Round 20 Preview

 Last Week           9/9          Season Total      106/153

It was certainly nice to get away for a few days.  Into some tropical heat.  But it’s back to the daily grind now.  Of course, the time I was away I scored a 9 out of 9 by putting my tips in a few weeks in advance.  Maybe there’s something in that.  A lot happened while I was away.  Spain won the World Cup and Argentina went the biff.  Ryan Fox won The Open at Royal Birkdale and was widely reported as the second New Zealander to win a major.  However there have been 4 so they got that wrong.  But then New Zealand often gets left off maps in movies so it shouldn’t come as a surprise.  The big news of course is that Ken Hinkley was appointed the inaugural Tasmanian Devils Coach.  Personally, I’m not sure on that choice but they must know what they’re doing.

Let’s get on with the preview as this season enters ‘The pointy end.’

Adelaide vs Collingwood             Adelaide Oval   Thursday Night

Two modern day rivals come together on Thursday Night.  Adelaide is making a run towards the top 2 and securing the crucial double-home finals and Collingwood have been stringing some wins together to get a bit of momentum to keep them in the hunt for a wildcard spot.  Collingwood has a great record at Adelaide Oval, only having lost there once to Adelaide in the last 10 years.  Adelaide have improved their defense but have some concerns around the middle.  Players like Jordan Dawson have been immense for Adelaide and will take a bit of work by Collingwood to nullify his impact.  Likewise, Daicos (either of them) will take a bit of effort by the opponent to minimize their impact.  There’s only 1.5 wins between them on the ladder so the difference isn’t as big as you might think, but I’m going to stick with the home team here who look a bit more polished in the big moments, although Fogarty will be a big loss to cover (he averages 2 goals per game against the Pies).  Adelaide by 12 points.

Melbourne vs Geelong                 MCG      Friday Night

While Melbourne has been unbeatable at the MCG, Geelong represents a pretty stern test of that record.  Geelong has been pretty poor in the last few weeks although they returned to the winners list last week back at their home cigar.  This is, of course, the first time that King faces his old boss, Scott.  Will this end in the same way when Obi-Wan Kenobi met up again with Darth Vader?  Both teams would like to play with freedom of ball movement, and I think this will be an entertaining game to watch.  If you’re not a West Australian, this is a good spot to sit down on a Friday Night.  Melbourne by 15 points.

Fremantle vs West Coast             Perth Stadium   Friday Night

The Western Derby has had better match ups.  First versus 16th takes away from this a little and despite marketing telling everyone that ladder position doesn’t matter, it absolutely does.  West Coast has been much improved this year but still unable to breakthrough enough wins.  Fremantle can’t relax, but they should win this easily.  Fremantle by 37 points.

Carlton vs Gold Coast    Marvel Stadium               Saturday Afternoon

This will be a very interesting game and crucial for both sides who might be hopeful of securing a wildcard spot.  Gold Coast have been deplorable in the last couple of months and Carlton, while excellent for 7 weeks in a row, have been left wanting in the last two matches.  I honestly don’t know who will win this one.  It could go either way.  I’m going to stick with the home team as Gold Coast have just looked really poor.  Let’s hope I don’t come to eat those words.  Carlton by 16 points.

Hawthorn vs Essendon                 MCG      Saturday Afternoon

After a win last week, Hird’s Essendon don’t want to take a step backwards here, but they are up against a formidable opponent in Hawthorn.  These teams used to have a great rivalry in another era, and it would be great to get back to it.  Not this week though.  Hawthorn by 67 points.

GWS vs Sydney                                Showgrounds    Saturday Afternoon

What happened to GWS last week?  Beaten by a team bereft of hope.  Sydney was out-bullied by Adelaide in their own living room.  We witnessed a baking for the ages from Adam Kingsley in a documentary recently and I’d love to see the baking they got after that performance.  They’ll be fired up for this Battle of the Bridge and Sydney will need to be careful.  Once premiership certainties they have slipped in the public view during the mid-season grind.  Time for them to stand up again and be counted.  Sydney by 11 points.

Footscray vs Richmond                 Marvel Stadium               Saturday Night

The Tigers are counting down time to Mad Monday and I don’t think they’ll put up enough resistance in this match up.  Footscray by 26 points.

Brisbane vs Port Adelaide           Gabba   Sunday Afternoon

It’s been one of those season with almost all teams going through some ebbs and flows.  Brisbane has come out of their Ebb and seems to be flowing again.  It’s a testament to their planning as they do look like they peak at the right time.  Port Adelaide are marking time until Mad Monday too.  Brisbane by 41 points.

North Melbourne vs St Kilda      Marvel Stadium               Sunday Afternoon

Both of these teams are striving to wrap up the last of the Wildcard spots so this should be a very entertaining game.  Both teams like playing at Marvel and with it being a typical Melbourne day outside the protection of the roof.  This is another tricky game to chance your arm on.  I shake my hand, the dice come out and it lands on…North Melbourne by 6 points.

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