Round 5 Preview

Last Week           5/8           Season Total      24/35

It felt like one of those weekends when there just wasn’t enough time to watch much footy.  Not that much of it was exciting, although the Gold Cost/Adelaide match was a ripper.  But more on that later.  This week is Gather Round so the spotlight will be on Adelaide and the Barossa Valley with the idea that people will travel from all over the country to witness a capitulating succession plan firsthand.  Let’s have a closer look the matches…the first time all 9 games will happen since Round 1 (the second round).

Adelaide vs Geelong     Adelaide Oval   Thursday Night

The best thing about the AFL coming out and saying they got it wrong, and that Adelaide lost because of it, is it’s the second time it’s happened, and history shows us that it takes Adelaide at least a year to be any good again because of it.  I can only imagine if Adelaide finish 9^th, one game out of the 8…  The controversy aside, Adelaide’s beastly forward line was firing on Saturday with Walker, Fogarty and Thilthorp (a.k.a Tex, Foggo and Filthy) monstering the Gold Coast backline.  For Geelong, the equation is simple…keep those three quiet and who else will kick their goals?  Simple…right?  The Cats themselves returned to the winners circle but it’s going to be a big task to contain those three on the Adelaide Oval.  Especially when they’re angry…we won’t like them when they’re angry.  Adelaide by 32 points.

Collingwood vs Sydney Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

“Who do you think, you are kidding Mr. Vossy…”

“If you think we’re on the run.”

“We are the boys who will stop your little game.”

“We are the boys who will make you think again.”

If you don’t remember, that’s the theme to Dad’s Army which is who beat Carlton last week.  I don’t remember watching it because I sat down with my own personal cheeseboard and charcuterie platter, washing it down with a nicely acidic Baltic Porter.  Just as I polished off my 3^rd kilogram of cheese and 27^th slice of ultra-hot salami I remembered I’m lactose intolerant and spicy food triggers my reflux.  The acidic beer was extremely unhelpful, and I spent the night curled in the foetal position.  Sydney, despite their injuries, dispatched North Melbourne with relative ease and will need to back it up against the old rival (not as in a rival from a long time ago, but a rival who is old).  This is an interesting one to tip with Sydney beating Collingwood 5 out of the last 6 times, but then Collingwood hasn’t lost at Adelaide Oval for their last 9 matches there.  Will they make 10, or are they due for a loss?  Collingwood by 10

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast                               Barossa Park      Saturday Afternoon

Is this going to be the first game of AFL footy ever played at Barossa Park?  I think so.  This makes it tough to get a read on the form.  Although it is undefeated Gold Coast versus usually defeated North Melbourne, so it makes it a little easier to predict.  It’s official, Gold Coast have learned to win away AND at home (you do that by paying the umpires).  This game is neither home nor away, so I don’t know what to do.  Gold Coast by 28 points.

Carlton vs West Coast    Adelaide Oval   Saturday Afternoon

Realistically, Carlton are only 2 games out of the 8.  Panic stations are at least a couple of stops away but their second halves have become a very large simian on their dorsal side.  They have now been beaten by the youngest and oldest sides ever to take the field.  I swore last week that I wouldn’t tip them again, but they are taking on West Coast this week, who not only are currently expert losers, but also have mounting injury concerns which makes that mountain just a bit higher to climb.  It doesn’t help to unite a team when your captain has to come out and apologise for taking a trade bait meeting with Hawthorn.  Interesting to note he issued the apology in what looked suspiciously like a Hawthorn jumper!?  Let me tell you…if Carlton loses this week… Carlton by 45 points.

Footscray vs Brisbane    Norwood Oval  Saturday Twilight

The Lions are also lossless this year, but Footscray seem to have some pluckiness about them.  Even though they’ve lost a few of them, they’ve been right in the contest until the end.  Brisbane has had a pretty soft landing in 2025, and this could be their first test for the season.  Brisbane by 19 points.

Melbourne vs Essendon               Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Essendon dragged themselves out of a hole just before the bye and Melbourne tumbled deeper into one.  As we know, it’s all about optics and it’s the media who have all the lenses.  So even though only 2 games out of the 8, Melbourne has effectively been written off by the media.  This match will be a must watch with Melbourne in a must-win situation and Essendon needing a win to continue their season kick off.  However it is a tough one to pick, but there is some precedence with these two teams squaring off on Gather Round a couple of years ago.  Back then it was Essendon by 27 and I’m at the point where Melbourne is going to have to win me back (why can’t I be that ruthless with Carlton).  Essendon by 14.

Richmond vs Fremantle                                Barossa Park      Sunday Afternoon

The second of two matches at Barossa.  Let’s face it, the wheels have fallen off at Richmond, so this match is only going to go one way.  Enjoy a nice wine if you’re visiting the region, or if you’re game, the ground is not far from a Nudist Club (according to Google) for some extra curricular activities.  Freo still need to tread carefully…Richmond was pretty competitive last week.  Fremantle by 31 points.

Saint Kilda vs GWS         Norwood Oval  Sunday Twilight

What’s up with Saint Kilda?  They heaped more misery on Port Adelaide by going and beating them at home and then immediately telling Adelaidians that their city is too crap to go and see or do anything while they’re staying there for the week.  GWS returned to the winner’s circle with a thumping win over the struggling West Coast.  I still have GWS down to win the lot and this is just a steppingstone to that end.  GWS by 28 points

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn         Adelaide Oval   Sunday Night

I think you could skip along the succession planning so long as you’re winning at home…oops!  The pressure will be mounting on Hinkley with the Guillotine ready to drop at any moment.  Thank goodness for him Carlton is absorbing all the spotlight.  Things won’t get easier with ladder leaders Hawthorn poised to dish out a second loss at home on-the-trot.  This should be a spiteful encounter with last year’s matches being won by Hawthorn by 1 and 3 points respectively.  You might recall that time that Hinkley had a crack at Ginnivan.  Or you might recall that one where Hawthorn was embarrassed after losing when being 2 goals up with 30 seconds to play.  port would want to avoid any embarrassment this year and a loss would unlock the next level of media scrutiny on the succession plan.  I’m still tipping it to go boom after Round 7.  To facilitate that implosion, it must be Hawthorn by 7 points.