Round 9 Preview

 Last Week           8/9           Season Total      52/71

The election has been run and won, called about 20 seconds after the booths closed.  That’s great and we don’t have to worry about that for another three years except deal with any fall out.  The Libs may need a bit of help getting in touch with the common man if they want a better showing next time.  But like footy, there is always a redemption story.  What the Libs need is a Ross Lyon type to give them a good public dressing down and then they can come back next time and get the rising star nominee.  What a stroke of brilliance.  No Pope yet, but I see that Trump has put in an application.  I’d say he might be good as he could really show the church how to monetise religion, but I think they’ve got a pretty good handle on that already.

Willie Rioli has been sending out some regrettable text messages.  I for one understand the damage that Auto-correct can do sometimes.  Or there was that time I texted my wife something but my phone decided to send it to her Dad instead.  Geez that was a red-face moment.

Anyway, if you listen to the experts the ladder is both tightening up and the good teams are separating themselves at the same time.  A logical paradox in action, so lets see if we can cut through their…whats a nice word for crap?

Fremantle vs Collingwood          Perth Stadium   Thursday Night

Two contrasting games last week from these two combatants.  Freo are coming off a game that was so terrible that Trump himself couldn’t put a positive spin on it.  They have been pilloried in the media this week, their toughness questioned, their game plan, their effort, their health and even their voting preferences came under fire (the seat of Fremantle is still in limbo at the time of writing).  On the other hand, Collingwood came off a match which has been heralded as the greatest game of the Cenozoic era, but they still lost after Crisp butchered a shot after the siren extinguishing any chance of a fairytale finish to his record breaking streak that, using the same timescale, has lasted for all of the Holocene epoch.  So how do you place a meaningful bet on this match?  Collingwood would be keen not to drop another, but Freo will definitely come out with renewed vigour and fire in an attempt to consolidate the flat track bully moniker that has been assigned to them.  Collingwood are also coming off a 5-day break to get to this game and this is the kind of timeframe that doesn’t sit well with a team whose average age is measured in Era’s.  This game will come down to who Collingwood chooses to rest which at this stage looks like a long list.  If the mail is right, Collingwood could rest as many games of experience that is equal to the 20 most unexperienced players in Fremantle’s team last week!!  Anyway, because of the 5-day break and the resting of all that experience and the butt-kicking that Freo will get…Fremantle by 12 points.

Saint Kilda vs Carlton     MCG      Friday Night

On the other half of that deplorable match last week was Saint Kilda.  All I saw as the game descended into a steaming pile of poo was a very smug-looking Ross Lyon in the coach’s box wallowing in a farcical exercise that was going exactly to plan.  Carlton was brought crashing back to reality after a stinging loss to Adelaide on the plush lawn down on the Torrens.  If this game was at Marvel, I’d put my money on the Saints, but at the MCG I favour Carlton.  The last time they played there was well before COVID and Carlton got the chocolates that day.  For some added interest, Curnow is only 4 goals away from scoring his 300^th.  Carlton by 21 points.

Melbourne vs Hawthorn              MCG      Saturday Afternoon

Old guys are great.  I can say that confidently because I’m one of them.  Max Gawn showed us more evidence on that in a second half clinic last week to extend the West Coast misery and Hawthorn ground out an uneventful victory over Richmond.  If Melbourne wants to be taken seriously this year, they need to stand up now, but I think Hawthorn will be too strong for them.  Hawthorn by 35 points.

Essendon vs Sydney       Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

As was outlined in my missive last week, I was fully confident of an Essendon victory.  Sydney, however, bobbed up and won one I was not expecting.  I finally got around to updating my statistical leviathan this week, which was a big task given there were 9 weeks of data to add in and it has given me some great information about why some teams are doing as well as they are.  Sydney has had a very tough run, and things are about to get much easier for them from here.  Sydney by 22 points.

Gold Coast vs Footscray                                Marrara (Darwin)             Saturday Night

Another one of those teams that my statistical leviathan was very revealing on was Gold Coast.  Their meteoric rise has coincided with beating the bottom 4 teams.  But now they return to Darwin, their home away from home, for a stint up there which usually nets them a couple of good wins.  This is a trip to be wary about if you are Footscray.  And I’m not just talking about the footy match.  By all accounts they need to be careful if they are venturing out of the hotel.  But the dogs have been playing some good footy, so I find this one a tough match to pick.  Gold Coast beat Footscray up there in 2023…but only just.  I think they’re due a loss.  Footscray by 17 points.

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide           Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Speaking of threats, I think it’s time someone took the phone off Willie Rioli.  Or at least assign him an editor that he submits his digital releases to for approval first.  But now it’s time for a Showdown.  Port got handed their second 90+ point defeat on the weekend and Adelaide are going strength to strength.  I think last week covered the “It doesn’t matter where these teams are on the ladder” quote, but maybe there is something in this one with teams being 28 wins a piece and the lower ranked team winning 22 of the 56 matches.  I’ll spare you the deep analysis, although it’s a bit more interesting as sometimes the Showdown is late in the season when there might be a big difference between the number of wins.  I think the Adelaide forward line will be too strong.  Adelaide by 25 points,

Richmond vs West Coast              MCG      Sunday Afternoon

If this was at Perth Stadium, I think West Coast could chalk up their first win.  It’s not though, it’s at the MCG…and Balta can take the monitor off.  Richmond by 7 points.

Geelong vs GWS              Kardinia Park     Sunday Afternoon

It was a pulsating affair between Geelong and Collingwood last week with Geelong escaping a last gasp effort after Dangerfield bustled his way through traffic time and time again like a snow plough through fluffy snowdrift.  Geelong has been very good in the early season with just a couple of errors but a pretty tough run to open with.  The season opens up from here with one of the easier runs home so expect them to be floating around the top once again this year.  GWS were a lot of peoples pre-season favourites but seem to be faltering.  Luckily for them the season is ripe with turn around points and I’m sure a U-turn is somewhere up ahead.  Not this week though (although they have a serviceable 4-4 record at Kardinia Park which is way better than most).  Geelong by 11 points.

North Melbourne vs Brisbane   Bellerive Oval   Sunday Twilight

Marketing is just crazy sometimes.  I don’t get the renaming of a sporting field.  Especially one as auspicious as Bellerive Oval.  This match will be played at Ninja Stadium, brought to you by SharkNinja Appliances.  I’m picturing a boardroom with marketing executives trying to come up with a good name.  “Ninja’s are pretty cool.” Says one

“I bet a shark could beat a ninja,” retorts another.

“Why can’t we have both?” says the leader.  Applause rings out.

Ok, so in reality it was a merger between Shark Appliances and Ninja Appliances but I’m sure marketing was involved when they claimed their frying pans are coated in a substance heated to a temperature of 16,600C.  They didn’t consult the science department who would have told them that that’s 3 times the temperature of Sun and well past the boiling point of any of the materials used in construction.  Anyway, as a segue I’m not expecting this to be a hot contest, but I’ve been to Tassie and most of the time I’m looking for a source of heat about 3 times that of the Sun to warm my cockles.  Brisbane by 26 points.