2025 Finals Week 1 AFL Preview - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Finals Week       0/0          Finals Total                         0/0

What a great weekend it was.  The weather where I am was amazing.  After 25 grueling weeks of footy, I was able to get myself re-acquainted with a bunch of people I like to call Family.  I also ripped through my back garden and removed all of the winter detritus and weeds.  Some of them were so big, I had to call in an arborist and go through a council planning permission process in order to remove them.  I resurrected the pool, and the kids even went for a swim in it, before shivering, turning blue and getting a cold and a few days off school this week.  I still have the front garden to go, but that is a much bigger task with excavations, lawn replacement and (if the wife approves) the installation of my very own, most likely maintenance intense, putting green.  I will hopefully include a bonsai style hedge and miniature picket fence, so it looks like a really swanky golf club that only permits members based on some archaic and highly discriminatory rules.

There was lots to talk about off the field this week, making an otherwise dead weekend seem jam-packed with footy articles to keep oneself amused.  Exit interviews and player contract talks being the highest priorities.  It was as if the finals had already been run as any talk of those matches were consigned to little portions of columns in the papers.  I think a lot of us expected Melbourne to be reeling but the big news is out of Carlton with Son of Sos wanting out, Curnow saying he wants to explore and De Koning confirming what we all knew.  You’d be pretty disappointed if you were a Carlton Supporter I’d expect.  A team that should have been in contention this year seemed to internally implode.

The other big news off the field was Mitch Brown being the first AFL player to come out as Bi-Sexual.  That’s fair enough, I think as a society we are at the point where we can say, great, ok, duly noted.  It’s hard to write anything about it and not sound condescending or worse sounding like you don’t support him.  I think it was great, courageous and wish him all the best in his future endeavors.  He did make it a bit harder on some teams that he called out for not supporting him immediately and so any statement they made after that would seem like they were acquiescing.  But here we are, the moment has now passed, and Mitch blazes a trail.  Hopefully making it a bit easier for players in the future to feel comfortable walking that path too.

Four cracking games this weekend which will hopefully restore my faith in the game.  This is like Season 2.0 so let’s look closely, or more likely barely look at all, at the finer details of these match ups.

Adelaide vs Collingwood             Adelaide Oval   Thursday Night

Here we go, in a tantalizing match up that is dripping with different angles that can be probed.  It’s been a while since Adelaide have been in the finals with the last one being the disastrous 2017 Grand Final containing the ridiculous Power Stance and subsequent camp that could be one of the causes of their long lasting absence.  But this match will be in the heartland of Adelaide Fanatics, who, despite the evidence, blame Collingwood for Rankine’s absence (I think they also blame them for every war, every cataclysmic event, every fly swatted and every fart squeezed from a puckered bum since humans first walked upright).  There will be bad blood, there will be booing, there will be people who take it too far and get ejected from the stadium, there will be risk to life and limb for travelling supporters.  It will be an intimidating environment for Collingwood players.  And that’s just how they like it.  More seasoned in the pressure cooker of finals, they will be comfortable with this and be looking to silence the crowd early.  But can they really do it?  They like this moment, where they can get away from the hustle and bustle of Melbourne life and if past encounters are anything to go by, they usually win…albeit by the barest of margins.  In fact, the average margin over the last 6 meets has been just 4 points.  And in the last game, statistically they should have won, if not for some gritty determination on Adelaide’s behalf, which will be required once again.  Both teams come in quite healthy although a few notable absences from each’s top 22.  Rankine and Rachele top Adelaide’s list of outs, while for the Pies they’ll need to do it without Howe and Hill (although don’t be surprised if Hill pulls on the boots).

The big points in this one are that Collingwood will need to plug the gap that Howe created which is tough when the space is amply filled with Walker, Thilthorp and Fogarty.  While Pendlebury provides a bit of management in the middle, Dawson (fresh from being robbed of All Australian captaincy) provides pivotal strike power going centre-forward.  These two teams lead the league in (lack of) points conceded so expect a low scoring and dour affair.  If Collingwood’s forward line of Mihocek, Membrey and McStay (he might play down back) can get the ball down to the feet of Elliott, McCreery and Schultz then the Adelaide defence will be under a lot of pressure.

This is absolutely NOT TO BE MISSED.

Of course, I’ll be at a previously scheduled Thursday Night Engagement Dinner hosted by a couple who think sport is the art of writing cunning prose.  It’s nice to have educated friends…even if, to quote Bob Katter, sometimes you just want to punch them.  Adelaide by 4 points.

Geelong vs Brisbane      MCG      Friday Night

Some people might say that one of the best things about having an engagement party on a Thursday night, is that you are then free to have your wedding nuptials on a Friday and Reception on Friday night which clears the weekend for people to do with what they want.  Does anyone remember the comedian Elliot Goblet?  Like him, I’m going internally berserk! I won’t be watching this one either.

The Cats have had a solid year, full of wins.  But the big question mark that hangs over their head is whether they are match hardened enough for finals?  They haven’t played a team in the top 8 since Round 18, They haven’t beaten a team in top 8 since Round 13 and they haven’t beaten a top 8 team at the MCG since Round 8.  But they are a professional outfit and there is less than a remote chance that Chris Scott won’t have them up and about for this one.  They have publicly stated they are looking for revenge for last year’s finals exit.

Brisbane on the other hand made it into 3^rd spot on the ladder and had to play top 8 teams an unprecedented 13 times throughout the regular season.  That’s a tough draw.  These guys are match hardened and the MCG now doesn’t hold the kind of fears it used to.  The worrying thing about Brisbane is that they have been prone to lapses during the year.  They drew with North Melbourne!  Just a few weeks ago Gold Coast handed them a walloping! It’s tough to know what to make of this game.

Geelong don’t have a Ruckman.  But they haven’t for the last 15 years so does it really matter?  Brisbane is littered with a mix of great experience and new, raw talent.  Is it a good mix or does this contribute to lapses if too much is left to too few?  Brisbane’s back line has been very good this season but as far as Point against go, they are only the 6^th best in the sides left in the top 8.  And then there is their scoring ability.  They’re only 5^th best in the remaining sides in that stat.  Because of this, they have the worst percentage of the teams in the top 8.  Maybe it’s because they had a tough draw.  All these great percentages happen when you get to play the bottom teams a lot…which they have not.

All I can say is it’s going to be a cracking wedding and I’m expecting some exquisite prose in the vows.  Brisbane by 13 points.

GWS vs Hawthorn           Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

In Perth there will be a big rainy dump on this day so, after a wedding, I’ll have the right to lay around on the couch and watch this game.  Thank goodness for that.  Where do we start.  In the end Hawthorn were only able to scrape into the top 8, but the fact is, everyone hates Hawthorn.  Ok, that’s a bit harsh and definitive.  They are not universally hated, just galactically.  I think the main reason is that there are so many ex Hawthorn footballers or supporters in the media (around 30%) and they keep inserting gimmicks like Hollywood Hawks, Hokball, Unsociable Hawks.  Why can’t they just be Hawthorn?

GWS have had a pretty good year which they have built into nicely.  Their record before the bye was not that great but has been really good since the bye so you could say they are hitting form at the right time.  They are also masters of day-time football with all but 3 of their 16 wins coming with the red ball in hand and 5 of their 7 losses coming in night/twilight matches.  On top of that GWS have had a pretty solid year against fellow top 8 contestants and the record between the two clubs stands at 8 wins each and a draw so this could be a good match to watch.

When it comes to points for, GWS have been the more attacking side this year, but Hawthorn have been a better defensive team when looking at points against.  The margins are pretty small on average though.  So, what does one do when picking the winner here?  I’m going to go the gutless route and stick with the home team.  Not only do they have the home ground advantage, but I think they have the experience too.  The nervous thought in my head is that they have to do this without Jesse Hogan who is out with a “Thumb.”  I’m not sure what the problem is but googling it tells me he was attempting to pull a plum out of a pie and declaring himself a good boy.  Although I also note that the GWS website has him listed with a Thumb, but the AFL website has him listed with a Foot and a chance to play.  Someone somewhere needs an anatomy lesson.  Hawthorn are missing a few of their top players too with Day out for the season and Weddle to have his back tested.  If they really want to test it, he can come to my place a use a shovel to dig out the areas I want to put in my putting green.  GWS by 17 points.

Fremantle vs Gold Coast              Perth Stadium   Saturday Night

The last match of the first week of the finals and another distracting match.  I say distracting because, the loved up couple have chosen this time and day to have a post-wedding get together, since they were able to get their nuptials out of the way and clear up a weekend spot to bring family and friends together, especially those that came in from far away.  I’d reserve the right to use the entire Sunday watching replays but I’m not sure the family respects my rights in this way.  Probably some Father Day function to attend.  It might be Kayo Mini’s for me.

Fremantle have been a surprise packet in the latter part of the season, winning 12 of their last 14 matches.  The exuberance of youth is all there to see with still one of the youngest lists in the AFL.  However, they did benefit from the AFL trying to reduce the travel load and 8 of those 12 wins were at home…where, luckily for them, this match will be played.  As mentioned, 25mm of rain is forecast to fall on the Saturday and I’m not sure if this favours Fremantle or Gold Coast.  I do know that Gold Coast has never beaten Fremantle at Perth Stadium and if there was ever a time to do it, now is it.

Gold Coast will be led by their midfield beasts of Rowell and Anderson but come up against a pretty handy Freo midfield group too with Serong, Brayshaw and Young.  The onflow problem with this is the supply to a forward line boasting Treacy, Amiss, Voss and a fleet of crafty buggers like Boulton, Reid and Fredericks.  Can they be contained by the likes of Mac Andrew, Sam Collins and Wil Powell?  At the other end of the ground, Gold Coasts forwards in Ben King (who didn’t play last time these teams met on this ground), Flanders, Walter and Long are ably supported by fleet footed small forwards and sneaky midfielders.  Fremantle’s wall is well built though and boasts Pearce, Cox and Luke Ryan in shutdown roles. 

This match might just come down to the sub.  Fyfe, most probably for Freo and who gets the job for Gold Coast?  David Swallow?  Two old battle bulls…would be great to see.

I’m chickening out again and going with the home team.  I think a more solid defence (even though they’ve conceded more points) and more potent attack (even though they haven’t scored as much) but importantly they’ve played more top 8 teams than Gold Coast and have beaten more of them.  Not to mention they have more finals experience.  Fremantle by 10 points.