Round 10 Preview

Last Week           6/9           Season Total      58/80

In such a close round where many games were decided by a kick or less, I should be satisfied with getting 6 right?  However, I’m not, so have decided to take the Trump view of my tipping where I am always correct, regardless of any of these so-called facts you present.  In that spirit not only did I get 9 out of 9 and it was the greatest tipping ever by anyone ever, but I’d also like to point out that both India and Pakistan read my tipping last week and decided to de-escalate tensions on the back of it.  Not only that, but my preview also resolved a stalemate in the conclave, sorted out world hunger and disproved a whole bunch of facts were just fake news.  Not bad really, but not surprising, given how good I actually am.  I’ll get Putin and Netanyahu to read it this week and resolve those skirmishes too.

I went to the footy this weekend at Perth Stadium.  Maybe I’m getting old.  Maybe I’m getting grumpy, or maybe it’s just my raging tinnitus, but I found the pre-match very loud and very annoying.  The constant ground announcements going on at Volume 11, followed by the individual introduction of each team member (do the supporters not know who they are?) at volume 11 and then a Guitarist who continued to play after the first bounce of the ball…at volume 12… just made me want to go home, put the blanket over my knees and enjoy the footy on the TV with a crisp shiraz and handful of humbugs.  I’m wary of the guitarist, who plays a Queen song because Port Adelaide has already ruined Never Tear Us Apart and Brisbane / Charlie Cameron has ruined Take Me Home, Country Roads.  Please don’t ruin Queen for me too.  Why not play Tiptoe Through the Tulips?  No-one would care if you ruined that song.  That’s my rant for the week…just the kind of thing to bring about world peace.

The footy was close last weekend and the AFL showed their excitement by immediately telling us how close it was and that it hasn’t been that close since Round 10, 1970  In a hope that it will trick us all into believing the good old days have returned.  How do you weigh up how good it really was?  Here’s a comparison of the three closest rounds in recent history (if 1970 is recent) and the averages:

Round	Average Winners Score	Average Losers Score	Average Margin
1970, Round 10	96.66	86.33	9.33
2019, Round 4	82.33	68.33	14
2025, Round 9	87.55	77.22	10.33

Which round would you prefer to watch?  Not only were the scores higher in 1970, but 8 players kicked 5 goals or more including household names like Barry Round, Jesualenko, McKenna, Hudson, Rex Hunt, Wayne Richardson and some less than household names like Geoff Blethyn who kicked 7 and Alex Ruscuklic who kicked a round high 8 goals.  In 2019 only two players kicked 5 or more goals, Tom Lynch (6) and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (7).  Last week there were two players again, with Jamie Elliott (6) and Jesse Hogan (7).  However, I’ll admit it was much harder to watch in 1970 because all the games were played on the same day at the same time, The Winners hadn’t started on TV at that time, which was in Black and White anyway, making it impossible to know if you were watching Collingwood or North Melbourne.

The most interesting thing from the more recent close rounds is that Geelong lost by 4 points to GWS at Kardinia Park in 2025 and also by the same margin at the same ground in 2019, the beginning of GWS’s streak at that ground.  In some circles this is evidence enough of Aliens, Ghosts, Lizard People and Flat Earths!  The AFL will be hoping the trend continues…lets take a look and see if it might.

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn               Marrara (Darwin)             Thursday Night

I honestly don’t know why I picked Footscray last week.  As the game wore on, I remembered all the things I wrote last year about how good Gold Coast is up in Darwin and how I would never again tip against them up there.  It’s a senseless and emotional game, this tipping thing.  This should be a nice old ding dong battle with these teams occupying 3^rd and 4^th on the ladder.  There is some precedence which you can look up on this one.  They played here in 2022, and Gold Coast smashed the Hawks to the tune of 11 goals.  Hawthorn were a worse team back then.  But then Gold Coast were too.  So, what has changed for the worse?  Nuthin.  Gold Coast by 27 points.

Sydney vs Carlton            SCG        Friday Night

The Swans are having a tough time of it.  They couldn’t even beat Essendon last week who were taking a laborious 40 disposals per goal.  I guess it doesn’t help when Sydney is taking 43 per goal.  Carlton bounced back to form with a win against Saint Kilda.  While the score was close it seemed like Carlton were well in control of the match for a large portion of it.  For this match, on the surface you might think this could be difficult to pick.  But the reality is that the SCG is not a happy hunting ground for Carlton.  They’ve only won there a couple of times since the 1990’s.  Of course, statistics always has to deal with outliers…but not this time.  Sydney by 16 points.

Collingwood vs Adelaide             MCG      Saturday Afternoon

The Pies were strong against Fremantle (despite the stadium noise) but most importantly were super-efficient.  Whereas Essendon and Sydney were in 40’s of possessions per goal, Collingwood were 20 possessions per goal.  With a host of well-rested stars and a 9-day break they enter this game in good shape.  Adelaide was challenged but responded late to run away with the match.  A 5-point margin seems like a strange way to describe a run away victory but it was just a couple of late junk time goals that brought the margin in (ok, maybe it was a bit more tense than that).  They also go into this match in good shape and their host of big, powerful forwards will have to contend with what seems to be an effective defensive system that Collingwood has in place.  Collingwood have the psychological advantage in this one with a run of 9-straight wins on the trot between the two.  Look for them to extend it.  Collingwood by 11 points.

Port Adelaide vs Geelong            Adelaide Oval   Saturday Afternoon

They got close, but as mentioned it was too little too late for Port Adelaide.  Similarly for Geelong they were engaged in a tussle until the final siren with GWS.  Both teams ended on the wrong side of the ledger and would be keen to re-engage the winners list.  In the history for these two teams, it seems to be alternating between a win and loss when these teams meet on this ground.  If the pattern is to be followed, then this results in a Geelong loss.  I can’t really think of any reasons why this should change.  Rozee and Butters seem to have found form.  These are the games that Geelong likes to get up in, but not this time.  Port Adelaide by 21 points.

GWS vs Fremantle          Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

The Dockers turned around a very poor showing against Saint Kilda with a really good showing against Collingwood.  They dominated the stats in every category…even clangers but were unable to overcome the Pies system.  If they can capture the same dominance, they will go a long way towards winning this match.  GWS snapped a 3-game losing streak with a hearty win over Geelong down on the Oumuamua-shaped Kardinia Park.  I still feel that GWS is, so to speak, a sleeping giant and I’ve been on them since the beginning of time, although they’ve been pretty crap of late, but look much better when Hogan is being a hero.  GWS by 26 points.

Footscray vs Essendon  Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

I’ll get sick of writing about how close teams got last week soon.  Footscray were all but buried last week until a late fight back saw them fall just short.  On the flip side of that Essendon were so far in front last week that they couldn’t see Sydney in the rear view mirror at all.  Then all of a sudden Sydney were right amongst it like a motorbike that pops out from a side street.  Both teams like playing at Marvel.  Footscray likes it more.  On top of that, recently at least, they beat Essendon more often than not.  Footscray by 23 points.

Richmond vs North Melbourne MCG      Sunday Afternoon

It was a saving run-down tackle which someone described to me as a fully grown man pummeling a small child that saved the match for Richmond.  This one was a close game with 15 lead changes in total and the margin never getting out by more than a goal(ish) after quarter time.  North Melbourne participated in our first draw of the season and if not for a bit of lack of composure in those closing minutes would have taken the full serving of points on offer.  Both teams will be trying to put an extra match of space between themselves and the foot of the ladder.  Richmond is definitely a better side at the MCG but how much growth has North Melbourne seen in the last year?  All will be revealed.  North Melbourne by 22 points.

Brisbane vs Melbourne                Gabba   Sunday Afternoon

It was a big scare for Brisbane who would feel lucky slinking away with half the points.  They’d be bitterly disappointed with their effort last week so Melbourne should be worried.  Melbourne themselves were serviceable mostly, but fell away badly when the heat was on in the last quarter.  The heat will be on for more than one quarter this week.  Brisbane by 35 points.

West Coast vs Saint Kilda             Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

To quote a famous secret agent, “Missed it by that much.”  The Eagles failed to fall over the line last week and instead fell deeper into the quagmire, albeit some positive signs were seen in there.  Saint Kilda looked a lot worse when up against some opposition who were putting in some effort and they too will rue some missed chances.  At home this is a strong possibility for West Coast if they can stick to their task for four quarters.  Ross Lyon knows how to squeeze a team though.  He’ll take away their strength and sit heavily on their chests until they stop breathing.  Ross Lyon by 26 points.  Er, I mean Saint Kilda.