Grand Final Preview

 Last Week           2/2           Season Total      141/208

The decks have almost been cleared now for the ultimate reason we go through a whole season of footy matches.  There is only one hurdle to clear, the Grand Final and then we can get on with the real media circus, which is the Trade Period.  I jest, but sometimes it does feel that this is the only thing that the AFL media really care about as the Grand Final winning team gets about 10 minutes of clear air for stories before it all gets bogged down with player movements.

It’s been a busy week so let’s go through it all.  Firstly, the Preliminary Finals, or as I refer to them, The Peoples Finals were absolute gems.  The clutch goal by Hayden Young on the three quarter siren which gave Fremantle the impetus to get up for the win was a cracker.  Then we were treated to something amazing on Saturday, which is perhaps the exact sort of game that the AFL has been trying to manufacture with all their rule changes for the last umpteen years.  I fear the corporate dominated Grand Final might be a letdown after that.

Of course, on Monday Night, Nick Daicos finally won the coveted Brownlow Medal.  We, the viewing public at home, were subjected to awkward Red Carpet interviews and questions about dress designers and inside the count went on.  Even with the benefit of statistics, the AFL umpires served up a few head-scratchers but all in all the count went as expected and Daicos won in a canter.  His main rivals were Butters and Bontempelli who next year will be stealing votes from each other, so an early prediction is for Daicos to go back to back.  In the end, Daicos scored more votes than Essendon and Richmond combined, but more damning for Collingwood is that he scored almost twice as many votes than the rest of Collingwood.  To win a premiership, a broader contribution from players might be necessary.

Then, to ensure media had something to write and talk about all week, the Lachie Neale suspension news dropped.  At the time of writing, Neale lost his tribunal hearing and has launched an appeal which won’t be resolved until Thursday night which effectively means the media don’t need to report anything about the game at all.  The cynic in me thinks they like this because talking about Brisbane winning another one is only slightly more banal than talking about some other interstate team like Freo.  Even the West Australian doesn’t like talking about Freo.  However, I do like the way the tribunal played out, and it is worth writing about.  Brisbane argued that he didn’t punch Ginnivan (an altogether punchable kind of guy) but that he ‘body checked’ him and also, he is a ‘good bloke’ with a 320 match clean record.  Unfortunately for Lachie, I believe the prosecution were able to bring in Jules Neale as a witness who not only ruined his ‘good bloke’ defense but also suggested that he used the excuse that he just ‘body checked’ that girl in the back of the car that night and suddenly his case was dead in the water.

Many players have missed Grand Finals due to suspension, and the fact that this was an off the ball behind the play incident reduces the weight of any valid defense.  What was Neale thinking putting himself in that position?  I guess we’ll find out on Thursday night.  Ironically it was Brisbane Lions CEO Greg Swann that led the brigade in the AFL cracking down on these gut punches.  Maybe he could argue Ginnivan was choking and he was simply performing the Heimlich Maneuver.

Lastly, there is debate over whether the fan activations should be allowed at the Grand Final.  This is goal songs for Brisbane and Wharfie Time for Fremantle.  Definitively the answer should be ‘no’.  Don’t open yourself to future exploitation as teams roll out all manner of stupidity.  And in any event, actual participating teams fans struggle to get a ticket to this match anyway.  Your average executive swigging a nice Pinot from his $2,000 wine package that he paid to attend this one isn’t going to appreciate Country Road belting out or ACDC playing on a bagpipe.

Ok, let’s look at this Grand Final Match Up.

Fremantle vs Brisbane MCG      Saturday Afternoon

Before we go any further, you should know that at the end of this preview, I’ll be tipping Brisbane.  They have the record and having done it a couple of times already, I think they get it done again.  The old adage that you have to lose one to win one might ring true (probably not really, but let’s roll with that anyway).  Let’s look at this match in detail and see if we can build a case for Fremantle.  This being the case, the preview will be Fremantle centric about what they need to do, but needless to say, for Brisbane to win, don’t let Fremantle do what I say.

The Cattle

Brisbane has classy players in all facets of the game.  This finals series has been dominated by Centre clearances and so the middle is where a lot of the action will be.  Draper has had a very good year, and Luke Jackson is, despite all technical definitions, a Unicorn and will be tough to beat.  Darcy Fort is a good back up, as is Mason Cox, one of only two Freo players with Grand Final experience.  Both teams have good clearance engines, but a lot will depend on Lachie Neale getting off because he leads Brisbane’s disposals, contested possessions and clearances.  Most importantly is the free kick differential Lachie brings having received 32 for the season but only giving away 7.  This is better than anyone else on the ground by a country mile.  The rest of the match ups are inconsequential…read further to understand why?

The Overall Strategy

Most ‘experts’ (and I use this term because they have all played the game before and know waaaay more about it than me – but, where they have quantity of advice, I have quality) are saying Fremantle should avoid making it a shootout, but I think this is exactly what Fremantle need to do.  Freo has the firepower to score a lot of goals and they should use it.  Coming into finals, and you could argue during the finals too, Brisbane have not been very defensively minded.  They were ranked 13^th overall during the season and rely on the fact that they will outscore you.  This is exactly what they did last week and accounts for the recency bias of the experts but if you look at the season as a whole, the teams with weaker defensive structures who went all out attack fared very well against Brisbane while those who went defensive were blown away by Brisbane, mostly in the second half.  The thing is, if you go defensive, you burn up a lot of energy and against a team as good as Brisbane you won’t create a big enough gap and they’ll get you in the end as your energy starts to wane.  You can see in the defensive games they have played this year, they rolled over the top or extended the margin after half time.  Go forward and go hard is what Longmuir needs to tell his charges.  We know Fremantle have good fitness to go all the way to the end of this match.

The Start

Needless to say, the start is crucial.  Brisbane is going to settle quickly with all their experience and Fremantle’s young brigade need to be sure they are not overwhelmed and take 5 – 10 minutes to find their place.  The game could be over by then.  If at all possible, the Fremantle Psychology team need to somehow plant the sound of the Wharfie Time bells to go off in their heads just as the ball is bounced.  If I believed in hypnotism, I’d say to use this, but we also don’t want them running around in the first quarter thinking they are chickens.

I expect that Brisbane will try to hatch a plan and go uncharacteristically defensive in the first 5 minutes to apply an elite pressure level and try to frighten the socks off the Freo players before attacking hard and trying to put a big gap on them early.  Fremantle will need to weather this storm and fight fire with fire.

The Fleet of Foot

This final will be won by the small forwards.  Both teams have many that can cause trouble.  In the last match, Fremantle held Brisbane’s tall forwards to a single goal.  Once the ball gets to ground in Brisbane’s forward line, Fremantle needs runners coming though and pushing the ball forward.  This is not a defensive action, this is where they need to launch their attacks from.  Brisbane’s half backs will be playing up and if executed correctly, Fremantle can expose them to trying to defend the rebounding ball.  Fremantle’s tall forwards are more mobile and bustling so get out on a lead, crash some packs and Fremantle needs to guide the ball into the forward line rather than bombing it to restrict Andrews’ intercepting game.

The Norm Smith

I’m going to hedge my bets here and give you a tip each way.  It’s a return to old school voting and I’ll say the Rucks will win the day so Sam Draper for Brisbane or Luke Jackson for Fremantle.  Although take that with a grain of salt as the 2026 voting panel aren’t great fans of the Ruck!

Final Word

I’m hoping for a good contest, but that last Prelim is a tough act to live up to, and the Grand Final rarely (albeit sometimes) delivers.  Have I been able to talk myself into a Fremantle victory?  I think I can see it!?  Ignore what I said at the start.  Fremantle by 15 points.