Round 19 AFL Preview

 Last Week           7/9           Season Total      97/153 

What a week to take a vacation.  There was so much to write about.  Adam Simpson exited West Coast and Heeney lost his Brownlow.  Could there be a bigger story?  I mean, someone would have to take a shot at an ex-President to be a bigger story.  Oh!  Well, he did say he’d give his right ear to be president again.  Now, the way things go there in the US he will be a shoo-in for the next top guy, and he’ll do it with substantial donations from the NRA.  It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

Last weeks’ vacation was jam-packed with good times for the kids.  So much so that now if my daughter is sedentary for more than three minutes, she tells me how bored she is.  I guess that’s a success.  This week is the last week that won’t be interrupted by The Olympics as the opening ceremony is the week afterwards and some of the events which take a long time like Rugby and Soccer actually start before then.

So, shall we take a look at this week’s games?

Essendon vs Adelaide   Marvel Stadium               Friday Night
Melbourne halted Essendon’s ball movement last week and the resulting loss has them teetering on the edge of the top 8 again.  Adelaide made Saint Kilda pay in the final quarter.  I didn’t see the game but the score worm looked like it might have been depressing to watch.  Adelaide certainly has the firepower to beat Essendon at Marvel, but Essendon looks more settled this year than others.  Adelaide has only played at Docklands the once this year, which was a narrow win against Carlton.  But the big stat is probably that regardless of where they play, they haven’t beaten Essendon for 7 years.  But the last time they did beat Essendon was at Marvel.  Essendon by 21 points.

GWS vs Gold Coast         Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon
One thing we know for sure is that Gold Coast will win if they’re playing at home and lose if they’re playing away from home.  Q.E.D.  GWS by 30 points.  But I’m sure you want a bit more analysis than that.  Gold Coast have also only beaten GWS once in the last 10 years.  There’s some more info.

Saint Kilda vs West Coast             Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon
The big news last week was Simmo’s departure which came with a hint of spite from the WA newspaper and a sniping comment from Simmo (who was right).  Then there were some serious conspiracy theories with Simpson allegedly mouthing off to Reid on the way out of the press conference which was later revealed to be nothing.  So, with all that, what happens this week?  After a change in coach mid-season the next game is always a 50:50 proposition but the team has always won one in the next 3 weeks.  Given Saint Kilda haven’t been playing that well, perhaps this is the one?  This is another game that has that curious scheduling anomaly that they’ve not played each other at St Kilda’s home ground in 5 years for whatever reason so it’s hard to look at form.  West Coast on the road though…Saint Kilda by 7 points.

Hawthorn vs Collingwood           MCG      Saturday Twilight
The proverbial 8-point match this one.  Both teams effectively occupy the same spot on the ladder and need a win to keep their finals hopes alive.  But let’s look at last week first.  I attended this match and so I can’t help but feel that Collingwood losing is entirely my fault.  I’ve attended Collingwood playing Geelong 9 times now in my life and my record is 0-9 for Collingwood.  Perhaps this would have been better for you to know rather than some cockamamy reference to Schrödinger’s Cat.  But at least in being there I could see the whole ground at once and could see Collingwood problem, which is this.  They are shit.  To break that down a bit, since Murphy’s forced retirement they have not been able to settle their backline and the freedom that Moore previously had does not work without Murphy.  Hawthorn have taken up the charge and like to get up against Collingwood.  Their previous meeting this year in Adelaide was Hawthorns highest ranking game of the season and it won’t surprise me if they rise to those heights again as they enjoy Collingwood’s misery.  Hawthorn by 16 points.

Geelong vs Footscray    Kardinia Park     Saturday Night
The Cats picked apart Collingwood comeback tactics last week by playing keepy off in the last quarter.  Meanwhile Footscray showed just what they’re capable of against Carlton.  This should be a good match although the advantage goes to Geelong given the match is at a half-wingless Kardinia Park.  Footscray don’t have a particularly good record down at Kardinia losing 11 of their last 12.  But the important detail in that statistic is that the last one was the one that they won.  Which of course makes tipping just a slight bit more difficult.  I think Footscray is a better side than Geelong but despite them having a few losses down there recently, I’m inclined to go with Geelong at home.  Geelong by 15 points.

Port Adelaide vs Richmond         Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night
The fact that this game is in Adelaide should make it a fait acompli.  But the last time Richmond won a game was when they stunned Adelaide at Adelaide Oval so maybe it’s a place they like to play well in.  Also, despite a couple of wins (against teams outside the 8), Port Adelaide haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire with amazing game play.  But then Richmond is not in the 8 either, so…Port Adelaide by 29 points.

Brisbane vs Sydney         Gabba   Sunday Afternoon
Well, I was all geared up to talk about tackles and Cameron not being able to use the ‘Good Bloke’ defence anymore because you can’t use it twice.  Even Annakin Skywalker got a free pass on the Sand People but was no longer a good bloke after killing Samuel L Jackson.  It’s been a crazy week for the AFL.  Some guys lay some tackles which unluckily hurt their opponents and so they get rubbed out for weeks.  AFL Player finally arc up and say it’s not and we’re confused and had planned on just playing touch rules this weekend.  The AFL backed it in, but the lawyers said nup!  Now everyone’s a good bloke again and the game is about as broken as it’s ever been.

This all means I can write a novel before even mentioning the match of the round.  Brisbane is coming good at the right part of the year and Sydney has been a bit shaky the last few weeks.  Scheduling for early Sunday is a bit of a miss by the AFL but after cooking pancakes for breakfast for the kids and building a retaining wall in the back yard, I might just be ready to settle in for this one.  Sniffing the wind…Brisbane by 13 points.

Fremantle vs Melbourne             Perth Stadium   Sunday Afternoon
The Dockers had a slip up in Tasmania and proved that Hawks can indeed fly when tied to an anchor.  A lot of things can happen on planes.  I’ve had a shower at 40-thousand feet once, but it was using regular water.  Golden showers aren’t my thing, but the Freo Players had to flirt with those decisions when the toilets on the flights became non-functional.  Melbourne put Essendon in their place, but it will be a tougher task to do against Fremantle on the rock-hard surface of Perth Stadium.  Fremantle by 6 points.

Carlton vs North Melbourne      Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight
The Blues slipped up last week, but after gaining a solid understanding of canine vision it was easy to work out why.  I’m not sure if anyone has ever done a study on the wavelengths of light that Kangaroos see in, but they are called boxing Kangaroos and since a Blue is colloquially a fight, you’d have to think they stand a chance.  But I think in this case, a Blue is more of an argument you have with the spouse rather than a boxing match and I think the Kangaroos will be out-gunned.  The firepower in the middle and the Carlton forward line will be too much for the young Roos and they can take a nice lesson in the future here.  There will be patches of brilliance though.  Carlron by 41 points.