Wildcard Finals Preview

 Last Week           5/9           Season Total      135/198

The season has run its course and it’s now time for the cream to rise to the top.  But who will that cream be?  A number of upsets last week as some teams didn’t try and others had to try hard.  The AFL should ask themselves, is it better to let clubs do what they want or better that they demand clubs play players and watch the clubs not try, because they don’t want to get injured and bench their star players for large portions of the match and lose by 10+ goals?  It wasn’t a good look in my opinion.

The round culminated in an emotional match between Sydney and North Melbourne and as with all things footy, a win cures everything.  The news cycle all but stopped, the pressure is released and suddenly it’s like nothing bad ever happened.  That’s also not a good look.  The players who didn’t do anything wrong were battered last week and their culture questioned, especially the ‘No Dickheads’ policy.  The problem is ‘No’ is a very definitive and measurable number, 0. A good Business consultant would never have allowed that.  The problem is that dickheads exist and they have a way of popping up when you least expect it.  They even work their way up to highest office of governments around the world (you know who I’m talking about).  In fact, the highest office of government is a dickhead aggregation device in my opinion. Anyway, a business consultant would have structured the KPI as, ‘we strive to reduce the number and intensity of dickhead acts over a year on year basis.’  Although this breach would still have caused management to miss their bonuses.

Enough of that, there is footy happening and we are in cut throat finals action.  Since the introduction of the pre-finals bye, this year we will finally be able to answer the question of whether or not the bye is disruptive to consistency or a benefit.  Well, we’ll answer that next week.

Footscray vs Collingwood            MCG      Friday Night

Either team could win this game.  Either team could lose this game too.  The one thing we know for sure is there won’t be a draw.  Let’s look at the last 5 games between these two teams.  Prior to that is what we call the “Pre-Nick Daicos era” and so does not provide relevant information.  Of those 5 games, Footscray won 3 and Collingwood 2.  Aside from the earliest one of those, the last 4 games have been by an average margin of just 10 points.  It’s hard to split them.  They’ve only played each other in 6 finals in their entire history and never once in a Wildcard final!

In past encounters the main avenue to goals for Footscray has been Naughton, Darcy, Weightman and The Bont.  Darcy of course is not playing.  On the Collingwood side, the main goal scorers have been Elliott, N. Daicos, Shultz and Hill.  Both Hill and Elliott are not playing, leaving more to do for the others.  Here is some interesting analysis on key Footscray Players:

·         Bontempelli gets a fair bit of ball playing against the Pies but he’s not as dominant as he is against other teams.

·         Tim English might count Collingwood as one of his bogey sides as he gets fewer hit outs against the Pies than he does against all other teams.

·         Ed Richards, on the other hand, loves playing the Pies and averages more disposals against Collingwood than any other team.  He’s also generally cleaner with ball, hitting his target more often than not.

How does that compare to Collingwood’s key players?

·         Darcy Cameron hasn’t played many games against Footscray.  Pivotal to the Pies but an unknown quantity in this match.

·         Jordan De Goey likes sharing and against Footscray has more Goal Assists than against any other team.  It’s understandable though because Footscray is also the only team that he has kicked more behinds than goals against.  He probably prefers to dish it off than have a ping himself.

·         The opposite might be true for Nick Daicos.  Not the sharing kind, having only one goal assist in all his matches against Footscray.  Maybe he doesn’t want to share because against Footscray he has to work his hardest to get the ball, with his highest ratio of contested possessions to uncontested possessions coming against the Bulldogs.

Does any of this help choose a winner?  Am I lifting the skirt of my statistics engine just a little too much? What will the weather be like and will this have an influence?  Exactly how do you adjust the spring tension in a 1947 period Swiss chronograph?  All these things buzzing around my head and none of them landing anywhere remotely useful.  To the dice!   Collingwood by 7 points.

Melbourne vs Carlton   MCG      Saturday Night

These are the two fairytale teams of the season.  Melbourne weren’t supposed to amount to much with a new coach and all and Carlton looked like they were going to be demoted to a different grade until in swooped a new coach.  Both coaching wonders and they’ll clash here at the MCG in the first meeting between these two since Fraser has been at the helm.  The first time they met this year was in Round 4.  A Voss-led Carlton slipped into an all-too familiar pattern getting out to a 6 goal to 0 lead in the first quarter.  The second quarter they maintained that 6-goal lead, but in the second half, Carlton capitulated and were over-run in the final quarter as Melbourne kicked 8 goals to 2.  I don’t think Melbourne will get such a luxury this time around. 

This new-look Carlton are confident, plucky and seem to be able to execute.  Fresh off their two young guns both winning nods at the All-Australian Awards Night, Carlton have shown in the last several weeks that this footy caper is easy.  I don’t imagine that Fraser has simply implemented some kind of new and strategically superior game plan.  I expect he has just got them to sharpen up their skills a bit and told them to go out and have some fun.  Whatever his pixie dust is, it’s working.

But Melbourne are also full of confidence led by man-mountain and All Australian Captain in Max Gawn.  He’ll be aiming for 9x10⁶ hitouts and we’d consider that under-performing.  They’ve been playing a brand of loose defensive footy with the idea of “You kick as many goals as you want…we’ll just kick more.”  They’ll miss van Rooyen who is still serving suspension after giving Aliir Aliir an unscheduled nap.

There are some mouth-watering match ups which will be pivotal in deciding who wins this one. 

·         Max Gawn will dominate, but Carlton have a very good clearance division and might just get first use of the pill more often than not.

·         Patrick Cripps is decidedly average against Melbourne.  I don’t mean that he is no good, I mean that he generally achieves exactly his career averages in almost every statistic when he plays against Melbourne.  No outliers at all.  The only thing he excels at against Melbourne is taking running bounces.  I’m not sure that will influence the outcome a lot?

·         Harry McKay isn’t much chop against Melbourne, but maybe that’s because in the past, Steven May would mind him.  He has the lowest number of scoring shots against Melbourne and Melbourne is the only team he has never had a scoring assist against.

·         Sam Walsh also doesn’t like sharing against Melbourne, with matches against the Demons being his lowest number of goal assists.

On the Melbourne side of things.

·         Bayley Fritsch is usually one to watch.  He has a habit of kicking clutch goals but is usually well held against Carlton.

·         Pickett is not usually one for clearances, but his new role in the centre this year will make him important to help out against the slick clearance machine that is Carlton.  He is always reliable for goal assists against Carlton though.

·         Tom McDonald might be one to watch.  He likes kicking goals against Carlton, but Carlton is also the team he gives away the most free kicks against.  But that might cancel out as he usually receives the most free kicks when playing against Carlton.

Once again, does this help?  Are there statistics that actually tell you who will win?  Will the MCG with 90K fans intimidate any of these players? What is the takeoff velocity of a Pteranodon in a 15-knot crosswind at sea level?  Try as I may to pluck an answer on any of those points, it is out of my grasp.  To the dice!  Carlton by 9 points.