Posts

2025 Finals Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

  Finals Week       0/2          Finals Total         0/6 Another disappointing week of football finals and another disappointing result from my tipping.   With only three matches left, the best I can do is get 33% and I think the best option for me now is to see if I can keep this going and go through the whole finals without tipping a winner.   Of course, I only have myself to blame by outing myself when I said that the games are too predictable.   But to be honest, I have been experimenting with this final series by tipping purely on feeling and not considering the stats at all, just to understand if my system really holds up.   Had I followed my system (which was outlined a couple of weeks ago) I would have 4 out of 6.   All of the action is off the field.   And I’m not just talking about the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo ...

2025 Finals Week 2 AFL Preview - Semi Finals

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  Finals Week       0/4          Finals Total         0/4 I got nothing right last week.   Zero out of four tips, really puts my finals tipping in a shambles which I won’t be able to recover from.   Creates a mockery of the 11-years of statistics I’ve been compiling just to get these games right.   How embarrassing.   It makes me wonder why I’ve spent, on average, 6 hours a week, compiling and analysing statistics like this.   Hopefully it is all data contributing to the growth and eventual dominance of our future AI overlords. As mentioned, I didn’t get to watch any of the footy as it was played, well, maybe half a match, but I would like to iterate what I was saying about how boring it is and that a game’s result is essentially decided in a single 8-10 minute burst. The other games are a little more complicated.  They have bursts w...

2025 Finals Week 1 AFL Preview - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Finals Week        0/0           Finals Total                          0/0 What a great weekend it was.   The weather where I am was amazing.   After 25 grueling weeks of footy, I was able to get myself re-acquainted with a bunch of people I like to call Family.   I also ripped through my back garden and removed all of the winter detritus and weeds.   Some of them were so big, I had to call in an arborist and go through a council planning permission process in order to remove them.   I resurrected the pool, and the kids even went for a swim in it, before shivering, turning blue and getting a cold and a few days off school this week.   I still have the front garden to go, but that is a much bigger task with excavations, lawn replacement and (if the wife approves) t...

2025 Pre-Finals Break – State Of The Game

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  Last Week      8/10     Season Total 152/207 (73.4%) We’ve reached that time of year again when we take a pause.   Not that anyone really wants one, but we are forced to sit through one anyway.   But this gives us time to reflect on the State of the Game.   If you’re a chronic reader or a masochist, then you’ve read all of my missives this year and noted that I’ve repeatedly said I’m getting a bit bored with the footy.   There’s just not that much in it these days.   I’ve been trying to pinpoint the reason why? What the Stats Say Is it because there is a clear two-speed economy going?   There are teams that have it and then teams that have not.   Most games are one sided and predictable and I think I only got 26% of my tips wrong just to mix it up a bit.   That could be it.   Or could it be that when I watch a game it’s usually pretty frustrating watching terrible ball movements patter...

Round 24 Preview

  Last Week           7/9           Season Total      144/198 It was an action packed week of footy last week with the trailing news being about Milera’s contract, Sheezels 54 and Rankine’s brain fart. We enter the final week of regular footy for 10 teams who must decide to play for pride or play for draft picks.   For the rest, it is all about equations.   Who do you play, do you win or lose and how much do you win or lose by are all factors that will affect ladder position with none of the top 8 sureties for any given spot.   We also have the extra match to preview this week so let’s dive in.   Essendon vs Carlton        MCG       Thursday Night Traditional Rivals will meet on the Thursday Night for a game that not many want to see.   With Essendon playing mostly kids, m...