the
previous few games showed a linear improvement and I thought they were a
chance. Only their faithful would have
tipped them and if you did, consider yourself out of the closet now. Meanwhile, some further bad news for West
Coast is Jeremy McGovern is struggling to overcome a concussion and has been
referred to a Concussion Review Board.
Outcomes from this include the possibility of a medical retirement from
the game so we wish him all the best whichever way it falls. But without him the task of crippling Walker, dehumidifying the
Fogg and un-tongue twisting Thilthorp will be near impossible, especially on
the lush lawn of Adelaide Oval. Adelaide
by 42 points.
Melbourne vs Sydney MCG Sunday
Afternoon
It was a stirring victory for Melbourne last week after venturing deep behind enemy
lines and blowing up Brisbane’s
game plan. Sydney
bagged a much-needed win against Carlton
which now brings them within striking distance of the top 8. The Swans are still down on some much needed
midfield man-power and this could be the deciding factor as Melbourne’s midfield seems to have found some
form fed by Max Gawn. It’s a tough match
to pick with Melbourne’s
recent successes containing a few of the cellar dwelling teams but a few of the
better teams in the competition too. And
Sydney having a
similar form line. Flip a coin, roll the
dice, consult a medium on this one. Sydney
by 1 point.
Saint Kilda vs Gold Coast Marvel Stadium Sunday Twilight
The task last week was less predictable for
the Saints given the news that West Coast was dealing with. It would be a loss they are disappointed
with, nonetheless. Gold Coast continued
their spotless record at Marrara after dispatching Hawthorn, holding off a
spirited fight back. One of Gold Coast’s
two losses this season was at Docklands, and we were able to establish that
Hardwick doesn’t like it there as he has verbally explained on a previous
occasion. The Saints like it there
though, and I think they can get up for this one. Saint Kilda by 19 points.
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