Finals Week 4 AFL Preview - Grand Final

Last Week           2/2           Season Total      131/215

It’s come down to this.  The last installment of the 2024 season and we are raring to go.  But of course, there are some other formalities to get out of the way first.

Last week, I managed to get both tips right.  A rare event this finals series.  Sydney steam-rolled Port who, as suspected, probably played their Grand Final the week before.  They were never really in the hunt and Ken copped it from the supporters as suspected, but it’s too late this season to do anything about it.  To the trade negotiations they go.  What will Ken’s benchmark be for next season?  He’s fast running out of reasons not to be in Grand Finals.

Geelong were gallant but ultimately succumbed to a surging Brisbane who came back from 25 points down in what is becoming a regular theme for the Lions.  Can they win it after a triple road trip?  Find out below.  Geelong perhaps performed above themselves for much of the season and were benefitted by a pretty good draw, which ultimately didn’t serve them well in the end, although you could argue they were but a smidgen away from a Grand Final Berth.  Mad Monday celebrations kicked off with great interest in their now famous costume parties.  More paparazzi snapping photos of that than Kim Kardashians derriere…well, almost…well, not even close.

The other big event was the Brownlow Medal evening, which once again caused a great deal of controversy in an era when people can quickly look up statistics to check the umpires’ understanding.  Nick Daicos scored more votes than any other player in history, with one key exception.  Cripps scored more votes than is almost possible to beat Daicos for a Charlie.  Punters were quick on the stats showing that Cripps was polling well in games he was crap in and Daicos was stealing his brothers votes…literally.  I can see the umpires in the room after a match now.  Daicos went alright, let’s give him 3 votes.  Which one was it?  Can’t remember, just write “Daicos” and let the AFL sort it out.

Personally, I’m not doubting that Cripps doesn’t deserve another Brownlow, but there was a lot of chatter around whether or not he had the all-time greatest season by any player in all history of time and space (or at least during the 3-2-1 era).  Not just more votes, but 25% more votes, which is quite a lot.  But is the Brownlow actually a medal for the best and fairest in the league, or just a measure of how much better one person is than the rest of their own team.  Needless to say, there is plenty of room on Cripps’ neck because his shoulders have sunk so low after carrying his team for so long.

What does The Bont have to do to get a vote?  But playing records aside, the AFL night of nights is really about the frocks.  The telecast (which I’ll admit I did not watch) seems to spend longer covering the Red Carpet than anything else in an effort to get a controversial glimpse of a plunging neckline, split thigh or jewel encrusted G-string.

The parade will be on later this week and hopefully will be down the streets and not down The Yarra.  It didn’t work in Melbourne and it didn’t work in Paris so the world should just put the river floats away I think.  On to the Grand Final.

Sydney vs Brisbane         MCG      Saturday Afternoon

The Big Dance is here.  The die is cast, who will win and how do we even assess it?  The Big O won’t be playing and I’m not talking about Roy Orbison (although he won’t be playing either).  Oscar McInerney did his shoulder, and this is a key OUT for Brisbane.  Captain Callum Mills will also be OUT for Sydney after testing his hamstring mid-week proved too much.  Who comes in?  will Taylor Adams get his fairytale or not?  Let’s break this dance down:

Brisbane Backs vs Sydney Forwards

The Lions have a very functional backline with Andrews, McKenna and Zorko providing drive off half-back.  Pit this against the Sydney forwards though who don’t really have a key position except for decoy Amartey and bunch of mobile small forwards combined with gun midfielders pitching in.  I’d give this match up to Sydney.

Sydney Backs vs Brisbane Forwards

The backline of Sydney is also pretty handy with McCartin, Blakey and Rampe trying to contain the weapon in Daniher, sniper in Cameron and blunderbuss Hipwood.  They also have a fleet of sneaky dudes who like to pitch in for a goal or two.  I give this to Brisbane as Sydney like to give their opponents enough rope and I rely on Brisbane not hanging themselves although they have had some sustained periods of inaccuracy this year!

Midfield vs Midfield

What a great battle we have in store for us here.  With names like Warner, Gulden, Heeney and Rowbottom against names like Neale, Rayner and McCluggage.  I’m not sure if tagging will be on any agendas but both teams should consider it.  I give Sydney the edge in this department as once, “I’d like to only play for one club” Grundy is a gun Ruckman and will give primary use to Sydney at the stoppages.

Brains

I’m not talking about Shadeau here, what I refer to is that so much of the modern game is played between the ears.  It will be those who have the mental fortitude and calmness in a crisis to deal with the pressure of an AFL Grand Final who will win the day.  Brisbane has very recent experience and could be the better team in this department.

The Slog

Brisbane have slogged their way into the Grand Final, coming back from deficits after two matches on the road in a row.  Sydney had a tough first one and had plenty of time off before strolling into the Grand Final and may well run the game out better than Brisbane.

All this analysis, which I never give week to week and what does it all amount to?  Not a lick of anything really.  I may as well just discuss the impact of this match on the US Presidential Election.  It has a bigger impact than you might think.  If Sydney win, reason will prevail, and the season will make sense, and we’ll find we’re not living in an alternate universe and Kamala Harris will win.  But if those Queenslanders win, the universe is clearly up the poop chute, Trump gets back in, and we see just how deep this rabbit hole can go!

So, it’s time for a final statement.  A final prognostication.  I fancy Sydney on the basis of skill, but I fancy Brisbane on the basis of experience.  For all you Victorians out there, there is no winner, and they might be right as a win by either side will be just a passing fancy that will have lost its shine before the weekend is over.  Sydneysiders will go back to their Latte’s, Land Rover Disco 6’s and stupidly priced real estate and Queenslanders will crack another XXXX and turn their attention to the NRL (or maybe not as I don’t think any Queensland sides are in it).  The AFL moves pretty quickly anyway, and I expect all attention will be on trades before Katy Perry can say, “Baby, you’re a firework.”  Hopefully she has a good time.  At least it’s a better gig than being the entertainment at a P. Diddy party.  Sydney by 31 points.