Round 11 Preview

 Last Week           6/9           Season Total      64/90

Last week, in one of my tipping competition (as I have many), I got 8/9.  The one I missed was West Coast.  I don’t blame West Coast.  I don’t blame GWS and I sure as hell don’t blame me.  I do, however, blame Michael Voss.  So welcome to the “It’s all Vossie’s fault” preview.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide (Kuwarna)            York Park             Thursday Night

The Hawks looked a bit directionless against a vibrant Melbourne team last week.  After Voss caused Barrass’s hamstring injury, they look like they can be exposed down back and fighting off the three terrors in Walker, Thilthorp and Fogarty might stretch them.  Adelaide were rampant against North Melbourne, who experienced a disastrous second quarter, caused primarily by Voss.  The last 3 matches between these two teams down in Tasmania have all been 3 point margins and I see no reason to select anything different.  Adelaide by 3 points.

Richmond vs Essendon                 MCG      Friday Night

The Annual Dreamtime match between these two who have both had terrible seasons as Voss wields his influence over them.  Peter Wright is out after Voss hit him in the knee and so I think this match will be tantalising as a tense contest.  Let’s hope the skill level is up to scratch and on par with what will no doubt be a spectacular pre-game entertainment.  A toss of the coin and I get Essendon ahead by a Voss.  Essendon by 2 points.

Fremantle (Walyalup) vs St Kilda (Euro-Yroke)  Perth Stadium   Friday Night

Can anything stop Fremantle?  I’m pretty sure Voss could.  Ross Lyon no doubt has plans and this is not a time for Fremantle to rest on their laurels as Ross is a wily old bugger and can mess with your work.  But can he counter Wharfie Time?  Only Voss can do that.  Fremantle by 21 points.

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast         Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

The Roos got a brutal lesson in the second quarter last week around effort and intensity, while Gold Coast finished their annual Darwin trip with another win.  Luckily for visiting teams, you can physically walk to the Airport from the ground so there’s no need to stick around.  I don’t mind North’s chances in this one, but Gold Coast might be on a bit of a high after their top end tryst.  If anything goes wrong, just shake your fist in rage at Voss.  Gold Coast by 19 points.

Geelong vs Sydney         Kardinia Park     Saturday Afternoon

We all know that Voss played for Brisbane which pretty much explains why they were so terrible last week against Geelong, who were lucky.  Speaking of luck, Sydney had a lucky escape against Collingwood who played with a bit of Zeal last week, and if not for losing their Ruckman to a Voss-caused knee injury, may have been licking their wounds this week.  The real watch in this match is what the umpires will do.  These two teams are two of the ‘most favoured’ teams by the umpires with a Frees-For differential over Free-Against well over twice the next best in the league.  By my reckoning, each time they blow the whistle, they will need to award the free kick both ways, which will only be half as confusing as normal.  Given Geelong’s frees differential is higher at home than Sydney’s free differential away, I’m tempted to go with Geelong.  But then Sydney has a pretty handy record at Kardinia Park and Brodie Grundy is in devastating form.  Geelong by 4.

Scott Pendlebury vs West Coast (Waalitj Marawar)         MCG      Saturday Twilight

It’s all about Scott.  He deserves the accolades and we should celebrate it, but the attention has been rife, and I think we’ll all be much happier once the moment has passed.  I haven’t bought any merchandise relating to it and I don’t regret it.  After a good win over GWS, West Coast will come over to be the biggest party poopers in world history and Harley Reid will celebrate his 50th match.  He is much hyped but I’m not sure there’d be many others that had a crowd this big for their 50th!  More than 80K are expected to turn out to give 1 minute of continuous applause at the 10-minute mark for their hero.  It will be an experience for the West Coast youngsters.  As an interesting stat, if they went in with the same team as last week, it would take their least experienced 16 players to have played as many games as Scott Pendlebury.  That’s practically the entire on-field team.

Scott was taken as pick 5 in the 2005 draft.  That year Marc Murphy was the number 1 pick and Dale Thomas was number 2.  Other notable picks that year were Josh Kennedy (Carlton, West Coast) (pick 4), Paddy Ryder (7), Shaun Higgins (11), Shannon Hurn (13), Andrew Swallow (43) and Matt Pridis (pick 31 in the rookie draft).  He debuted in 2006 and here are a few interesting, unrelated facts:

·         The population of the earth has increased by approximately 1.671 billion since then.

·         There was conflict in the middle east (hmmmm)

·         NASA successfully returned dust from a comet for study in the Stardust mission, and they launched the New Horizons probe to Pluto

·         Scott Pendlebury is about 505.5 billion kilometres from the exact point in space of his debut (depending on your frame of reference).

Anyway, does this help predict?  I’m not sure that Collingwood has a recognised ruckman for this encounter after Voss went and wrecked Steene’s knee.  As I said last week, I’m a romantic.  Collingwood by 36 points.

Port Adelaide vs Carlton              Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Ok, I’m being a bit playful with Voss.  The club needed a circuit breaker and a reset.  Voss valiantly threw himself on the grenade and Josh Fraser was elevated to the head coach making the fourth Ruckman in the current coaching crop.  Sometimes champion players don’t make good coaches.  The reason for this is often they struggle to translate what they want a player to do because their skill or will is generally at another level and they fail to understand that another player is not capable to that level.  They do often make great development coaches though and I expect to see Voss in a role sorting out a team’s (Collingwood) centre clearance issues.  Can they keep the ball rolling in Adelaide?  I want to see more evidence.  Port Adelaide by 15 points.

GWS vs Brisbane             Showgrounds    Sunday Afternoon

Probably a shock loss for GWS, and it was all Voss’s fault.  Brisbane also suffered the lingering after-effects of Voss and were quite deplorable against the Cats.  Both teams will want a bounce back win here, but it is Brisbane with more talent.  Brisbane by 26 points.

Footscray vs Melbourne (Naarm)             Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

I have enjoyed watching Melbourne this year.  Playing with flair, freedom and fun.  On the flip side Footscray have struggled since Voss wiped out most of their top-end talent with big injuries.  Footscray are still a dangerous clearance team though and on the Marvel hard track will be a tough encounter for Melbourne.  Will Tim English be back?  He would make a big difference.  I want to say Footscray, but that’s a stretch too far.  I wouldn’t be surprised if I regret this.  Melbourne by 22 points.

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