Round 6 Preview

 Last Week           6/9           Season Total      26/45

I didn’t see any of the footy on the weekend and I’m at pains about watching any of the replays because I’m just not feeling it.  I did watch The Masters and Rory got the job done in unconvincing fashion showing that his not-quite-best is better than the rest at Augusta.  Can he do a 3-peat?  I’m tired from the late nights and early mornings though.

Luckily, I don’t need to watch any of the footy, I just have to refer to my plethora of text messages as people either give me crap about my team or groan about their own teams’ misfortunes.  From various groups of friends, I actually have a pretty good coverage of the league.  Based on that info, I was able to fill out the rest of the season’s ladder predictor and have determined it’s not worth watching.

The good news for the AFL is that there are only a few wins between top of the ladder and bottom of the ladder so there is no runaway victor just yet and in fact, you can still put money on any team to win the premiership, although my advice is don’t.  The only thing the AFL must worry about now is the backlash from inserting a wildcard round into the fixture and the ludicrous stuttering start to the season we continue to be subjected to.  To me it feels like the season starts this week.  So, by that we can consider those first rounds as the “handicap determination” rounds.  So, if your team is up near the top of the ladder they have been given the favour of the handicapper meaning they mustn’t be very good.  All the good teams have been handicapped severely and are down near the bottom to start the season.  You might think that is stupid (and you’re right), but it is a similar line of thinking that has both sides claiming victory in that silly war.  It is a liberating way to run your life.  State what you want to be true and any facts anyone presents you are merely a figment of their deranged mind.  Using this method, my team has already won the premiership, the season isn’t worth watching and I can get on with more constructive activities.

Carlton vs Collingwood                                 MCG                      Thursday Night

Is this Rivalry Round?  Maybe.  It’s always a rivalry between these two so let’s call it Rivalry Round.  Remember, if you say it, it’s true.  From all accounts Carlton put up a good fight last week and lost in an altogether different fashion.  It sounds like defence was not an option on the table last week.  Whereas it sounds like the Collingwood match was an awful spectacle made worse by two teams devoid of skill and rainy conditions to amplify that fact.  Collingwood got pipped in the end and I can imagine the commentators talked at length about how Collingwood are the champions of the close ones even though they are 8 from 17 in that since 2023.  You might be surprised to know that winning 50% of your close ones is about league average.  But that fact is just a figment of commentators deranged minds. 

Anyway, none of this helps us pick a winner here.  Carlton can expect a more defensive game this week as a malfunctioning forward line, leaves defence as Collingwood’s only option.  Collingwood should win this one, but they haven’t been playing champion footy so far this season.  I’ll give them a chance.  Collingwood by 15 points.

Geelong vs Footscray    Kardinia Park     Friday Night

The Cats got an early fright from a determined West Coast before taking control of the match and cruising to victory.  Hawthorn showed the way to defeating the all conquering Bulldogs.  This will be another tight match, but Kardinia Park has been kind to Footscray recently.  They lost their last one there in a high scoring affair but had won two times previously when they went with a more defensive game plan.  Containing Geelong’s outside run is the key to beating them and Footscray might just have the midfield to do it.  Footscray by 10 points.

Sydney vs GWS                                SCG        Friday Night

I don’t have much insight into last week’s matches here.  Both teams were on the winners list and they had comfortable victories.  Sydney are proving themselves to be the team to beat in these early rounds.  GWS welcomed back a few stars and put them to work against a still undermanned Richmond.  It’s hard to go past Sydney when they are on this kind of a run and the advantage that the SCG provides will be too much for GWS to bear even though they remain in town.  Sydney by 26 points.

Gold Coast vs Essendon                                Carrara                 Saturday Afternoon

The loss last week put a dent in Gold Coasts credentials, but they should remain on target to secure a home final or two which will be good for the economy.  For the first time in almost a year, Essendon supporters had something to cheer about with a win coming at the hands of a hapless Melbourne who faded away in the second half and effectively did a Carlton.  It was probably for the best anyway, as I understand Melbourne supporters only headed over to SA to check on their rental investments (tax deductible trip) and by leaving at half time they were able to perform a more thorough inspection.  Essendon will need more of that to beat the Suns on their home deck.  Gold Coast by 36 points.

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide         Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

The Hawks toppled Footscray and Port Adelaide were eventually outplayed by St Kilda.  I note that Butters got written up for saying something untoward to the umpire.  It sounded like a lovers spat.  Some of you have been there before, I’m sure.  When your partner won’t talk to you because you said something wrong but then because they’re not talking to you, they won’t tell you what you said wrong so you can’t fix it.  If only we all had a tribunal to resolve these quarrels.  Anyway, what does this mean for this match?  Butters will only get a fine, so he won’t miss but he also won’t change the outcome.  Hawthorn by 39 points.

Adelaide vs St Kilda       Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

After a few tight losses, Adelaide finally got the win they desperately needed.  It had also been a few weeks since St Kilda had tasted victory, so they felt more secure after their win.  Playing both Adelaide teams back-to-back presents a challenge and I don’t expect them to get over the line this week.  Adelaide by 25 points.

North Melbourne vs Richmond                 Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

Cellar dwellers of the last few years meet again.  North appears to be on the rise and Richmond are still bottoming out.  North Melbourne by 28 points.

Melbourne vs Brisbane                                MCG      Sunday Afternoon

After conducting their Adelaide rental inspections, Melbourne supporters can return home to the comfort of their quaint and cozy mansions.  This week they host Brisbane and it’s their first visit to the MCG after their second Premiership.  After a shaky start Brisbane have righted the ship and no bout of confidence in Melbourne’s new free game plan will help them.  If anything, they’ll get opened up.  Brisbane by 32 points.

West Coast vs Fremantle             Perth Stadium   Sunday Twilight

Last but by no means least, the Western Derby will be on offer for your viewing pleasure.  Fremantle finish up a double stint in Adelaide where they come away with 8 points to show for it, but West Coast looks a bit more determined this year.  Some of the West Coast players have been a bit belligerent this year so expect a few fireworks early, but Fremantle will eventually grind this one out and cement their top 4 credentials.  Fremantle by 43 points.