Round 20 AFL Preview

 Last Week           7/9           Season Total      104/162

What a week it was.  I’m not just talking about the tipping.  7 from 9 was not a bad return, but so much was happening, it just wasn’t funny.  Of course, the biggest of news was that Joe Biden finally pulled out of the race for president.  This of course is a problem for Donald Trump because a campaign that relies on waiting for Joe to have a Senior moment now requires quite a bit of writing and thought…not Trumps strong points.  And he will have some serious social issues not being able to make any comments on race, religion or gender.  Given his penchant for, shall we say, stretching the truth a little, I’m not sure he even has Kamala covered off the tee.  I also have a lot of lines about him giving her an ear full or an ear bashing, but I’ll stop short of waxing lyrical with that.

Speaking of golf, The Open was great viewing, not only because it was on at a reasonable time, but I found it refreshing to see pro golfers punished for poor decision-making and wild sprays off the tee.  Those bunkers looked awful and if I ever want to play Royal Troon, I’ll be sure to practice taking a full swing out of a teacup before playing.

The Olympics will finally start this week.  It won’t be much of a distraction from the footy however as finals will be at 4AM and heats will be on after the night matches finish.  I think, anyway.  But of course there will be wall to wall 24-7 coverage of everything you don’t want to watch.  There will be talking and other interruptions during everything you actually want to watch.  Of interest was the mascot for this Olympics being some kind of stylized red and blue blob.  It made me think of that great 1976 series called The Red and The Blue which was a clay stop-motion animation which I thought was French, but it turns out was Italian.  In any event, Google it and if you’re old enough (or young enough) to reminisce, it will bring some joy to an otherwise dreary day.

Katy Perry has been confirmed as Grand Final entertainment.  I’m not that familiar with her work but she looks to bring a different vibe than KISS and probably appeals to a different demographic.  But as far as I know, she’s a bit of a Dark Horse, but performs like a Firework and is very even in her melodies, never Hot N Cold and I can’t wait for her to Roar.  Oh yeah, and on an unrelated matter, I Kissed a Girl.

Lots of stuff also happened in the footy, and, as you know, I like to address all that below.

Carlton vs Port Adelaide              Marvel Stadium               Friday Night
Last week Carlton played North Melbourne and the Umpires got another win, climbing into second on the ladder.  During the week, we, the people, got to have our say in the AFL’s annual survey and we mostly wanted consistency from the umpires.  It got a lot of airplay and I listened intently to the wireless as one punter thought the best way to fix it was to have an umpires boss and bench so that umpires could be dragged if they screwed up and get a dressing down over the phone.  Part of me really wants to see that.  Carlton / AFL also had some controversy around McKay staying out on the ground after seeing stars.  The doctors all deemed him to be a competent astronomer, so he got the all clear to continue.  Port Adelaide also got the chocolates, but it took an unconvincingly long time for them to shake Richmond.  Port just haven’t been convincing enough for me to justify tipping them, but injuries at The Blues to key players might just give them a sniff.  Carlton by 10.

North Melbourne vs Geelong    Bellerive             Saturday Afternoon
The Roos stayed in the fight for longer than anyone predicted last week and were only really snuffed out by some umpires with vested interests right at the end.  Geelong looked a bit out-classed as Footscray “Lobbed” in and took the points.  Geelong is an enigma case this season (which is better than being an enema case), winning their first 7 against bottom sides then going on a losing streak against good sides and now having some wins against bad sides again.  Kinda puts them in the middle of the road.  But North is a bottom side so if the formula is right, Geelong by 17 points.

Gold Coast vs Brisbane                 Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon
It was a hectic build up to the match against Sydney with Charlie Cameron only cleared to play a couple of days out after errors of law were detected.  It never ceases to amaze me that the AFL keeps telling us that it is not a court of law, but a Tribunal and yet defense’s are launched by Kings Counsels and “Errors of Law” can be found.  Anyway, it means the staff at The Gabba didn’t need to pull the Country Road tape out of rotation.  I would also like to take this opportunity to pick on the Analysts.  Brisbane has been a great case study of analysts coming to poor conclusions this season.  This is all about grouping and reading statistics.  I watch the analytical shows while pulling my fast-thinning hair out as they say things like, “In rounds 1-8 these are their stats and that’s why they were losing, but in rounds 9 – 18 these are now their stats and it’s why their winning.”  Could be, yes.  But if you look at who they played, it was the top teams in Rounds 1-8 and the bottom teams in Rounds 9-18.  Could be that they played the same, just the opposition changed, and the opposition determine if they were on top of one stat or another.  In all cases when these stats are presented, the boundary point of the change is a key selection point and in science, this is heavily frowned upon and is a quick way to get yourself laughed out of the lab.  But what really gets my goat is “professionals” come on the TV and use this grouped data to tell you how to bet.

Anyway, I have lodged a grievance with the TV channels directly and made my feelings known on the subject in the AFL Fan Feedback Survey.  I await their response.

Gold Coast have made Carrara their fortress and this makes this a difficult selection to make.  While it’s a bit foreign for interstate clubs to come to Carrara, it’s just a reference point to mark the turn off to the best nightclubs on the strip for Brisbanites.  While I think the reasons and the stats that analysts put forth are wrong, I think Brisbane is playing a bit better than earlier in the year.  But with Harris Andrew in Concussion Protocols, maybe favour is with Gold Coast.  I really don’t know which way to go on this one, although I will point out that I enjoy the fact we have a player named Shadeau Brain in this time of concussion concerns.  Time to toss…a coin that is.  Brisbane by 1 point.

Saint Kilda vs Essendon                                Marvel Stadium               Saturday Twilight
What’s this?  Another tough game to tip?  Saint Kilda all of a sudden look like a reasonable team to back and Essendon seem to be faltering at the final hurdle.  This is the kind of game where if you need to make up a point to reel in the leader, you can get it here.  Of course, you could also lengthen the gap by a point such are the vagaries of maths.  I tell you now, if you need to make up a point, pick Essendon…or St Kilda, depending on your personal situation.  If it helps in any way, the last couple of encounters between these teams have been close, but Essendon have won most of the recent Docklands encounters between them.  Seems like a good basis for a guess.  Or what I mean is it makes a good statistical foundation upon which to underpin this decision. (Phew!  Thought I might have lost your confidence there).  Essendon by 3 points.

Melbourne vs GWS        MCG      Saturday Night
The Demons got a lesson last week.  Not the kind of lesson they got the last time they played Fremantle, but this time it was a lesson in Rucking.  Taking no recognised ruckman into a bout with two pretty darn good ones is a quick way to find yourself on the back foot.  Not that it was their fault.  Max Gawn is not available, and they can’t do anything about that.  If only they had a readymade top quality Ruckman who was running around in the 2’s unable to get a spot in the seniors?  Oh yeah, that’s right.  GWS beat the Suns last week but that was hardly surprising as it was a Suns away game.  This is a danger game for Melbourne.  If they don’t win this one, they’ll lose touch with the top 8 and start planning their Mad Monday.  GWS are no easy beats and seem to have re-found some of that form that had them up the top of the ladder earlier in the season.  I think they can do it.  GWS by 16 points.

Fremantle vs West Coast             Perth Stadium   Saturday Night
Time for another Derby.  Fremantle will go in as favourites while West Coast search for a new coach.  Simpsons departure was handled well by the club but handled in more of a “Suck Shit You Loser” kind of manner by the WA Newspaper.  And it’s because of this, their search will be long and arduous as they need to find candidates who not only can coach a football team but can withstand the intense scrutiny, pressure and ruinous determination of The West Australian journalists as well as the impatience of West Coast supporters who don’t pity the fool (did I just quote BA Baracus?)  Well, another quote from Mr. T is “To have a comeback, you need a setback” so maybe this is just the tonic that West Coast need to spur them to victory against their cross-town rivals.  The added bonus is neither West Australian team has to travel this week and as we all know, BA Baracus “ain’t getting’ on no airplane.”  Fremantle by 15 points.

Collingwood vs Richmond           MCG      Sunday Afternoon
The Pies got Ginnivan’d last week.  Resoundingly. And Mad Monday preparations can begin in earnest.  Vultures (aka Journalists) have jumped on them immediately and have framed the conversation as the team being past it, rather than a form slump.  It’s an alarmist point of view and one that is easier to write as you have their published ages to support your argument whereas a form slump requires a whole lot of statistical analysis that I’ve previously shown they’re just not up to curating correctly.  True, Collingwood have the oldest average age of any team this year, but this is the time of year when old age and 15+ seasons usually starts to be advantageous as the young kids complain about the length of the season.  You see, it takes us old guys a long time to warm up.  I usually don’t start playing decent golf until about the 7^th hole.  Although I did get a magnificent birdie on the 1^st the other day but I’m only telling you that because I’m telling everyone.  I got a horrific double bogey on the 2^nd, but I’m not telling anyone about that!

Meanwhile, Richmond toiled hard against Port Adelaide but were eventually overrun in the long grass of Adelaide Oval.  This is a danger game for Collingwood because Richmond will fancy a late season win here as The Pies battle a form slump.  The Pies haven’t reached the “mathematically impossible” stage yet, but I think they need to win all of their games to get there and that includes Sydney in Sydney.  A win against Richmond might be just the tonic they need, or a loss is just the tonic they need with their Gin as their season sinks.  Collingwood by 23 points.

Sydney vs Footscray       SCG        Sunday Afternoon
The Swans have stumbled a bit in the last few weeks and now some high profile injuries are starting to litter their worksheet.  Footscray in the same time came through a series of tough matches looking a bit like world-beaters.  The first installment of this match up was only about 8 weeks ago and it was a pretty unconvincing win by Sydney down at Docklands  Put simply though, you just can’t go against Sydney at the SCG unless they’re playing Fremantle but I think this match will be tighter than people think and I even give Footscray a tiny chance, or maybe miniscule.  Sydney by 14 points.

Adelaide vs Hawthorn  Adelaide Oval   Sunday Twilight

Will the real Ben Keayes please stand up?  On Brownlow night if he doesn’t get 3 votes for that, the system is broken (which we already know it is anyway).  But we might also see 3 votes for Ginnivan from last week too as he showed Collingwood that they should have fought a bit harder to keep him.  He’s a cheeky and charismatic bugger and adds a spark to otherwise dreary football.  Hawthorn is playing such good football at the moment and seem to be on a real charge to squeak into the finals.  Adelaide can’t make it but would surely like to bust some caps in the run home.  This is the first time since 2020 that the match has been scheduled in Adelaide and historically Hawthorn are pretty good on the Adelaide Oval.  Some rivalry can be pegged back to the Preliminary Final in 2012 which was a close game although it’s tough to draw any comparisons as the only Hawthorn people playing that are still there are Bruest and Mitchell.  I think this could be an upset.  But is Hawthorn winning an upset, or is Adelaide winning an upset?  Definitely an upset…Adelaide by 6 points.