Round 24 Preview

 Last Week           7/9           Season Total      144/198

It was an action packed week of footy last week with the trailing news being about Milera’s contract, Sheezels 54 and Rankine’s brain fart.

We enter the final week of regular footy for 10 teams who must decide to play for pride or play for draft picks.  For the rest, it is all about equations.  Who do you play, do you win or lose and how much do you win or lose by are all factors that will affect ladder position with none of the top 8 sureties for any given spot.  We also have the extra match to preview this week so let’s dive in. 

Essendon vs Carlton       MCG      Thursday Night

Traditional Rivals will meet on the Thursday Night for a game that not many want to see.  With Essendon playing mostly kids, maybe Carlton should do the same and give us all a look at the future.  Or at least give Graeme Wright a look at his future.  It would be an exciting time for anyone getting their debut, but both teams would want a quick exit, albeit Essendon have a makeup exam to do next week.  Carlton by 23 points.

Collingwood vs Melbourne        MCG      Friday Night

The Pies looked a bit stronger last week against Adelaide but were eventually flummoxed by a flooded forward line and fell agonizingly short.  It didn’t help that for the first time in the clubs history, the umpires finally let Adelaide have all the good breaks.  Maybe that will put an end to their grumbles.  Collingwood will welcome Jeremy Howe back this week and the equation for them is simple.  Lose and they will definitely not retain their top 4 spot.  Win and they could finish as high as third but must also win by a larger margin than Gold Coast’s combined two matches (assuming they win both).  I’m sure there are other variables there.  Melbourne might be out for some pride, so this is not a game for Collingwood to take lightly.  But some players in Melbourne seem a bit dissatisfied and they might have already checked out, thinking about what the next club they play for will be like?  Collingwood by 15 points.

Port Adelaide vs Gold Coast       Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

The time has finally come for Ken Hinkley.  This will be his last game as coach of this club, and he will also get chaired off with Travis Boak who is also playing his last game.  This combined emotional load along with the lingering doubt in Gold Coast minds having never won at this ground means an upset might be on the cards.  Gold Coast needs to save some energy for their 2^nd match of the round later on Wednesday.  I’m actually liking Port on this one.  Port Adelaide by 12 points.

North Melbourne vs Adelaide   Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

What more can be said?  It’s been a less than ideal week for Adelaide after Rankine raised the ire of all by uttering a slur that should not be uttered.  I’m old enough to remember a time when we used to call all our mates that word, but I also remember we knew it wasn’t quite right, exclaiming we were really calling them a bundle of sticks when challenged.  But the English language is constantly evolving, and I’ll admit it’s not a word that’s come up in my vocabulary in the last 35 years.  Except that time, I scored 39 points with it on a triple word score in scrabble.  Luckily the dictionary still refers to it as a bundle of sticks.  Maybe in the future we will look back and think our actions were right…or maybe they were wrong, but for now, Rankine’s verbal barrage will cost him a go at The Finals and potentially his team a lot more.  I’ll admit though that the legal wrangling and arguments presented by Adelaide, including Finals should be worth more than regular games and “Snoop Dogg says it” don’t really show a team that is contrite about the actions and they probably should just say, they messed up, take their whack and put it behind them before it fully derails their season.  I thought they learned that lesson from the camp.  The more stuff they come up with, the more the media will pound them, and the controversy could continue through finals if they’re not careful.  Anyway, there is a match on isn’t there?  North Melbourne will be playing and hoping that Sheezel brings his own ball again.  I’m surprised the umpires didn’t pick up on it last week as I could clearly see that Sheezels ball was one of those ones you use to kick out on the road.  You, know how it loses all its outer skin?  Adelaide by 11 points.

Richmond vs Geelong   MCG      Saturday Afternoon

I think Richmond has had a pretty good year.  Expectations were low but they have managed to put together a handful of wins and show a bit for the future at the same time.  Geelong are perennial finalists and after an absolute gift of a back end to the season they should slot themselves into second on the ladder to finish things off and guarantee two home finals that they will play away from their home.  Being at the MCG it is a bit friendlier for Richmond, but then friendships will only get you so far.  Geelong by 45 points.

West Coast vs Sydney    Perth Stadium   Saturday Night

It certainly wasn’t a forward step for West Coast this year.  They were already about as far away as you could possibly be too so I can’t call it a backward step either.  West Coast took an adjacent step this year.  At least they broke in a new coach and will have a bit of draft capital to try and get the balance of experience and youth right to start the long climb.  A few old guard either retired by choice, retired by advice or have decided to go to a different club because the coffee is better there and the amount of travel is less.  Later, when Oscar Allen finds he’s a handful of status credits short of lifetime platinum, he might just regret that.  Sydney also broke in a new coach this year and after a slew of injuries, nearly got things back on track but it was too late by then.  Both will turn their attention to next year as soon as the final siren goes.  Sydney by 31 points.

GWS vs Saint Kilda         Showgrounds    Sunday Afternoon

This is the last match of the year for Saint Kilda, but they can be satisfied that they had a major accomplishment this year with the signing of Wanganeen-Milera.  GWS will be marching on to finals…probably.  Unless Saint Kilda does something foolish.  GWS by 17 points.

Footscray vs Fremantle                 Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

This is the match we will all be tuning in for this week.  This is the match who decides who is in and who is OUT of the finals.  Well, unless Gold Coast REALLY screw it up.  Or if Hawthorn screw it up.  Every equation seems to have many variables.  If we analyse this a little, it doesn’t bode well for Fremantle.  They’ve lost their last couple at Docklands and by 10-goal margins.  They haven’t beaten Footscray there for a few years.  But what do you do when you have nothing to lose?  Freo’s midfield is one of the best, led by clearance machine Sarong.  Freo has a forward line that will trouble Footscray with its plethora of giants and big Jackson floating in.  Maybe Freo can actually do it?  But then Footscray has nothing to lose either and their midfield is also stacked with talent.  They might not have a lot of tall forwards, but a lot of their midfielders get through there and hit the scoreboard.  The Fremantle defence is organised but will need to be on their game to handle Naughton and Darcy, who kicked 5 goals the last time they met.  There are so many tantalizing match ups and this is worth paying the admission price or nestling into the couch with a cold one.  I’d pick a draw but that won’t do either of these teams any good.  Footscray by 11 points.

Brisbane vs Hawthorn   Gabba   Sunday Twilight

If the main course wasn’t filling enough, there’s always dessert.  Brisbane was stunning last week in their dismantling of Fremantle and set their premiership credentials out for all to see.  The Hawks have been rock solid in the last few weeks but face a stern test against the premiership fancies.  They have what it takes to win but entering the territory of the lion is fraught with danger.  They don’t have a great record in recent years at the Gabba and that might just be the deciding factor.  I still assert that Brisbane is vulnerable.  Brisbane by 17 points.

Gold Coast vs Essendon                                Carrara                                 Wednesday Night

Somehow, I recall previewing this match before.  Yes, this is the match we didn’t get in the Opening Round.  I went back and looked at what I wrote back in Round 0, and it still holds true.  Gold Coast are still the AFL’s special project team, and they’d like to see them win and Essendon is still in a world of hurt.  I expect the result to be the same as I predicted back then.  Gold Coast want to cement their place in their first final series and Essendon just want some clear air to get on top of their injury list.  Gold Coast by 31 points.