Round 7 Preview

Last Week           6/9           Season Total      37/53

A number of upsets on the weekend made it a tough round to pick and I think getting 6 was pretty serviceable.  Sure, someone somewhere probably got 9, but it was probably a Canadian who was bullied into joining the office tipping and before tipping asks questions like “Why do they get 6 points when the puck goes in the net?”

I managed to enjoy the weekends footy a bit and also watched a bit of swimming and watched Kennedy and Gout Gout miss the final of the Stawell Gift.  All the while I became a chemistry expert trying to balance the chemical levels in my pool which had gotten a bit out of whack!  I certainly learned a lot.  I mean, I’m not ready to start cooking Meth for the masses yet, but if you get a high from floating in a body of essentially drinkable spring water then I’m your man.  On the Monday, I also did one of those chores that you put off for a while.  But to ensure I didn’t get interrupted during the footy, I got stuck into it about an hour before bouncedown and then 3 hours later understood why I put it off for so long.  At least I got to see the last quarter.

The biggest outside of footy news was Pope Francis passing away.  After Easter, but suspiciously a few hours after meeting with JD Vance.  I’m not alleging anything here, but he does seem like the kind of guy you’d talk to and then come up with a great excuse like that to get out of a follow up meeting!  We’ll wait for the puff of smoke now and I’ll keep an eye out on Seek for the vacancy…might throw my hat in the ring.  If they offer a Novated Lease on a Pope-Mobile, that’d be a great incentive!

This week is the ANZAC round, and we’ll remember all those who gave so much.  We are currently reminded that the freedoms we have now can be quickly taken away.  We must remember the sacrifices to provide those freedoms that those before us gave so willingly.  Lest We Forget.

Melbourne vs Richmond              MCG      Thursday Night

The now traditional ANZAC Eve match.  It’s an amazing spectacle, which I think I say every year.  And with both Melbourne and Richmond coming in off stirring victories there is some genuine interest to be had watching these two teams battle it out.  Melbourne finally shook the duck last week (I’d like to remind you all that I tipped that) with some powerful flashes of brilliance, a lot by Kozi Pickett.  Richmond blew lossless Gold Coast away and then held on against their fast finish to secure an emotional victory.  Lots of talk not about the win but whether Balta should’ve played at all with an upcoming sentencing hearing for his off-field indiscretion.  Richmond are 4 losses on the trot for this particular fixture and while they were good last week, such a young side will struggle with consistency.  In the meantime, Melbourne will be looking to establish some consistency with two wins in a row and I think they’ll get the job done now that the shackles are off.  Melbourne by 28 points. 

Collingwood vs Essendon            MCG      Friday Afternoon

Another traditional match.  One that has now seen two draws in its history which dates back to 1995.  This used to be a match which I religiously went to in the late 90s / early 00s but it’s harder to get a ticket than to the Grand Final these days.  I think tickets for this sold out on April 26th last year!  Collingwood seem to have their game in check with their old wise heads bamboozling ladder leaders Brisbane last week.  Collingwood playing other teams remind me of my generation talking to Millennials, Gen Z or Alpha.  You see we’re old, we’re Wiley and we’re experienced whereas those generations don’t think we know nuthin.’  Sure, in a running race they’ll beat us, but we know life isn’t all about running.  Anyway, Essendon chalked up a win against West Coast, although they had to work for it a bit harder than they reckoned.  It was a costly victory too with Sam Drapers Achillies going bang (and they really do go bang!).  But there’s a lesson for Sam Drapers mum in all that…when dipping your child in the river Styx, don’t hold them by the heel.  Complete immersion is required.  It’s usually a good contest, but the Pies seem pretty well organised at the moment.  Collingwood by 31 points.

Fremantle vs Adelaide  Perth Stadium   Friday Night

The Dockers chucked the anchors on their rise last week with a loss against a Demons team that were getting a pizzling in the press.  It could be a chance they rue come seasons end and away wins will be vital.  Adelaide used their home ground advantage to brush aside GWS.  Had I known ahead of tipping that their spearhead wasn’t playing I would have picked Adelaide for sure.  The Crows also had injury concerns with Fogarty doing his sternoclavicular joint which is more human biology we all get to learn.  This week they play Fremantle for only the third time at Perth Stadium which is remarkable given its been in use since 2018!  I’m thinking Fremantle will bounce back after a stinging rebuke and Fogarty is only a 50/50 to play.  While his nickname is Foggo, I think this week he’ll be mist.  Fremantle by 13 points.

Saint Kilda vs Brisbane  Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

What a dismal evening it was for both of these teams last week.  The Saints were overrun by the fleet-footed Doggies and the prehistoric Pies out smarted the Lions.  Both teams will be smarting, and both teams will want a quick reversal.  One of Brisbane’s major problems last week was they only had a 5-day turn around into the Pies.  This week they get a nice cushy 9-day break to rest those weary youthful legs.  I think that could be the most telling factor along with Brisbane not losing to the Saints at Docklands since 2018.  Brisbane by 25 points.

Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne         Adelaide Oval   Saturday Twilight

This is another one of those fixture oddities with these two teams only ever having played each other twice at Adelaide Oval (since its regular use in 2014).  Another way to put it is that in all the games Port Adelaide have played at Adelaide Oval, only a bit over 1% of them have been against North Melbourne.  And for the record, Port Adelaide have won both of them.  Another way to put it is that North Melbourne has never beaten Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.  North Melbourne got beaten up badly by Carlton and Port won although would not be happy about conceding 5.8 in the last term…that could easily have been a loss.  Also, Aliir had a run in with an angry fan.  Football is an emotional roller-coaster for everyone sometimes.  Port will continue their winning ways I think.  Another way to put it is Port Adelaide by 43 points.

GWS vs Footscray            Manuka Oval     Saturday Night

This match is always a highlight in the calendar.  The teams genuinely don’t like each other and whether played at Manuka Oval or Mars Stadium it’s an emotional ride that some Sydney fans can really relate to.  GWS got a touch up from Adelaide and will welcome Jesse Hogan back with the aim to return to the winners list.  I think we all let out a collective sigh of relief when we heard that Darcy hadn’t done his ACL.  He seems like a ripping kid and plays the game like we want to see and would like more of that.  He will sadly be missing for quite a while, but it could have been worse.  At least they got The Bont back and he slotted in nicely.  Past history has Footscray winning this one most often (at Manuka) and they seem to have the wood over GWS in recent times.  History sends me one way and my gut tells me something else.  I guess I have to go with my gut.  I don’t facilitate its growth with rich sumptuous banquets and finely brewed beer just to ignore it.  GWS by 11 points.

Gold Coast vs Sydney    Carrara Sunday Afternoon

The unbeaten Gold Coast were beaten last week in a shock upset by Richmond.  In one fell swoop, this proved that it wasn’t Richmond that didn’t like going to Marvel Stadium, just Damien Hardwick.  Sydney also got beaten but had they kicked straight in the last quarter might have bagged a win.  Sydney looks a bit lost, and this can be quite common for a team if it gets smashed in the Grand Final previous.  It’s tough to build a case for Sydney playing at Carrara, although the teams haven’t played there for a couple of years.  The dangly bit in the back of your mind is “hang on…Gold Coast just lost to Richmond!”  I’m not sure if that’s enough evidence though and the double road trips that Gather throws up can be a fly in the ointment.  Gold Coast by 15 points.

Carlton vs Geelong         MCG      Sunday Afternoon

Fresh off a spirited victory over Hawthorn, Geelong has entered a tough run with Carlton now seemingly past their early season Malaise.  It used to be that you would knock someone into next week but with HIA assessments and Concussion protocols, like Gryan Miers, you actually get knocked two weeks into the future these days.  While in the future, perhaps he should grab the lotto numbers.  I see this as a toss of the coin game, and it really depends on the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Carlton.  You see, Jekyll, as we know, is pretty crap at footy…bit of a bookworm really.  Whereas Hyde is a brute, and you don’t want to run into him down a dark half forward flank one Sunday afternoon.  Geelong might be on a bit of a high after their stirring victory and this often comes with a lull afterwards. And Bailey Smith will be under strict instructions to keep his balls out of the other guys face…so to speak.  I can’t believe I’m doing this, I need my head examined.  Carlton by 12 points.  No, no, no.  I swore I wouldn’t.  Why are they so alluring?  They’ve only beaten West Coast and North Melbourne.  Don’t be so idiotic.  Geelong by 12 points.

Hawthorn vs West Coast              Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight

As mentioned previously, Hawthorn lost a nail-biter to Geelong.  Similarly to Patrick Voss last week, Conor Nash will be excluded for trying to perform a lobotomy without a license.  He actually came pretty close to success, just needed a sharper tool, I think.  That’s two losses in a row for Hawthorn and puts them back in the middle of the pack, but with their next few games against 18th, 15th and 17th, they should be back on track in no time.  However, their first assignment is 18th, a winless West Coast who showed considerably more spunk on the weekend and look a much improved side with straight-shooting Waterman up front and Wonderwall McGovern up back.  Even Harley looked a bit more interested.  As good as they were, it would take some kind of miracle to beat Hawthorn.  Maybe an opportunity for a West Coast player to put forward their papal candidacy.  Hawthorn by 45 points.

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