Round 0/Opening Round Preview 2026

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It’s official, the world has gone to the crapper.  Luckily, we can all choose a simple life and just watch the footy, which has returned this week after its annual hiatus.  I trust you were able to have a good off-season and catch up with family to the point that they’ve had enough of you and will leave you alone for the following 20-something weeks.  I say “20-something” as I really don’t know how long the season is anymore.  Firstly, we start counting at zero, I think, then some teams don’t start at zero and it seems like those teams only get one bye.  And now there’s some kind of wildcard round in play for some teams and so it all gets a bit confusing.  I feel like the following may be true: 

Number of matches in a season played by any one team is equal to e^iπ 

But who cares about numbers anyway.  I read an interesting article going over the numbers in the match statistics compared against Brownlow votes.  Based on that, it is clear that numbers mean nothing, even if umpires are allowed to look at them now.  Numbers also didn’t matter to the coaches in the State of Origin match, even if they use numbers to determine their entire season strategy but then ignore them when it comes to deciding who they think was best.  It’s a funny game at the best of times and numbers just seem to cloud the issue.

Luckily for you, I do all the number crunching, and I only use all the important and relevant numbers like, total dollars gained/lost by Lachie Neale or average “nose beers” per week by Bailey Smith and number of weeks license is suspended for Mykelti Lefau.  These are the key statistics that matter when it comes to footy tipping.

I get the Opening Round concept. I understand it.  I don’t like it though.  Does it feel a little off to anyone else that we seem to have some segregation in the sport?  There are the teams that are allowed to play in Opening Round and then there are the other teams.  The AFL has a special section on the bus where they’re allowed to sit.  Like I said, I get it.  Why not play a host of games up in the rugby states, especially while their off clowning around in Las Vegas?  But I suggest playing 9 matches up there.  But that will never fly because then it’s just Gather Round and we already have one of those.  Why not have three Gather Rounds?  Or better yet, take all of the games in any given Gather Round and distribute them evenly amongst the football states…there a solution.

Ok, enough problem solving, lets get this season under way.

Sydney vs Carlton            SCG                        Thursday Night

Despite the losses of some key posts in the off-season, Carlton looked pretty sharp in their pre-season hit outs.  Sydney were hampered by injuries early in the season last year and made a late charge once they had some talent back, but it wasn’t enough.  Now that Curnow is playing for Sydney, what are we to think?  Does this make their forward line stronger?  Probably.  Does it make Carlton’s forward line better being less predictable?  Probably.  Unfortunately for Carlton, the SCG just isn’t a happy hunting ground, having only won twice there in the last 30 years.  But that’s ok, it wouldn’t be an AFL season if Carlton didn’t have an early loss and Voss wasn’t under some kind of pressure.  If you melt your membership in a microwave does that burnt plastic smell permeate every meal you cook in there from then on?  Perhaps we could all chip in and get a communal microwave plugged in somewhere on Lygon St just for that purpose.  Sydney by 28 points.

Gold Coast vs Geelong  Carrara                 Friday Night

Not sure if Matt Rowell, the reigning Brownlow Medalist will play this one after breaking his finger in the State of Origin match.  I believe it was an overuse injury.  It was either too much pointing or too much communication with the WA crowd.  Gold Coast didn’t get the chocolates in the pre-season match in what was a high scoring affair.  But they looked better than Geelong did against Carlton.  However, Geelong has a pretty decent record at Carrara which, if we want to go back as far as 1992, includes a 164 point drubbing of the Brisbane Bears.  Ablett kicked 9 that day and host of other household names like Stoneham, Riccardi and Brownless chipped in.  But even Hutton from the Bears kicked 8 that day.  I guess both full backs were off at a Gold Coast seminar somewhere.  Despite Geelong’s dominance at the ground, I suspect that the tide has turned there and Gold Coast will be making it a fortress this year.  Gold Coast by 17 points.

GWS vs Hawthorn           Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

Most of the pre-season talk was around Zac Merrett clumsily trying to get to Hawthorn.  Both he and the club were all in on it and when it didn’t pan out, he had to quickly declare his undying love for Essendon.  Let’s see how long that lasts.  When all the news we previously got was Sam Mitchell having sneaking coffee’s and luring players, most felt pretty satisfied the deal fell through.  While Gold Cost got one half of the Dynamic Duo in Petracca, GWS got Clayton Oliver.  I note that neither are listed as players on those clubs websites so I’m not sure if it’s really true.  Will it help?  I don’t think they need help.  Hawthorn have only once won a match at Showgrounds, albeit it was the last time they went there.  But I don’t think it will be enough.  GWS by 21 points.

Brisbane vs Footscray    Gabba   Saturday Night

It’s the reigning premiers versus last years best team against teams outside the 8.  Last year Brisbane showed the way to build a season.  Don’t worry too much about winning early on, but when the matches counted, they stood up.  Last year Footscray laid down every time the match counted so it will be an interesting opening salvo.  Brisbane lost a couple of stars with Neale taking some time away to manage some serious life issues and Starcevich moving on to West Coast.  However, as if Brisbane’s talent pool isn’t deep enough, they also picked up Sam Draper and Oscar Allen to cause a bit of trouble.  Footscray offloaded Jamarra Ugle-Hagan but given the trouble he caused, perhaps that’s not such a bad thing.  I really feel like this match could go either way so best to stick with the home ground advantage early in the season.  Brisbane by 26 points.

Saint Kilda vs Collingwood          MCG      Sunday Night

Melbourne gets their cake and can eat it.  They jumped up and down quite a bit about not getting an Opening Round match and so now they do.  The 2010 finalists will square off in a fixture that most of the crowd should be able to get to after the Grand Prix.  It’s worth bearing in mind for St Kilda residents making the trip because all the trams do swing by Albert Park on the way to the MCG and it could get a tad busy.  Of course, the added bonus of having this match scheduled at the MCG is it’s a great way to squeeze in another home game for Collingwood, who normally had to travel for this fixture.  St. Kilda looked good in the pre-season with Wanganeen-Milera cutting a swathe through opposition and Tom De Koning, Silvagni and Liam Ryan making up the other big signings it will be a tough ask for Collingwood who had a bumpy pre-season with a host of stars picking up niggling injuries and may not be available for the first outing.  But will St. Kilda be comfortable playing in front of 80,000+ people?  Standing next to one guy at the urinal can be pretty uncomfortable sometimes and that can often affect performance.  Nothing that a dose of prostate medicine wont help with…some of you will know what I’m talking about (it’s like operating a fire hose, right guys?)  Anyway.  I think St Kilda will overcome their shyness too.  St Kilda by 12 points.