Round 22 Preview

Last Week           5/9           Season Total      117/171

We have officially entered the pointy end of the season.  You know we have because AFL bosses and everyone else came out and started talking about the prospect of tanking in the final round of the home and away season in favour of a better chance in the finals.

For the top 6 teams it shouldn’t be an issue as they will get a week off anyway, such is the way the AFL decided to prioritise the final round of the season over the first week of the finals.  For the Wildcard teams though, it is an interesting debate.  Given the fixtures, it looks increasing like they will be in a position where the last round won’t affect their ladder standing and the temptation to ‘large volume water storage device’ would be high.  The AFL have come out swinging talking about how hard they would come down on any team thought to be doing that.  I don’t really like that.  There are arguments each way.  The AFL might talk about integrity but from their standpoint, if a team decides they’re resting a bunch of players it is likely to affect ticket sales and make betting companies very angry and as we know EVERY decision the AFL makes has profit as the key driver.  But from the team’s perspective, the AFL has absolutely no problem with them ‘managing’ players in any other round of the season, why should the final round be any different?  And what about us supporters?  Would you prefer that your team rested players and won the Grand Final or played all their best players, losing some to injury and crashing out in an elimination final?  But no one thinks of the little guy, do they?

I also saw a story that women were in trouble in Le Tour because there is suspicion they are padding their bras for an aerodynamic advantage.  This sounds like the sort of hair-brained scheme a teenage boy would have cooked up to cop a feel.  He would have flashed his impressive badge, identified himself as a qualified inspector there to inspect the boobs…for compliance reasons of course.  But it would never have worked, gutsy move though as it sounds like someone’s trying it on.  I’ll laugh if they uncover a winged keel.

These last rounds look abysmal.  They are scheduling all of the good games to be done by Friday Night and leaving matches only rusted on supporters would watch for the weekend.  I’d say it’s great as we can reclaim the weekends but of course, this week my own team is on a rare travel and is in town, so I’ll be wasting half a day acting like a lunatic and teaching my son new and expressive words.

Good luck…if you need it.

Footscray vs North Melbourne Marvel Stadium               Thursday Night

It would take some kind of intervention from some kind of deity for North to make the Wildcard from here.  Footscray still need to secure their spot as St Kilda and GWS are still an outside chance.  Footscray took the unprecedented step of resting all of their goal kickers last week and used the classic tactic of turning the game into an utter pile of crap to watch.  It didn’t work and they lost because, surprise, surprise, they couldn’t kick enough goals.  North were tough to shake last week but ultimately went down to the Hawks down in Tassie.  I think this might be a good game but being on Thursday night I have a strong desire not to watch it.  If you need to make up some points, go against the favourites.  Footscray by 15 points.

Brisbane vs Hawthorn                   Gabba   Friday Night

One of the matches of the round and with a bit of extra spice since Brisbane got toweled up by Carlton last week.  If you’re on the hook for the 3-peat, you’d have had your confidence rocked.  Equally, if Hawthorn want to lay down their premiership credentials, this is the place to do it.  Rolling over here would just about put a line through them as being up to the task.  This is another game where a bold tip could gain you a point, but the expectation is for Brisbane to bounce back on home turf.  Brisbane by 10 points.

Melbourne vs Fremantle             MCG      Saturday Afternoon

This is the last of the decent games for the weekend.  Melbourne still have desires for winning, but Fremantle have top spot stitched up and probably wouldn’t care less if they dropped a game.  In fact, Longmuir would likely point out that dropping a game might actually sharpen them up.  I do need to catch up a few points, and I like that Melbourne know every blade of grass on the MCG.  Melbourne by 12 points.

Sydney vs Port Adelaide              SCG        Saturday Afternoon

The Power are a bit beaten up at the moment.  Despite any valiant efforts on behalf of the cattle they have left, it won’t be enough to overcome a fired-up Sydney on their home patch.  Power are pretty good at the SCG though, but I still don’t think it will be enough.  Sydney by 32 points.

Geelong vs Essendon                    Kardinia Park     Saturday Afternoon

One team that doesn’t have to worry about tanking in the final round is Geelong.  They play, 18^th, 13^th and 17^th on the run home, which is effectively 3 byes anyway.  The thing Geelong will have to worry about is whether or not they’ve played enough high-octane pressure footy and are tuned up.  Taking a 4-week holiday before an elimination final is not ideal preparation.  For Essendon, if you’ll pardon the pun, this game will be a lot like Hirding Cats.  Geelong by 88 points

Adelaide vs Richmond                  Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Speaking of cats, the Tigers head on over to Adelaide to take on the Crows.  Cats regularly kill birds, but Crows are smart.  Not Nigel Smart, just intelligent.  They should account for the Tigers.  Adelaide by 54 points.

GWS vs Gold Coast         Manuka Oval     Sunday Afternoon

It was a good win by GWS last week as they continue to have a season seemingly designed by a WW2 Enigma machine.  And if seasons were ciphers, then Gold Coasts would be the Caesar cipher – generally rubbish and easily cracked.  Technically, GWS could still make the Wildcards, but they are at the point of relying on other teams to fail.  That’s miracle territory.  Both teams playing out the motions so it’s potentially a game where you could pick up a point if the favourite gets lazy.  GWS by 22 points.

West Coast vs Collingwood         Perth Stadium   Sunday Afternoon

I saw about 5 minutes of last week’s game between West Coast and Richmond.  It was riddled with errors and could have been funny in a comical slapstick kind of way but just looked sad an depressing instead.  It is tough to build a case for West Coast in this one, but earlier in the season I wouldn’t have tried to build one at all.  At least now they are more competitive, just lacking a bit of polish that comes with more experience.  They also come up against a banged-up Collingwood outfit. No Maynard, Perryman, Howe and Moore means they have no backline to speak of.  De Goey and Lipinski out puts a dent in their midfield, and we all know they haven’t had a forward line since the Rocca brothers (who are in town watching the Italian Soccer Derby).  But someone over at Collingwood needs to avoid the WADA urine collector this because they’ve obviously smoked a tonne of Mary J and told The Herald Sun they’re still a chance to go all the way!  I can’t tip West Coast because The Pies still have the experience and the composure but this is another case of “if you need a point…” Collingwood by 16 points.

St Kilda vs Carlton           Marvel Stadium               Sunday Night

If Carlton don’t appoint Fraser now, then there is really something rotten going on over there.  They kicked 24.10.154 against the best side in the last 3 or so years.  They look like they are enjoying playing footy and when the players speak of Fraser it sounds like they actually like the bloke.  I know Collingwood loved him when he coached their VFL side and I think the sport needs him to be fronting pressers. He seems to be thriving.  Carlton look like a completely different team, and Fraser is to be commended, and I think he should get the job.  Anyone who has submitted their application should probably just withdraw. 

But then they come up against Ross Lyon.  A master strategist and guy who treats press conferences like they are a chore a bit less enjoyable than scrubbing the latrines!  He’ll have a plan to make the day very unenjoyable for Fraser.  But they’ve got nothing to lose and like their chutzpah.  Carlton by 21 points.