Round 4 Preview

Last Week           6/8           Season Total      19/27

I’ll start this intro off by taking a swipe at Kayo.  If you want to watch all the games live, then this is your only option.  Also, if you enjoy other sports, like golf, formula 1, car jitsu (that’s wrestling in car) then Kayo is also your go to.  Kayo knows a lot about me.  They keep all sorts of information on me.  Who I am, what my email address is, how to periodically take money from me without me having to know about it, and what I enjoy watching.  They keep all of this information and use it so that they can message me, email, harangue me, cajole me and make sure that I’m always thinking about them and thinking of ways I should be giving them more money.  But the one thing they don’t do, is remember where I got up to when watching 9 and half hours of golf.  And let me tell you, as someone who knows a bit about software / app development, this is a pretty easy thing for them to do.  You can’t watch 9 hours all at once.  Well, you can, but you then have to deal with follow on effects like arguments followed by divorce and such things.  So why, when you sit down and think, “it’s 20 minutes before bouncedown and I’m pretty sure Dermie isn’t going to come up with a pearl of wisdom so I’ll watch Min Woo play a few holes,” do I have to spend 27 f’n minutes trying to find the spot where I last left off.  C’mon Kayo…you can do better.

Sad news descended this week with the passing of Andrew Krakouer.  A very handy footballer and a man who turned his life around after some mis-steps.  If you’re over 40 – no matter your health, ask your doctor about a heart checkup.

On to this week’s matches.

Collingwood vs Carlton MCG      Thursday Night

It’s not like the season is a write off just yet, but it’s getting close for Carlton.  There’s nothing like a clash with the old enemy to kick your season off.  To spur you on.  To give you the impetus to make headway into the prevailing winds.  But for Carlton it is a 6-day break when Collingwood are coming off a bye and a 12-day break.  But I’m inclined to think that this early in the season, the bye is an interruption and not a welcome holiday.  Collingwood had just started to get their mojo and were forced to take a break while Carlton continued to grind away and get more match hardened.  The odds are heavily stacked towards Collingwood but there is good money to be made with a sneaky bet on the Blues.  They have the cattle, they should be doing this.  I feel like each week I’m coming up with new ways to convince myself that Carlton is capable.  Collingwood has a good form guide over Carlton in recent times winning 10 of the last 12 contests which probably speaks volumes for who I should tip, but then I’ve just arbitrarily chosen a cutoff point in that stat.  You could just as easily say that Carlton have won 129 of the last 266 match ups but that just muddies the waters.  I’ve tipped Carlton every game this year and been disappointed 3 times.  This is their last chance.  If they don’t win this one, I’m finding a Carlton member so I can microwave their membership.  Carlton by 9 points.

Geelong vs Melbourne Kardinia Park     Friday Night

Then there’s Melbourne.  Another team that has a 0-3 start and has been beaten in some pretty convincing ways.  Last week they let a plucky little pip-squeak into their home who then proceeded to just make a god awful mess of things.  The cleanup will take ages.  Is it their game plan?  Over the offseason they preached a team message of love, peace and harmony, but being a hippie on the footy field just doesn’t work.  The footy field is likened to a battlefield (rightly or wrongly) and is no place for conscientious objectors.  Now this week the battle takes place down on a narrow strip of land they call Kardinia Park against an army stinging from their own unlikely defeat.  The ground has no flanks for manoeuvres and requires a deft balance of covered retreat followed by surging advances.  The battle heroes of old Melbourne will need to pull themselves out of their funk and get busy.  Will only a win suffice for the Demons, or will an honorable loss provide a much needed pause from the media onslaught?  They should at least try to get to within 10 goals.  Geelong by 17 points.

Gold Coast vs Adelaide Carrara Saturday Afternoon

Speaking of the pip-squeak upstarts they just did what they wanted last week and the game before that.  This is two wins on the road in a row and now, finally after 4 weeks they get their first home game.  I’ll admit, I hate the Opening Round concept.  And now that we have a ladder where some teams have played 2 less than everyone with no timeline on rectification, it just causes all kinds of issues.  Here’s some scheduling advice for the AFL…limit northern games while monsoon season is still active and, early season have a few more night matches and less 35 degree-middle-of-the-day games.  This might mean scheduling two games at the same time which won’t make Kayo happy, but until they can sort out how to remember where I was 9.5 hours into a golf telecast, they don’t deserve it.

Lost my train of thought there.  Adelaide has been mighty impressive and perhaps are showing the form that we expected of them last year.  Having Thilthorpe back is a big help this year.  And the fact that a key defender needs a forklift and the required operating certification to move him is an added bonus.  This is a tough one to pick as both teams have been dishing out heavy defeats, albeit to lowly ranked teams.  I think you have to stick with the home team until we see the form line.  Gold Coast by 15 points.

Richmond vs Brisbane   MCG      Saturday Afternoon

After the first round defeat of Carlton, us tipsters are sure glad that Richmond has settled into a more predictable pattern.  Brisbane came from behind against Geelong to snatch the win and last years wooden spooner against last years premiers isn’t going to throw up any unexpected results.  Brisbane by 75 points.

North Melbourne vs Sydney      Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

Speaking of unpredictable, I feel like North Melbourne has finally reached that point in their development.  They’ll win more than you expect this year, and it is a case of finding the right ones.  Sydney will be coming off a bye and I feel like North Melbourne might fancy themselves on the fast indoor deck of Marvel.  The problem with going out on a limb is the further you go, the thinner it gets.  Maybe don’t follow on me on this one…North Melbourne by 3 points.

GWS vs West Coast        Showgrounds    Sunday Afternoon

A season that promised a bit more than the previous one is quickly turning into a steaming pile for West Coast.  A loss to cross-town rivals and potentially now missing key post McGovern for a few, with Reid playing below his best and Allen out of sorts, impending doom is all the horizon holds.  Carrion eaters are circling the carcass with Allen, Reid and a few others being looked at by teams whose mascots eat those kinds of vital organs.  I’d be worried if I were a West Coast supporter.  It doesn’t get easier at all for them this week facing GWS, reeling from a loss down in Tassie and looking to put a more authoritative stamp on the season.  Eagles supporters should look for healthier things to do on Sunday.  GWS by 89 points.

Port Adelaide vs Saint Kilda       Adelaide Oval   Sunday Afternoon

Can a succession plan ever be successful?  I think yes, there are two ways you can make a successful succession plan.  Number 1, and this is the most important rule for a successful succession plan, is DON’T TELL ANYONE ABOUT IT!  All you do is invite people into the mix who are only trying to screw it up.  Number 2, put the successor in the top spot with support from the senior.  It works much better that way.  Anyway, Port will be back in the safety of their home this week and St Kilda will have bad memories of what happened to them here 2 weeks ago.  Port Adelaide by 22 points.

Fremantle vs Footscray Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

The final fling for the round is the battle of the F’s.  Flying Fremantle finally featured last week and fearless Footscray forced forward…phenomenal!  Footy is funny and fickle, always fair but never forgiving.  F..k, I’ve run out of ‘F’ adjectives.  This should be a good game to watch because, although Fremantle got the win last week, they were less than convincing against a hapless opponent and the dogs were tenacious to claw their way back into the contest and best the Blues.  The pups record at Perth stadium is patchy at best but fragile Fremantle might be ripe enough to pluck.  It’s hard to go against the home team and as fantastic as Footscray are, I’m expecting some steam to come out of the engine soon.  Maybe it’s this week.  Fremantle by 12 points.

Byes:  Hawthorn, Essendon

Essendon finally got momentum and now have to sit one out and the rest of the competition is glad that Hawthorn won’t be seen this week.