Round 13 Preview

 Last Week           4/7           Season Total      72/105

The bye rounds stricken me with a kind of malaise that only a 7-match round can bring.  I used the extra time counting strawberries (another 17-strawberry punnet).  We should be careful in NOT bringing it to Big Farma’s attention because they will resolve it by making smaller punnets containing 8 or 10 strawberries only and charge us the same price.  Ideally, they give us a punnet of 12 strawberries as you can share that with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 or 12 people.  So versatile.  Anyway…I think I’ve covered the strawberry conspiracy enough.  I also used the extra time on the weekend to construct an outdoor weights station at home as I’ll be needing it for rehab after some ankle surgery in the coming weeks.  The fact that I constructed it with a beer in hand was a juxtaposition that was not lost on me.  The fact is the beer was entirely necessary due to the instructions being written in font size two, every piece of the 100 to 150 pieces was carefully labelled in the instruction booklet with a designated letter or number, and yet no physical piece had a letter or number on it!  When the difference between two screws is a few microns and yet critical in the result of it being either a functional workout station or a medieval torture device, the beer is required.  The beer helps me to come up with very creative adjectives to use to describe the manufacturer.  Anyway, it’s mostly built…only three more beers to finish it.  I’ll have more time this weekend as it is another bye round, albeit only one match shorter than standard.

Footscray vs Hawthorn Marvel Stadium               Thursday Night

The Hawks were miserable last week.  They stuck in it for the first quarter but then fell away badly, choosing not to tackle or be hard or anything representing competitiveness.  In the aftermath they were again pilloried in the media and for once, maybe the doomsaying footy analysts are right?  They’re now teetering on the edge of the top 8 and face a well-rested-coming-off-the-bye Footscray outfit who like to play hard unrelenting football.  The fact the match is at Marvel adds to Footscray’s favour.  With a follow-up game against Adelaide, Hawthorn need to stand up in this one otherwise they will most likely slip out of the top 8 by the time the byes are over.  It’s a tough mountain for them to climb now.  Footscray by 21 points.

Adelaide vs Brisbane     Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

This is definitely the match of the round.  Brisbane have been winning but not looking as terrifying as they were last year.  A loss to the ladder leaders and then a puzzling loss and a draw to lowly ranked teams has one questioning their commitment.  I mean, it’s early in the season so you don’t need to be hitting your straps now…but it won’t be early for long.  Adelaide meanwhile pooped all over the 2005 Sydney Premiership Party.  And all over Sydney’s own house!  I hate it when visitors do that.  Not only pooping freely but also running off a potty mouth saying they’re a rabble.  They need to be put in their place and maybe Brisbane is the team to do that.  And they can do it all over Adelaide’s own house.  And since I’m down this dark fecal path, have you ever tried cleaning up Lion poo!?  I mean their diet is essentially all protein.  That must be some pungent sticky stuff.  When you take them for a walk, you’d get them to do it on that jerk neighbours nice lawn and then scarper before anyone notices.  Anyway, I digest (guffaw)…there is some scientific data to look at here.  Brisbane have won 6 of their last 8 against Adelaide so perhaps they have their measure.  They don’t often win at Adelaide Oval, only winning 4 out of 14 matches there.  The last time these two met at that venue was a classic 90-90 draw so how do we choose the winner in this one?  We compare lines.  Forwards (Adelaide 1, Brisbane 0), Midfield (1, 1), Defence (1, 2), Centre (2, 2), Interchange (2.5, 2.5).  Therefore, this match comes down to the sub.  Choose wisely.  Adelaide by 12 points.

Richmond vs Sydney      MCG      Saturday Afternoon

I, like most of the world, completely wrote off Richmond last week and I didn’t even have the decency to give them more than a half-baked sentence in my preview.  But they were good.  If not for a bit of execution in front of goals and then a bit of composure in the last quarter, we would have all been proven wrong.  But we weren’t.  As for Sydney, unapologetically, I can say they were a rabble.  We have empathy for their football at the moment, but none for their real estate portfolios.  It’s common, in fact in 100% of cases my research shows, that if a team gets a flogging in the Grand Final, they have an unmitigated disaster the following season.  It hasn’t helped that their injuries have been long term and to prime movers.  The injury list is so bad that they even stopped updating the official list on their website.  Some, particularly Essendon supporters, would say “stiff shit.”  Me I wouldn’t go that far and put such a thing in this preview.  Not just because of the profanity but talking about poo again starts to make me sound obsessed.  So, this puts me in a troubling spot.  Richmond looks good, Balta is allowed to play, and Sydney might just wanna pack up for the year and focus on a draft pick that compliments their academy pick.  I’m going to err on the side of caution, but here’s an upset chance if you need to pick up a few places in the tipping.  Sydney by 18 points.

Geelong vs Gold Coast  Kardinia Park     Saturday Afternoon

I think gone are the days you can just waltz over West to play West Coast and expect to bring 4 points back with you.  More on that later though.  Geelong was out-played for large patches and the margin flattered them but 4 points they have nonetheless and now roll into Gold Coast at home.  The Suns also had a brief period of increased sunspot activity and were unable to shine as brightly as they have been.  It’s hard to use history as a basis for any tips when it comes to Gold Coast as their history seems to be divided into ‘Before this Season’ and ‘This Season’ categories.  But historically they have never won down at the Cattery and this becomes the clash of the Nepo baby versus the Overpaid baby.  Which type of money is best?  The type that just comes to you because of who you are or the type that comes to you in a small paper bag without a receipt? Me, I don’t care, I’d accept any type.  Geelong by 34 points.

GWS vs Port Adelaide   Manuka Oval     Saturday Night

I’m a big fan of Callan Ward and I don’t think I’m alone in that sentiment.  He’s a nice guy, a top bloke and at 34 a knee reconstruction and a year off football might just be a bridge too far.  I’m not expecting any immediate announcements early in the week, but after some consultation with surgeons and club officials I’m expecting time to be called on his career soon.  It was hard to watch, not just the slow motion vision of his knee giving way (I reckon you could see the ligament snap) but the emotional toll afterwards and then the stirring three quarter time speech which awakened something inside his teammates to get up over a dominant Richmond.  Good Luck Callan.  Port Adelaide are coming off a much needed bye where they need to be able to separate themselves from the poor start of the season to this season going forward.  They’ve only won once up at Manuka and that was when GWS was just a baby (the medical term for a giant baby is foetal macrosomia in case you are interested).  Anyway, the Giants are all grown up now.  GWS by 26 points.

North Melbourne vs West Coast              Hands Oval (Bunbury, WA)          Sunday Afternoon

What makes this interesting is this will be played at Hands Oval, which is down in a sleepy little hollow called Bunbury.  Started as a military base, Bunbury became a key port to get the beautiful jarrah timber out of its native environment and around to houses all over the world, but now it will be the battle of the bottom of the heap.  I have it on good authority that once the lines are marked this will be the longest oval ever used by the AFL.  Something like 174m.  How does this help pick a winner?  It doesn’t.  West Coast are progressing up the improvement curve which goes 1. Be dangerous at home, 2. Win at Home, 3. Win Away from Home, 4. Win Premiership.  They are now working their way to Step 1.  North Melbourne is also working towards step 1, and I don’t know who’s leading.  All I know is after hosing down during the week, I expect the weather to be nice and Bunbury is a nice spot to go and watch a game of footy.  However, it’s also good to watch on TV with a smooth Merlot.  This is the start of a two-week trip to WA by North Melbourne.  North Melbourne by 10 points.

Carlton vs Essendon       MCG      Sunday Night

Two classic rivals who have been languishing at mid-ladder all year.  To steal a phrase, they both look to be a rabble this season with no help from injuries either.  Unlike Bunbury, they’ll be expecting a decent amount of winter rain and semi-Antarctic conditions.  It will be tough to draw a crowd there given the weather and state of the two teams fortunes, but someone has to win.  Just based on less injuries, I’ll say Carlton by 22 points.

Melbourne vs Collingwood        MCG      Monday Afternoon

Another classic two rivals in the annual Big Freeze, Fight MND match.  Going down a slide into an ice bath in ambient 10C temperatures is not my idea of a good time, but if it helps raise awareness for a blight like MND then it’s a must.  Melbourne took a stumble on their upward trajectory last week against St Kilda and Collingwood continue to roll on against all commers dispatching Hawthorn with their much touted system.  I can’t really give Melbourne a chance here and will be tipping Collingwood for the foreseeable future unless given a reason not to.  So, if you’re a Melbourne Supporter, grab an MND beanie, go and watch the sliding and enjoy the day regardless.  Collingwood by 32 points.

Byes

Sorry to say but Byes bring out the worst in me.
A fact that, if you read on, you will plainly see.
The next 4 weeks are a terrible time.
As these teams seasons are condensed in rhyme.

Saint Kilda
A season that’s been peppered with many ups and downs
One week they look the best and the next a bunch of clowns
Ross has them at the point where they could win…maybe
Then he goes and calls the Suns a big fat Nepo Baby

But we love Ross, we really do, he makes all go wild
Especially when he calls a club a rich, jerk, lazy child
Their best game was when he out-witted a yucky Freo Dockers
Then next week were soundly beaten by those icky Carlton shockers

Fremantle
Challenged during the season they were labelled inconsistent
But then knuckled down to prove themselves tenacious and persistent
Distracting talk of Jackson’s future and his love risks being forlorn
Then he turns a game on his own, reminiscent of Shane Warne

Now their season looks a treat with many games at home
A concession the AFL hasn’t afforded since the fall of Rome
Consistency is the key, and they become the masters of their future
And trust that Luke Jackson’s girl remains a West Aussie based smoocher.