2025 Finals Week 2 AFL Preview - Semi Finals

 Finals Week       0/4          Finals Total         0/4

I got nothing right last week.  Zero out of four tips, really puts my finals tipping in a shambles which I won’t be able to recover from.  Creates a mockery of the 11-years of statistics I’ve been compiling just to get these games right.  How embarrassing.  It makes me wonder why I’ve spent, on average, 6 hours a week, compiling and analysing statistics like this.  Hopefully it is all data contributing to the growth and eventual dominance of our future AI overlords.

As mentioned, I didn’t get to watch any of the footy as it was played, well, maybe half a match, but I would like to iterate what I was saying about how boring it is and that a game’s result is essentially decided in a single 8-10 minute burst.

The other games are a little more complicated.  They have bursts which determined the game but then the opponents had bursts to pull them back.  But by then, they had spent all their petrol tickets to get it back to an even keel and they eventually fell away anyway.  But that may have added a level of excitement.

What it means is it’s easy to watch the replays as I only have to watch a few minutes and I’ve seen all that I need to see.

While I’m coming up with good ideas, I spent some time solving Formula 1.  There are 10x F1 teams and around 24 races per year.  To make it more exciting, each driver should have to drive for each team at least twice in a season.  This means that:

a)      The drivers are uncoupled from the cars so the drivers championship is a greater test of drivers skill.

b)      The constructors championship doesn’t rely so much on a car being finely tuned to a driver but producing either a consistent platform or a teams ability to constantly pivot and accommodate different driver behaviors.

As far as money goes, the constructor teams could pay more money to drivers to try and get them to drive their vehicles on particular tracks that could maximise their points.  The strategies and/or tactics would be exciting.

Perhaps the AFL could trial that too.  Have the top echelon of players, Bont, Daicos, Rowell, etc have to play a minimum number of games for each team in a season.  Then you might not have such a big gulf between the good teams and the bad teams.

Of course, these ideas rely on a purely altruistic society free of the influence of greed, gambling and other vices.  My estimate puts the human race about 17,000 years from any such progress.  I quote John Lennon, “Imagine no possessions, I wonder if you can?”  It’s a good point there, I mean he was The Walrus.  I could be the Walrus, but I’d still have to tip winners.

Ok, enough dreaming.  There is more footy on as we crank up the Semi Finals.

Adelaide vs Hawthorn  Adelaide Oval   Friday Night

After dominating the home and away season and absconding with the minor premiership, Adelaide was reminded that Finals Footy is a step up in pressure and the ability to straight-line the ball is paramount if you want to get anywhere.  Of course, the loss now opens the door for a fairytale return for Izak Rankine.  However, it might be an unpopular fairytale, something like Grimms “The Robber Bridegroom.”  Hawthorn was just the opposite, taking their chances and applying elite levels of pressure to put themselves in front of GWS.  To the Giants credit, they pulled it back but ran out of gas and were headed at the end.

So, who wins this one?  If Adelaide goes out in straight sets, South Australia might be put under quarantine to avoid any uncomfortable conversations over the off-season.  It would also mean a late start to Rankine’s 2026 campaign.  Just like last week, all of the pressure is on Adelaide for that very reason.  Hawthorn is not expected to win and even if they did, most would agree (not Hawthorn though) that they had a good year, so they don’t really have anything to lose.

Hawthorn’s back line will stack up pretty well to Adelaide’s triumvirate of Terror up forward.  But I think that Adelaide backline might be organised a bit better this week against Hawthorns mobile and capable forwards.  The centre is where the job will get done.  Both teams don’t have many big names in there.  Outside of Dawson, neither team had anyone named through the middle of the ground in the All Australian team.  Hawthorn has a lot of negative playing midfielders, but I don’t see any champions (aside from the afore mentioned Dawson) that require a negative role on them.

It's a tough choice and I don’t know where the chips will fall.  For the winner the prize is a meeting with Geelong at the MCG the following week and the loser will be drinking on Monday at either the Exeter in Adelaide or the Auburn in Hawthorn…maybe.  The last time these two took to this stage was only a month ago and Rankine was a big contributor to a pretty narrow win by the Crows.  If you can shut down Gunston and silence the brat pack, I don’t think Hawthorn can find enough scoring opportunities.  Adelaide by 12 points.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast Gabba   Saturday Night

There was entirely too much talk about the umpire paying terrible free kicks to Rayner and not enough talk about the character of the man that is Rayner who would first, intimidate the umpire into keeping an eye on him and then take two dives that both Greg Louganis and Marlon Brando would be proud of.  As a coach and as the AFL what do you do about that?  On the one hand, the game was pretty much gone at that time and Brisbane needed something to try and hold on so both the Coach would be happy and the AFL would be happy that the game retained some level of interest for a little while longer.  But on the other hand, that is exactly the kind of crap that no-one wants to see, and Rayner should be resoundingly chastised, brow beaten, admonished and then publicly embarrassed.  If he does it again, he should be put in stocks in Queen Street Mall so passers by can pitch cabbages at him or worse, tickle his feet.

It was really the only talking point to come out of the game.  Other than Neale’s season being over after a calf injury but they played the end of the year without him anyway and got the wins.  Brisbane have been scraping by all season and now look a little banged up and out of their depth in this finals series.  What they really need is a cross-town rival or something to spice up their campaign…oh goody!

Gold Coast had a miraculous win over Fremantle who had put together a solid year only to disappoint their fans again, who by now are so used to it that the season exit is planned into their calendar at the start of each year.  Rowell was immense and a more popular fairytale came off the boot of David Swallow who (possibly) extended his career while putting the final stamp on Fyfe’s in a single kick.

The Suns were, pardon the pun, red hot and if they play like that again will likely roll Brisbane who are at risk of a straight sets exit.  A few of the Lions players were down on their normally reliable output and we expect more from them this week.  Does the pressure of a cut throat final sit a little better with Gold Coast now or could the moment get to them?  I can’t see a case for big forwards taking this match away from any team and we might be in for a delightful display of small forward wizardry.  Last time they met at the Gabba, it was Ah Chee and Cameron that were the difference, and we might expect them to be the same again.  Gold Coast will need to win the centre ball which Aderson and Rowell are more than capable of and then lock it in their forward line to try to starve Ah Chee and Cameron of supply.  I think they can do it.  Gold Coast by 9 points.