Round 24 Preview
Last Week 6/9 Season Total 130/189
There is a lot that could be said this week what with the goings on at Sydney. I won’t dive into any of that as I’m pretty sure you can find out more than I know from the many other sources available. Needless to say, what were they thinking? I’d say they weren’t thinking and I’ll leave it at that.
Last week we had two draws which I’m 100% sure no-one had put that scenario into the ladder predictors!? Not only that, but Collingwood and Hawthorn drew for the second time in the season with Dylan Moore again holding the fate of the match in his hands after the siren. People will tell you the chances of that happening are some large number to one, but if you work out the numbers officially, you’d be surprised that it works out to be reasonable commonplace. The fact that its never happened before and won’t happen again are just figments of your imagination. It’s one of those cool things about Math’s. While being good with numbers, mathematicians will trick you with words. For example, the lottery trick is that the chances that you win the lotto twice in your lifetime are much lower than the chances that someone wins the lotto twice in a lifetime. In fact, with a bit of mental gymnastics, you can prove that winning the lotto twice in a lifetime is an absolute certainty, but then I’ve never met a mathematician that was a good gymnast. Most of them were in fact beaten up for being bad at sports but now make more money than those idiot Jocks. Or have I been watching Revenge of the Nerds again?
It’s the last week of action for some teams and until Sunday Night, or was it early Monday morning, the round looked disastrously boring.
St Kilda vs Gold Coast Marvel Stadium Thursday Night
Even though St Kilda is a game and half out of the Top 10, they can still make it. This would involve the AFL handing down a premiership points sanction on either Geelong or Sydney for their recent transgressions so it might be worth them still trying…stranger things have and will continue to happen. The big question here is which cue’s will be put in the rack. Will the AFL sanction a team for resting players in a game that means nothing to anyone except the betting companies? Gold Coast have looked a bit more competitive the last couple of weeks, but I still think St Kilda will win this one. Saint Kilda by 21 points.
Collingwood vs Brisbane MCG Friday Night
There isn’t anything in this game for Collingwood. There has been much speculation around who should be resting this week despite the threat of a penalty from the AFL. Daicos hasn’t had a break for 3 years and Darcy Cameron has shouldered much of the ruck load this season. Luckily for The Pies they might have some old-timers available to come in to make it look like they are actually trying. This includes Maynard who it was reported had a procedure on his pes anserinus. I don’t know what that is, but I know I’m too scared to google it on my work computer!?
For Brisbane, there is, all of a sudden, a lot riding on this game. A win here would guarantee they play Sydney in the first week of finals, which is now a much more favourable proposition. This would then (in all likelihood) guarantee a home Preliminary Final. By my calculations a win of about 5 goals would mean that Hawthorn has to beat West Coast by about 12 goals which I reckon could be a bridge too far. They’ll throw everything at this. Brisbane by 44 points.
Carlton vs Fremantle Marvel Stadium Saturday Afternoon
This is where the AFL stuffed up. They issued a memo to all clubs warning them not to make it obvious they were tanking in the last round of the season. However, if Collingwood tank and Fremantle tank, this would set up a Collingwood vs Carlton Wildcard final which would likely draw a bigger crowd than the Grand Final. Sucks to be the AFL I suppose. Josh Fraser has been installed as the permanent coach of Carlton. A wise decision as he has been excellent and the board can now claim they were only doing what the fans wanted so if it goes pear-shaped, the blame is on the Members, and the board can keep their skins clean. Could Fraser be the first interim coach to be awarded Coach of the Year? I would argue that he deserves it.
I don’t know what Fremantle are going to do here. In all likelihood players might be a bit tentative at the ball as no one wants to miss out on this tilt at glory through some silly injury. Carlton plays at Marvel Stadium very well and so I rate Carlton a strong chance to come out with the chocolates. In fact, I’m going with psychology rather than science. Carlton by 17 points.
Melbourne vs Footscray MCG Saturday Afternoon
Continuing the psychology bit, what will be going on in the minds of these two clubs? For Melbourne, they probably have to win (even without van Rooyen). A loss will likely see them tumble into the Wildcard zone. With a win they will likely stay where they are but could finish as high at 3rd if ridiculousness comes to town for the teams above them. For Footscray, they absolutely must win. By winning they stay in Melbourne for the Wildcard match against Collingwood, and a loss would see them off to Adelaide to take on the Crows. Arguably a much harder task. But Footscray will have the benefit of foresight as what they must do depends entirely on whether or not Carlton wins. If Carlton loses, who cares about winning. Melbourne by 20 points.
Geelong vs Richmond Kardinia Park Saturday
Night
This is a nothing game. Geelong will win, but the margin is important. They need to win by as much as possible to dislodge Hawthorn from 4th spot and secure the double chance (assuming Hawthorn and Melbourne lose – unlikely). Geelong by 58 points.
Adelaide vs GWS Adelaide Oval Saturday
Night
If The Crows can win by 168 points or more, they will likely elevate themselves out of the Wildcards. Or if Melbourne or Geelong lose of course. But getting over an erratic GWS is not an easy task. They’ll either come out and belt you off the park or lose while looking like the worst team of the year. Adelaide by 31 points.
Essendon vs Port Adelaide Marvel Stadium Sunday Afternoon
What a relief the end of the year has come for these sides. It wouldn’t surprise me if after the coin toss, they just call it there and walk off and spare us all the pain and suffering of sitting through this one. Important decisions loom for these two sides, as Butters attempts to work through his dance card which is now overflowing with offers and Essendon starts a long and protracted dance in the decision over who is best to coach them. If only it was as simple as Carlton. But there is much in-fighting and mud-slinging to happen before they eventually make the wrong call. Essendon by 1 point (or tails).
Sydney vs North Melbourne SCG Sunday
Afternoon
This game will be worth tuning into for the spectacle itself. The media throng will be intense and then how will Sydney look without five of their best players. Will the AFL fine the club for tanking after making such wholesale changes in spite if the memo sent? Sydney still have many good players but there could be a lot of mental scars as they all get dragged through the media all week. Even the reaction of the crowd will be worth watching for.
In the end we just hope that everyone involved has the support they need and their voices justly heard and respected. I think, though, this is too much turmoil for the club. North Melbourne by 16 points.
West Coast vs Hawthorn Perth Stadium Sunday Evening
One last hurrah for West Coast this year
and I think they’d like nothing more than to upset Hawthorn’s apple cart. They’ll be saying goodbye to a couple of club
/ premiership legends, and the crowd will be engaged as usual. Hawthorn will have the benefit of knowing all
the other results and will have the exact mathematical formula to engineer
their desired outcome. Their destiny
will be in their own hands. At home on
the couch, we’ll have to put up with the commentators explaining the graphic of
“percentage” to us 3 times per minute during the final quarter. Hawthorn by 37 points.
Comments
Post a Comment