Round 21 Preview

 Last Week           9/9          Season Total      122/171

Firstly, credit where credit is due.  I lambasted Kayo earlier in the year for their annoying interface and ability to make me have to scroll through hours of footage to get to the point I was last at.  Well, maybe someone out there reads this missive as they have now introduced a “Resume” option.  Of course, like a farmer complaining about not getting enough rain and then complaining that they have too much rain when the rains does arrive, I can say I hate the Resume function.  I’ve gotten so used to having no resume capability that now I have it, it confounds me and gets in the way of my live sport digestion.

Not that it mattered on the weekend just gone.  I didn’t watch a second of the footy during the weekend and looking at the scores, I doubt I missed much at all.  I watched a replay of the final 2 minutes of the St. Kilda vs Melbourne drama, which took 5 minutes(?) and I’m satisfied that I’ve seen all there is to see.  On the whole, and I’m sure I speak for the entire population of the world except St Kilda supporters…Worst Round Ever!  With that rubbish round gone, perhaps this is the round to take your kids to the footy.  It’s free for them this week.  As long as you meet the 20 impossible conditions the AFL lays out.

As the season is ended for about 9 teams, the media waves are filling more and more with trade discussions, contract questions and surgery news.  Let’s try and sift through it all and find another 9 winners, just like last week. 

Footscray vs GWS            Marvel Stadium               Thursday Night

These are always great matches to watch.  Both teams came off crushing victories last week and both hit the accelerator in the second half.  GWS are peaking at the right time and Footscray are still looking for that elusive top 8 scalp to prove they have some credentials, next year if not this year.  I like watching these two teams have a crack at each other.  Toby might be missing after not only fat shaming Tom Papley but being a bit rough.  He might get a bit of extra time off too once the AFL see his little love tap to the genitals.  They don’t often go at it in the closed roof of Marvel Stadium.  It’s been three years since they met here and most often in the past it has gone Footscrays way.  I think GWS have the ability to out-tough Footscray though.  GWS by 17 points.

Adelaide vs Hawthorn  Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

Two more teams vying for positions inside the top 8.  Adelaide to secure top spot and Hawthorn just to keep themselves in the race.  Both teams had great victories last week over weaker opposition so it will be interesting to see how the two shape up against each other.  Adelaide has a softer run home and are all but assured to finish top of the ladder.  Could this be a poisoned chalice though?  The problem with being an interstate side comes down to who they would play in the Grand Final.  Two easy pickings in Home Finals gets you there, but then when you look at the Grand Final, which is always played at the MCG and the odds can turn.  Of course, if you’re playing another interstate side, then guaranteed that an interstate side will walk away with the cup.  If you’re playing a Melbourne team, the odds are not so crash hot.  Going back to the start of the AFL (1990), when facing a Victorian team, an interstate team has only lifted the cup 9 out of 21 occasions (43%).  But if you look more recently, say, since Gold Coast/GWS entered the competition, the record is worse, with the interstate club only taking the chocolates 2 out of 10 tries.  That’s only a 20% chance of Adelaide winning if they have to face a Victorian club.  Lucky for them there’s not many of them in the top 8.  An interesting side trip this was, but Adelaide by 22 points.

Melbourne vs West Coast           Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

The Demons can say that they participated in the greatest ever 4^th quarter comeback in history.  That’s certainly something to note.  How they cocked that one up, no one really knows.  The analysts certainly tell you they you know, but not really.  Milera was something else.  As I said, I watched the 5 minute long, “last 2 minutes” video and even though I knew the result I could quite understand how they were going to do it.  When he kicked the second last goal there was only 8 seconds left.  I still didn’t understand.  Then it happened!  Anyway, there is a small chance at redemption this week with a match against West Coast who will be Harleyless for the rest of the season.  He has a syndesmosis injury so he can join me walking the streets of Perth in a Moon Boot and we can discuss the astronomical price he is asking for.  Melbourne by 18 points.

Gold Coast vs Richmond               Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon

After a crushing defeat at the hands of Adelaide, Gold Coast turned it around and dished one out to their old nemesis in Brisbane.  Meanwhile Richmond was beaten by their even older nemesis in Collingwood.  It seems that this is the year that Gold Coast will not be denied their entry into the finals and finally be included as one of the cool kids.  Gold Coast by 65 points.

Sydney vs Essendon       SCG        Saturday Afternoon

Is the dream finally over for Sydney?  I think so.  The couple of femtometres the door was ajar last week have probably evaporated.  I’m not certain as I haven’t done any ladder predicting, but I’m officially calling it.  Time to get the stars in cotton wool or off for their surgical vacations.  Essendon has been doing that for weeks now.  Sydney by 37 points.

Collingwood vs Brisbane              MCG      Saturday Night

A proverbial clash of titans.  Collingwood needs this win to keep top spot on the ladder, but I’m not sure they want the pressure that comes with that.  The Pies have been a bit hit and miss of late, but smart money says this is because Fly whips them extra hard on the training track to get them in prime fitness for the run home and finals.  Coming out of that phase now might mean they can stick a fork in Brisbane’s top4 sausage and make it go Bang!  I feel like the Pies have been foxing a little (and it hasn’t helped that they have kicked 32 goals 42 in the last 3 weeks.  Straighter kicking and being a bit fresher might help them, but they are up against a formidable opponent who would like nothing more than putting a dent in their top 4 aspirations and adding weight to their own at the same time.  I think this will be a battle of midfields and team defence.  Collingwood by 13 points.

Saint Kilda vs North Melbourne                               Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

It’s always good to be on the positive side of a win.  How do you think all those St. Kilda supports who left at three quarter time feel?  Probably just as smug as the ones who stayed.  North Melbourne on the other hand threw up the kind of performance that has experts questioning it they should even exist as a team in this competition?  Break ‘em up and share all those 1^st draft picks around.  The competition would be great then…wouldn’t it?  Saint Kilda by 35 points.

Geelong vs Port Adelaide            Kardinia Park     Sunday Afternoon

The difference in margins between these two teams last week was 199 points.  But it’s important to remember as Port Adelaide limp to a fizzled out Hinkley sign off, that they won their last trip to Kardinia Park.  But not this time.  The Geelong crowd can perhaps tip their hat to a former old boy…if any of their memories stretch back that far.  Geelong by 54 points.

Fremantle vs Carlton     Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

The Dockers look unstoppable at the moment, and another home game against a team who just don’t seem to care anymore should just about have them knocking on the door of the top 4.  That’s a tough place to break into though and the Dockers should bank these wins with a tricky triumvirate of games to finish off the season.  Carlton should turn their attention to retaining stars like De Koning and generate a more positive feeling around the club.  It’s a deep dark hole in there.  It’s rumored that even Silvagni is considering joining the Pies, who put an offer on the table for him.  That would be like cats living with dogs, flies living with spiders or Trump becoming a Democrat being a fair and honest golfer.  Fremantle by 28 points.