Round 3 Preview

Last Week           4/7           Season Total      13/21

The economic and global crises we are facing continue unabated.  We can all hope that someone gets bored of it soon, or they’ve made enough money in the ensuing profiteering phase, and everything can return to normal and we can all afford to take the car out for a trip to the local chemist again.  I accidentally paid $9 for a punnet of strawberries the other day.  I was outraged enough to plant the seeds myself.  Now I can grow my own strawberries and also package them in groups of composite numbers, rather than primes.

The fact there is footy on keeps surprising me.  I think because we have Opening Round and then bye rounds, it doesn’t really feel like the season has started yet.  And so, to my surprise, here are the tips for this week.

Geelong vs Adelaide     Kardinia Park                     Thursday Night

The cats had the week off, which is a good thing, and an advantage that comes from Opening Round messing up the fixture.  Of course, it’s not an advantage that Adelaide shares, although their advantage comes from Gather Round when, because of it, they get 3 matches at Adelaide Oval in a row, which can really help when trying to launch a campaign.  With all the advantages on offer, where are the disadvantages that are required to balance the universe?  Oh yeah, at the fuel bowser.  Anyway, I digress.  Adelaide are deplorable at Kardinia Park, not having won there since John Howard was Prime Minister.  Remember that time?  George W. Bush was President and Donald Trump was too busy filming the first season of The Apprentice to worry about global economics.  Diesel was $0.92/L and it had been 7 years since the release of Johnny Diesel’s ‘best of’ compilation album.  When you plug all of that data into any A.I., it will tell you, Geelong by 16 points.

Collingwood vs GWS     Marvel Stadium               Friday Night

Like The Cats, Collingwood had a week off.  The Daicii family spent that weekend down in Tasmania rubbing shoulders with Tasmanian Devil execs which was great fodder for those that like to tell tall tales about prospective trades.  GWS were mostly outplayed by St Kilda and almost came back in the last quarter to pinch it.  If only they had an extra 30 seconds.  If you don’t know what I’m talking about, the clock malfunctioned and 30s were lost in the game.  But that’s ok.  Integrity issues like ensuring the match time is correct is not that important.  So long as we have opening round.  Anyway, this game is at Marvel.  Collingwood loves this place about as much as Richmond.  Most people will count this as an away game for the Pies and as a result, GWS by 18 points.

St Kilda vs Brisbane        Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

Ross Lyon finally got the circuit breaking win he needed but now they come up against the reigning premiers who are probably feeling a bit lost and confused about having zero wins before the bye.  For some reason, while Brisbane are great, I kinda fancy the Saints in this one.  I don’t know why.  Everything sciency that I have built my life on says Brisbane is a Lock.  Brisbane have only lost thrice there in the last 6 years.  St. Kilda won the last 3 there but only against Melbourne, Essendon and North Melbourne.  And St Kilda hasn’t beaten Brisbane for 5 years.  It’s compelling.  That’s why, St Kilda by 3 points.

Fremantle vs Richmond                                Perth Stadium   Saturday Afternoon

It was a solid win by Freo last week against Melbourne.  Voss, aka The Prancing Pony, felt the wrath of the match review panel, fining him $1,000 for being a stupid idiot.  Richmond has lost a couple of important Lynch pins (pun intended) for long periods due to hamstrings among other things.  In Perth, I can’t see a young Richmond, despite the excitement of that kind of talent, getting up over Freo.  They have finals in their sights…even this early.  Fremantle should play Mason Cox this week.  Richmond supporters love him.  Fremantle by 45 points.

Essendon vs North Melbourne  Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

The heat has turned up on Essendon.  For whatever reason, they still have supporters and it sounds like they are starting to get passionate.  I think after 26 years without a premiership and 15ish years since the peptides thing, they are permitted to be a be bit testy.  Apathetic is a word one might use to describe their performance last week.  North Melbourne also lost, but in more dramatic circumstances as they came up against a fired up young team of rookies looking to prove themselves on the tough streets.  It’s hard to mount a case for Essendon so I’ll pick North for the second week in a row.  Unprecedented!  North Melbourne by 21 points.

Port Adelaide vs West Coast      Adelaide Oval   Sunday Afternoon

After playing North, I thought Port were cooked but they looked a completely different side at home.  Or, a completely different side against Essendon.  Or, more likely, both.  Unfortunately, Rozee tore his hamstring off the bone in what has now become a “cluster” of hamstring injuries for the league, and this won’t help Port Adelaide’s season.  Is this cluster something to become concerned about?  Has the AFL’s rule changes to produce an increasingly faster and faster game come at the expense of footballers lives!?  The alarmist viewpoint is YES.  And who am I to disagree?  If it takes Nick Daicos to miss out on a Brownlow for the AFL to change the voting system, maybe we have to wait until Daics pops a hammy before the AFL will try and slow the game down.  But let’s not wish those kinds of things on anyone. 

As mentioned, the West Coast youth looked like they had something to prove last week, but that grossly undersells the contribution of their senior players.  It was a great all-round effort and a few more of those and we might be able to say they’re back.  Which would be a welcome relief to many West Australians and to be honest the league is a better place when walkovers aren’t a regular occurrence so I’m all for it.  Given I live in West Coast heartland, I was out the back fixing my lawnmower during the match and could hear the roars and cheers from neighbours who have been silent these last few years.  It was a pleasurable sound, but then I heard the club song and called in a noise complaint.

This week we’ll see if Port Adelaide’s effort last week was because it was at home or against Essendon.  Port Adelaide by 24 points.

Carlton vs Melbourne   MCG      Sunday Afternoon

The Blues had a week off after a turbulent season start and Melbourne were brought back down to earth by a rampant and naughty Fremantle.  This is a tough match to pick.  Neither team is expected to be outstanding performers this year and that makes it difficult to tip.  The teams have changed so much that past history is meaningless.  It’s a toss of the coin job but I don’t carry cash these days.  The only thing I have in my reach is a three-sided dice that I found and when I roll it, it scores a K, and I don’t know what that means!?  I can sense they’re going to disappoint me but I’m taking it as a K for Carlton by 1 point.

Byes: Gold Coast, Footscray, Hawthorn and Sydney