Round 23 Preview

Last Week           8/9           Season Total      137/189

Every now and then the season throws up some fodder for us preview writers sink our teeth into.  This week it is the announcement that Snoop Dogg will be headlining the AFL entertainment on Grand Final Day.  I’m not really familiar with his work but I did some snooping and here are some things I learned about the Dogg.  His real name is Calvin Cordozar Broadus Jr (does that mean he qualifies as a Broady Boy.  He looks like he could have been raising hell in Broadmeadows).  He converted to Rastafarian and also goes by the alias Snoop Lion.  Snoop confessed once that he was a pimp, and using some colourful language bragged about how good he was at it.  He has a rap sheet that is very long.  His album list is a fun read including great works like Doggystyle, Tha Doggfather, Doggumentary and Missionary Style.  But he’s allegedly a very good entertainer so hopefully he lives up to the hype.  I’m sure he’ll be better than Meatloaf but could never be as good as Angry Anderson and Rob de Castella in a batmobile.

Anyway, how is everyone going with their tipping?  There are only 2 rounds of the regular season to go, and this week has thrown up a particularly tricky set of games which either help you leapfrog the leader or make the deficit worse.  It might even be worth watching some of them, if I wasn’t otherwise engaged. Some bold choices are necessary.  With all the top 8 except Adelaide still mathematical possibilities to miss finals altogether, the last two rounds do hold a bit of interest.

Oooh, A Friday Night double-header…Oh you Fixture-scheduling rascals. 

Essendon vs St Kilda      Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

Firstly, Dylan Shiel will be taking a break after pushing his opponent into his teammate and causing him to go “full scorpion.”  This is probably ok with Essendon though as the last thing Essendon wants is to field any players who might get injured.  St Kilda are looking for a positive finish to the season to try to make the place look more attractive to De Koning while also making Milera feel like the place has a nice feel to it.  Word on the street is that St. Kilda’s offer to Harley Reid might be the biggest at the dinner table.  Now there’s three names you could build a premiership around.  Let’s stay in the present though.  Still too many injuries for Essendon.  St Kilda by 25 points.

Fremantle vs Brisbane  Perth Stadium   Friday Night

It was Boak last week and this week it is Fyfe’s turn to call time on his career.  Currently at 245 games (320 Victorian-based equivalent) his timing to pull the pin is one of self sacrifice.  Fremantle probably need to win both this one and the one next week to guarantee the finals and this could be the extra inspiration that’s needed.  Strange to think this 2-time Brownlow medalist went pick 20 in the 2009 Draft.  He wasn’t even Freo’s first pick with them taking Morabito at #4.  Most of the players taken ahead of him were so-so players, a few good ones and one standout who gets equal billing, Dustin Martin.  You can’t deny you’d empty your pocket to go and watch a match with those two running around in their prime.  2009 was a pretty good draft which included Max Gawn at #34.  Anyway, I digress, Nat Fyfe, we salute you and your two Brownlows. 

Brisbane come off a hot mess of a loss to Sydney which I hinted at in my preview last week but failed to commit to.  This is what makes the game interesting.  Brisbane will be desperate not to have to rely on the final round match against a white hot Hawthorn to book their place in the finals but the trip to Perth is long and arduous and they only have a 50:50 record against Fremantle at that ground.  The wrinkle in this one is that between these two, the game at Perth Stadium is ALWAYS played on a Sunday afternoon and never under the bright Friday night lights.  If night games interest you, Fremantle has only lost at Perth Stadium under lights to Collingwood this year.  If patterns are your thing, at this ground, between these two clubs, Brisbane has gone W, L, W, L, W, L…what a conundrum!?  Time to put my balls on the block, Brisbane by 3 points.

Gold Coast vs GWS         Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon

Just when you thought the tough picks were out of the way, we get this game between two known expansionists.  The AFL will be licking their lips with the prospect of their two love children in the finals, but to get there they both probably need to win this one.  That’s not entirely true with GWS getting St Kilda the following week and Gold Coast playing Port and a bonus match against Essendon.  Gold Coast have only lost once at Carrara this year and their midfield beasts of Rowell (which rhymes with Cow, and he eats grass, how ‘bout that!) and Anderson (which rhymes with Panda fun) have the team humming.  But not to be out-expansioned, GWS are a strong opponent, stacked with talent who Gold Coast have only beaten once in 10 years.  But is Gold Coast a better, more complete side now?  This is the week we will find out.  I think GWS are in a more precarious position and will be more desperate.  GWS by 3 points.

Carlton vs Port Adelaide              Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

This is another game that seems to be tough to pick.  Port Adelaide would still like to get one more win for heroic leader Boak before he draws the final curtain and this is perhaps their best chance with Gold Coast in the final round (although Gold Coast have never won at Adelaide Oval).  Maybe they want to win one more for Hinkley too, but I’m not so sure about that.  Do any of them need to make a good impression on Carr for next year?  Butters has had a tenuous link drawn to Collingwood (along with almost every other player in contract limbo in the click-bait world we live in) and maybe this plays on the minds of some of the Port players.  Carlton have put a couple of players in mothballs in the last few weeks (something I should have done with one my woolen jumpers I discovered this week) and it’s very tough to see them win this one without Curnow.  Port Adelaide by 15 points.

Hawthorn vs Melbourne              MCG      Saturday Afternoon

The Hawks did a real number on the Pies last week, but it increasingly seems that’s an easy thing to do of late.  It was what the doctor ordered though and kept them in the hunt for Finals.  They probably still need to win both of their last two matches to guarantee a spot.  With a last round trip to the Gabba this one is not negotiable.  They easily swept aside Melbourne earlier in the year and The Demons are such a rabble at the moment that they probably just want to exit the season as quickly as possible rather than draw this torture out.  Then the off-field shenanigans can begin.  Hawthorn by 36 points.

Adelaide vs Collingwood             Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Will the real Collingwood please stand up?  All their psychological games with player management have been for nought when they’ve struggled to get a full team on the park anyway.  Or has it?  Is this the inspired move that they have made and will now deliver a sweeping Coup de Grace to the competition?  With the exception of Jeremy Howe who is still wondering what day of the week it is, for the first time in weeks they have a (almost) full list to choose from.  Barring any injuries this week or next, they’ll have a full and healthy list to attack the finals.  Assuming they make it.  Losing to Adelaide this week would put their participation in the finals on a knifes edge and the way they played last week doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.  The only redeeming shred of statistics you could use to justify picking Collingwood is that they haven’t lost at Adelaide Oval since 2017.  In fact, they have 10 wins on the trot there so obviously like the place.  But all runs come to an end and Adelaide is a formidable opponent.  They had a down match last week but still managed to scrape home against a determined West Coast.  The danger for Adelaide is given they have all but secured top spot (they play North Melbourne next week), they might go into body preservation mode and this small drop in intensity is all it would take for Collingwood to capitalise.  Added bonus is Collingwood get a 9 day break and Adelaide only gets 6.  This match will be closer than you think.  Adelaide by 10 points.

North Melbourne vs Richmond Bellerive Oval   Sunday Afternoon

This game holds interest for fans only and will be a celebration for Hobart locals.  Guaranteed it will be cold, raining and windy enough to bring the ‘feels like’ temperature down just far enough to curl yourself into a tight ball.  If you have no plans, take the golf clubs down and play a round at Barnbougle on the Saturday before trekking down to Hobart to take in the match.  It’s still a tough one to pick though.  North Melbourne by 3 points.

Sydney vs Geelong         SCG        Sunday Afternoon

I told you so.  In fact, I told myself so too.  I said Sydney wouldn’t take missing the finals lying down and if my balls weren’t busy on the block I should have had the conviction to stick with that.  Speaking of balls and taking things lying down, one thing Sydney does take is Squirrel Grips.  It was a noble attempt at defending his actions by saying he was trying to steady himself from falling, but it didn’t work.  Given it was Nick Blakey he should have brought in a herpetologist to describe the methodology for checking the sex of a lizard.  Geelong don’t have a fantastic record at the SCG and Sydney are on a mission to prove that they shouldn’t be just a byline in the story of this season.  It’s a high risk match for Geelong.  Sydney by 3 points.

Footscray vs West Coast               Marvel Stadium               Sunday Twilight

The final match of the round sees West Coast travel over to Marvel to play Footscray.  This is likely a further percentage booster for Footscray although West Coast showed a bit of pluckiness last week.  Can they sustain it? Nup.  Footscray by 85 points.