Elimination & Qualifying Finals Preview

Last Week           1/2           Season Total      136/200

Spare a thought for Collingwood supporters.  I mean don’t linger on them or feel sorry for them, they are Collinwood supporters after all.  But if you thought of your clubs equivalent to their weekend, you’d be shattered, wouldn’t you?  They lost their match after a miss after the siren which ended their season, the outright second longest serving player, Steele Sidebottom retired.  Then, they would have woken to the news that the greatest champion in club history is moving to the Gold Coast, without so much as a goodbye and then later that night, their bitter enemy, Carlton won their match sending them past them into the finals proper, having won less regular season games than them and being coached by a former Collingwood champion!  Personally, I can’t think of a worse weekend for them.  But they’re out now so who gives a shit!?

The AFL would be happy with the Wildcards so it’s fair to say they are here to stay.  173,000 people attended the two matches as well as the countless watching on the cathode ray tubes and listening on their crystal radio sets.  I still don’t like it, and nobody really would, with the exception of Carlton supporters.  The reality was that Footscray and Melbourne were forced to defend their legitimate right to play finals, Collingwood who didn’t make it in the first place, still didn’t make it.  Carlton has no right, but they’re in anyway at the expense of Melbourne.  Let’s see if they can keep the fairytale going.

The other big news is that Mark McVeigh got the job at Essendon.  He’s allowed to keep until Hird undermines him.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn                Perth Stadium   Thursday Night

It’s officially Wharfie Time.  Fremantle have been waiting a few weeks for this match so let’s hope for their sake that they don’t get overwhelmed when it finally happens.  You might remember that the match between these two was the one where Wharfie time was rolled out for the one and only time, yet it has carried such gravitas that everyone feels like it’s been played more often.  Freo has had the luxury of resting a few in the weeks leading up to this match and Hawthorn have been a bit shaky in the back half of the year, not having beaten a team in the top 8 since Round 12.  I think that trend will continue.  Freo by 23 points.

Geelong vs Carlton         MCG      Friday Night

Of all the darned things to happen.  Carlton’s fairytale run continues and to be honest, this is what the Wildcard was built for.  Setting up a team that has momentum to have a red-hot go.  And now they find themselves up against Geelong, a team they have beaten 4 out of the last 5 games.  For Geelong this is the exact opposite of what they would have wanted because if they had Melbourne, this was a team they have beaten 4 out of the last 5 games.  Geelong don’t seem to play as well against Carlton.  They’re the only team that Shannon Neale has never kicked a goal against.  The only one who goes well is Jack Martin who has his highest disposal average against Carlton.  It’s not that Carlton players play better against Geelong.  It appears to be a full team effort that gets them through.  Will we finally hear the words, “And they lived happily ever after…” this week or will the fairytale continue?  Geelong by 15 points.

Sydney vs Brisbane         SCG        Saturday Afternoon

It was a stirring victory against North Melbourne the week prior after what can only be described as a week from hell.  Still much to play out there and it’s fair to say beating North is one thing but beating Brisbane who are on target to steam roll through to a Grand Final is a whole other level.  Even at full strength, Sydney has only beaten Brisbane a few times in the last 8 years.  But then the games aren’t played at the SCG often and Brisbane have only won 3 matches there since their last three-peat.  I honestly don’t know how to go with this one?  I don’t know what’s happening at Sydney?  How their psyche is affected?  They seemed pretty damn galvanized last week but now the pent up emotion is released will they be that good again?  What I do know is that Brisbane is an amazing side and will take some beating.  Brisbane by 18 points.

Adelaide vs Footscray   Adelaide Oval   Saturday Night

Footscray are through after a Collingwood miss after the siren.  They deserved to win and it would have been criminal if Collingwood pinched it.  Now they’ve earned the right to travel to Adelaide and try and upset the Crows on that lush Adelaide Oval grass.  It’s not an oval they win at very often and even more, in the seven wins they’ve had there, only one of those has been against Adelaide.  Although that was in Round 3 this year so there is some recency bias to deal with.  Adelaide will be primed.  Disappointed in the way they exited last years finals on their home deck.  The tall forwards will be almost impossible to contain, and Adelaide’s clearance game will be more effective than Collingwood’s.  The umpires will be hot on all those Footscray Frows (throws) that they excelled at last week, although the Crow Throw is also an effective weapon and maybe the umpies should just let it go as they’ll cancel each other out.  Getting more use than the Pies did out of the centre will be the real value for Adelaide and the defense of Footscray is going to struggle with that.  Adelaide by 26 points.